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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Panthers161 of 168 plays carry both curves
(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
Swing −12.7 for SeahawksExpected points −6.39 for SeahawksThe model had Panthers 2 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:05CAR +13% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
3rd · 0:40CAR +11% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Tremble (6-Q.Diggs) [10-U.Nwosu].
1st · 13:37SEA +9% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end to CAR 40 for 12 yards (39-T.Tabor).
3rd · 1:41SEA +9% win prob(1:41) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman right guard to SEA 3 for 2 yards (30-M.Jackson, 56-J.Brooks).
2nd · 0:20SEA +8% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:54SEA +8% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles up the middle ran ob at SEA 24 for 26 yards (27-T.Woolen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 47-yard field goal with 7:10 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:10Eddy Pineiro·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+33–0
1st6:49Shi Smith·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+710–0
Panthers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Panthers: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.01Seahawks: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Panthers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.41Seahawks: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 71 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 53 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Seahawks 4.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's play-action rate, 46.4%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks14.3%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 20.1 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 1.9 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
Q1 7:05 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 25 · gained nothing · -6.39 EP · −15.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2436%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0578%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.2127%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2640%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3350%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.8183%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Panthers3Seahawks0
Field goal16 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Seahawks 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Panthers9Seahawks0
Panthers10Seahawks0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Seahawks 23
2nd quarter48 plays
Panthers16Seahawks0
Panthers17Seahawks0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 1
Panthers17Seahawks6
Panthers17Seahawks7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Panthers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Seahawks 43
Panthers20Seahawks7
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 11
Panthers20Seahawks13
Panthers20Seahawks14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Panthers20Seahawks17
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 33
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Seahawks 3
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 43
Panthers26Seahawks17
Panthers27Seahawks17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Seahawks 8
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
Panthers30Seahawks17
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Seahawks 21
Panthers30Seahawks23
Panthers30Seahawks24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 24
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3.5
Closing total
44.5
Panthers moneyline
+178
Seahawks moneyline
-200
Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 54 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 45°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north; light drizzle.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Panthers 14 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Pete Carroll
3rd · 0:26
SEA +8% win prob
(:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 14 for 10 yards (24-C.Henderson).
2nd · 6:26CAR +7% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Henderson at CAR 41. 24-C.Henderson ran ob at SEA 39 for 20 yards (72-A.Lucas; 25-T.Homer).
