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Baltimore Ravens 16 at Pittsburgh Steelers 14. Final.
Steelers -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 14
Baltimore Ravens 16, Steelers 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 5:47, 2nd and 8, on Roquan Smith — 16.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:47 · 2nd and 8
Roquan Smith
Ravens
(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 18-R.Smith at BAL 10. 18-R.Smith to BAL 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Johnson).
U 37 ✓
Steelers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 5:47, Ravens +16.2% win probability on one snap.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Patrick QueenRavensQ2 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at BAL 8. 6-P.Queen to BAL 8 for no gain (30-J.Warren).
13.6pts
Chris BoswellRavensQ4 11:19(11:19) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
12.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 8 on third down, against Ravens at 4 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.16 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Ravens141 of 149 plays carry both curves
(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 18-R.Smith at BAL 10. 18-R.Smith to BAL 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Swing −16.2 for SteelersExpected points −5.15 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 3 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:47BAL +16% win prob(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 18-R.Smith at BAL 10. 18-R.Smith to BAL 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Johnson).
2nd · 0:26BAL +14% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at BAL 8. 6-P.Queen to BAL 8 for no gain (30-J.Warren).
4th · 11:19BAL +12% win prob(11:19) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
4th · 3:17PIT +10% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson to BAL 38 for 37 yards (44-M.Humphrey). PENALTY on BAL-92-J.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 38.
4th · 13:26PIT +10% win prob(13:26) 30-J.Warren right end pushed ob at BAL 34 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark). PENALTY on BAL-24-M.Peters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 34.
1st · 3:16PIT +9% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle pushed ob at PIT 4 for 44 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 42-yard field goal with 4:50 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:50Justin Tucker·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+33–0
Steelers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Ravens: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Ravens: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.16Steelers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 57 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Steelers’s 53 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Steelers 4.
NoteSteelers outgained Ravens 329-315 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 13 against 34.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Steelers13.0%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NotePIT's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 13.6% and 1.6 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 18-R.Smith at BAL 10. 18-R.Smith to BAL 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Q2 5:47 · Steelers · 2nd & 8 at BAL 17 · gained nothing · -5.15 EP · −16.7% win probability
139 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 149 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, manual charting on 128. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
149 of 149 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
149
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
638
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0662%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR34+0.2215%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1470%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2367%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.6714%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
149 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
149 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 34
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 45
Ravens3Steelers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Ravens9Steelers0
Ravens10Steelers0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Steelers 4
Ravens10Steelers6
Ravens10Steelers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Ravens 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Steelers 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Ravens 17
Ravens13Steelers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Steelers 17
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 23
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 48
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Steelers 46
Intercepted7 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Ravens 46
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 1 to the Ravens 16
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter40 plays
No good9 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Ravens 17
Ravens16Steelers7
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Steelers 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Ravens16Steelers13
Ravens16Steelers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
