2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -1.5 upsetU 37 ✓Steelers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Baltimore Ravens 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 5:47, BAL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:47BAL 10 — PIT 7PIT ball · 2nd & 8PIT 58%

(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 18-R.Smith at BAL 10. 18-R.Smith to BAL 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:47BAL +16% win prob(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 18-R.Smith at BAL 10. 18-R.Smith to BAL 29 for 19 yards (18-D.Johnson).
Q2 · 0:26BAL +14% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle intended for 88-P.Freiermuth INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at BAL 8. 6-P.Queen to BAL 8 for no gain (30-J.Warren).
Q4 · 11:19BAL +12% win prob(11:19) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q4 · 3:17PIT +10% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson to BAL 38 for 37 yards (44-M.Humphrey). PENALTY on BAL-92-J.Madubuike, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 38.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:50BAL Field goal
(4:50) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — PIT 0
Q1 · 2:36BAL Touchdown
(2:36) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 0
Q1 · 0:17PIT Touchdown
(:17) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 7
Q2 · 1:06BAL Field goal
(1:06) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 13 — PIT 7
Q4 · 3:22BAL Field goal
(3:22) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 16 — PIT 7
Q4 · 2:34PIT Touchdown
(2:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 16 — PIT 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	57	53
Total yards	315	329 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	44%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	40%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	4/12	4/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Steelers outgained Ravens 329–315 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

22/30, 276 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

6.6 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

8/12, 88 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.7 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

15 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

13 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

6/8 for 82 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

3/3 for 78 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	5	9	1:29	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 23	6	15	3:07	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 25	11	51	5:38	Field goal +3
4	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	1:30	Punt
5	BAL	PIT 48	3	48	0:45	Touchdown +7
6	PIT	PIT 36	7	58	2:18	Touchdown +7
7	BAL	BAL 23	8	43	3:36	Turnover on downs
8	PIT	PIT 36	9	37	6:02	Interception
9	BAL	BAL 29	10	49	4:32	Field goal +3
10	PIT	PIT 25	6	52	0:42	Interception
11	BAL	BAL 8	1	0	0:21	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 25	8	27	4:11	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 20	7	34	3:31	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 11	7	43	4:15	Interception
15	BAL	BAL 1	6	11	2:42	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 32	9	31	4:07	Missed field goal
17	BAL	BAL 30	13	57	7:55	Field goal +3
18	PIT	PIT 25	7	60	0:49	Touchdown +7
19	BAL	BAL 21	7	13	2:30	End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 60 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	8/12	88	0	0	1	1.7
Anthony Brown	3/5	16	0	0	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	15	120	8.0	1	6.1
Gus Edwards	13	66	5.1	0	-0.3
Tyler Huntley	9	31	3.4	0	-3.0
Patrick Ricard	1	2	2.0	0	0.4
Kenyan Drake	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Anthony Brown	3	-5	-1.7	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Demarcus Robinson	5	6	52	35%	2.2
DeSean Jackson	2	2	34	12%	3.3
Mark Andrews	2	6	17	35%	-1.1
Kenyan Drake	2	2	1	12%	-1.0
Devin Duvernay	0	1	0	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chuck Clark	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	5	1	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	5	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Queen	3	2	0.0	1	1
Marcus Peters	3	1	0.0	0	1
Roquan Smith	2	2	1.0	1	2
Calais Campbell	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	0	1.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	22/30	276	1	3	1	6.6
Kenny Pickett	0/1	0	0	0	1	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	12	33	2.8	1	-2.7
Kenny Pickett	2	16	8.0	0	1.2
Jaylen Warren	3	11	3.7	0	0.6
Benny Snell	2	4	2.0	0	-0.3
Steven Sims	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	6	8	82	0	26%	4.0
George Pickens	3	3	78	0	10%	4.8
Pat Freiermuth	3	6	33	1	19%	-4.0
Steven Sims	4	4	30	0	13%	0.4
Najee Harris	2	3	17	0	10%	1.2
Jaylen Warren	2	3	16	0	10%	0.2
Connor Heyward	1	1	13	0	3%	0.7
Gunner Olszewski	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.4
Zach Gentry	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	6	5	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	6	0.0	0
Myles Jack	3	3	0.0	0
Devin Bush	3	2	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	3	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	2	1.0	0
Damontae Kazee	2	2	0.0	0
Arthur Maulet	3	0	0.0	0
Chris Wormley	1	2	0.5	0
Cameron Sutton	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -1.5
Closing total: 37
BAL moneyline: +112
PIT moneyline: -124

Steelers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 30 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: BAL 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.