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2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Lumen Field

Carolina PanthersWinner

30

Seattle Seahawks

24

SEA -3.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓

Carolina Panthers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q1 7:05, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 7:05CAR 3 — SEA 0SEA ball · 1st & 10SEA 53%

(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:05CAR +13% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
  2. Q3 · 0:40CAR +11% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Tremble (6-Q.Diggs) [10-U.Nwosu].
  3. Q1 · 13:37SEA +9% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end to CAR 40 for 12 yards (39-T.Tabor).
  4. Q3 · 1:41SEA +9% win prob(1:41) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman right guard to SEA 3 for 2 yards (30-M.Jackson, 56-J.Brooks).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:10CAR Field goal

    (7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 6:49CAR Touchdown

    (6:49) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 12-S.Smith for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — SEA 0
  3. Q2 · 12:39CAR Touchdown

    (12:39) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — SEA 0
  4. Q2 · 9:33SEA Touchdown

    (9:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — SEA 7
  5. Q2 · 2:13CAR Field goal

    (2:13) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 20 — SEA 7
  6. Q2 · 0:20SEA Touchdown

    (:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 20 — SEA 14
  7. Q3 · 10:03SEA Field goal

    (10:03) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: CAR 20 — SEA 17
  8. Q4 · 7:02CAR Touchdown

    (7:02) (Shotgun) 20-R.Blackshear up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 27 — SEA 17
  9. Q4 · 2:00CAR Field goal

    (2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 30 — SEA 17
  10. Q4 · 0:27SEA Touchdown

    (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-M.Goodwin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-53-B.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 30 — SEA 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersSeahawks
Offensive plays7153
Total yards329 (edge)287
Yards per play4.65.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)-0.08
Success rate52% (edge)38%
Dropback rate39%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.41
Third downs6/136/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)15
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

21/36, 264 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

14/24, 120 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.7 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

14 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

D'Onta ForemanRB

21 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Marquise GoodwinWR

5/6 for 95 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

5/10 for 71 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 2814537:55Field goal +3
2SEASEA 25200:16Interception
3CARSEA 132130:05Touchdown +7
4SEASEA 25772:17Punt
5CARCAR 2613746:52Touchdown +7
6SEASEA 339673:09Touchdown +7
7CARCAR 255-71:29Punt
8SEASEA 42361:39Interception
9CARSEA 398144:09Field goal +3
10SEACAR 4611461:53Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 25200:16End of half
12SEASEA 4010515:00Field goal +3
13CARCAR 25581:47Punt
14SEASEA 20400:59Punt
15CARCAR 3114666:40Turnover on downs
16SEASEA 49333:11Punt
17CARCAR 2611745:26Touchdown +7
18SEASEA 25520:40Punt
19CARCAR 359344:21Field goal +3
20SEASEA 258751:40Touchdown +7
21CARSEA 41200:16End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold14/24120102-2.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard14745.315.6
D'Onta Foreman21743.501.9
Raheem Blackshear4328.013.5
Sam Darnold4307.501.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.177.000.3
D.J. Moore263.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Laviska Shenault Jr.4431020%3.1
Chuba Hubbard3325015%2.1
Terrace Marshall111805%1.7
Raheem Blackshear111705%1.6
Shi Smith2217110%1.9
Ian Thomas2211010%0.6
D'Onta Foreman11105%-0.5
D.J. Moore030015%-2.1
Stephen Sullivan01005%-1.6
Tommy Tremble020010%-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shaq Thompson630.500
Jaycee Horn410.012
Jeremy Chinn220.001
Frankie Luvu301.001
Yetur Gross-Matos120.000
T.J. Carrie210.000
Marquis Haynes201.000
Brian Burns020.500
C.J. Henderson110.012
Bravvion Roy110.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith21/36264323-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Homer9262.90-2.6
Geno Smith3206.700.7
Tony Jones122.00-0.7
Marquise Goodwin1-2-2.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marquise Goodwin5695117%7.9
DK Metcalf51071128%1.7
Tyler Lockett5960125%-2.3
Will Dissly232008%0.6
Colby Parkinson121006%-0.3
Travis Homer23808%-1.4
Tony Jones12006%-1.4
Noah Fant01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cody Barton480.000
Jordyn Brooks550.000
Ryan Neal450.001
Bruce Irvin331.000
Uchenna Nwosu310.000
Bryan Mone310.000
Myles Adams130.000
Quandre Diggs400.001
L.J. Collier120.000
Tariq Woolen210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Closing total
44.5
CAR moneyline
+178
SEA moneyline
-200

Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 54 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
CAR 14 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Pete Carroll