2022 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 4, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Washington Commanders

New York Giants

WAS -2.5 upset40 pushCommanders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

A 20–20 tie. Biggest swing: OT 0:37, NYG +79% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:37WAS 20 — NYG 20WAS ball · 4th & 5NYG 98%

(:37) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 37, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James ran ob at NYG 43 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 51-D.Mayo).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:37NYG +79% win prob(:37) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYG 37, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James ran ob at NYG 43 for 6 yards (39-J.Reaves; 51-D.Mayo).
OT · 1:42NYG +63% win prob(1:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to WAS 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.
OT · 4:11NYG +39% win prob(4:11) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to NYG 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James to NYG 14 for no gain (35-P.Butler).
OT · 1:50WAS +24% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at WAS 45 for 0 yards (93-J.Allen).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:42WAS Field goal
(8:42) 6-J.Slye 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 3 — NYG 0
Q1 · 2:35WAS Touchdown
(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NYG 0
Q2 · 13:43NYG Field goal
(13:43) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NYG 3
Q2 · 8:54NYG Touchdown
(8:54) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — NYG 10
Q2 · 2:33WAS Field goal
(2:33) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 13 — NYG 10
Q2 · 0:05NYG Field goal
(:05) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: WAS 13 — NYG 13
Q3 · 11:40NYG Touchdown
(11:40) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 18-I.Hodgins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 13 — NYG 20
Q4 · 1:53WAS Touchdown
(1:53) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 1-J.Dotson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 20 — NYG 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Giants
Offensive plays	81	62
Total yards	412 (edge)	317
Yards per play	5.1	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	44%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	3/14	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

27/41, 275 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

25/31, 200 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.3 expected points added · +15.7% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

21 att, 96 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

12 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

8/12 for 105 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Darius SlaytonWR

6/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	5	22	1:54	Fumble
2	WAS	NYG 48	10	45	4:27	Field goal +3
3	NYG	NYG 25	5	-5	2:08	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 38	9	62	4:04	Touchdown +7
5	NYG	NYG 25	9	40	3:49	Field goal +3
6	WAS	WAS 25	5	9	2:11	Punt
7	NYG	NYG 19	6	81	2:38	Touchdown +7
8	WAS	WAS 25	13	46	6:21	Field goal +3
9	NYG	NYG 25	14	66	2:26	Field goal +3
10	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:02	End of half
11	WAS	WAS 23	4	0	0:49	Fumble
12	NYG	WAS 20	6	20	2:37	Touchdown +7
13	WAS	WAS 5	13	53	8:00	Punt
14	NYG	NYG 15	4	9	2:16	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 26	12	50	6:12	Missed field goal
16	NYG	NYG 42	4	4	2:18	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 9	4	2	1:26	Punt
18	NYG	WAS 47	5	13	2:39	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 10	9	90	1:58	Touchdown +7
20	NYG	NYG 25	5	0	0:28	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 12	7	26	1:04	Punt
22	NYG	NYG 16	1	0	0:13	Turnover on downs
23	NYG	NYG 27	6	9	2:27	Punt
24	WAS	WAS 33	6	24	3:29	Punt
25	NYG	NYG 14	8	41	2:28	Punt
26	WAS	WAS 10	4	5	1:08	Punt
27	NYG	NYG 43	5	17	0:28	Missed field goal

8 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	27/41	275	2	0	5	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	21	96	4.6	3.3
Antonio Gibson	9	39	4.3	0.2
Curtis Samuel	3	23	7.7	0.3
Taylor Heinicke	2	6	3.0	0.3
Jonathan Williams	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	8	12	105	1	30%	8.1
Curtis Samuel	6	7	63	0	18%	1.4
Jahan Dotson	5	9	54	1	23%	1.6
Antonio Gibson	2	4	20	0	10%	-0.2
Logan Thomas	3	4	20	0	10%	0.5
Brian Robinson	2	2	15	0	5%	1.0
Cam Sims	1	2	-2	0	5%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kamren Curl	9	2	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	7	3	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	5	1	1.0	0
Danny Johnson	5	0	1.0	2
Jon Bostic	2	3	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	2	0.0	0
Daron Payne	3	1	2.0	0
Darrick Forrest	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Holmes	4	0	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	4	0	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	25/31	200	1	0	4	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Daniel Jones	12	71	5.9	0	-1.2
Saquon Barkley	18	63	3.5	1	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	6	8	90	0	29%	2.7
Isaiah Hodgins	5	6	44	1	21%	3.8
Daniel Bellinger	5	5	24	0	18%	-0.4
Richie James	3	3	20	0	11%	-1.3
Saquon Barkley	5	5	18	0	18%	-0.6
Matt Breida	1	1	4	0	4%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Julian Love	10	2	0.0	0
Dexter Lawrence	3	5	1.0	0
Nick McCloud	6	2	0.0	2
Micah McFadden	3	5	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	4	0.0	1
Zyon Gilbert	5	2	0.0	0
Kayvon Thibodeaux	2	3	1.0	0
Jaylon Smith	1	3	0.0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	2	0.0	1
Tony Jefferson	1	3	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -2.5
Closing total: 40
WAS moneyline: -124
NYG moneyline: +113

Commanders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: WAS 7 days · NYG 10 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Brian Daboll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.