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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q1 7:05, 1st and 10, on Jaycee Horn — 12.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q1 7:05, Panthers +12.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:05 · 1st and 10
Jaycee Horn
Panthers
(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.08 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Eddy Pineiro's 47-yard field goal with 7:10 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Eddy Pineiro47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+33–010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categorySeahawks
Panthers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 71 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 53 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Seahawks 4.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CAR's play-action rate, 46.4%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-9.7 ptsright on their number · −1.3 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 71 snaps
Seahawks3.1 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Panthers37.5%inside their normal wobble · −12.2 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 56 early downs
Seahawks71.8%leaned — passed early · +11.9 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Panthers46.4%leaned — faked the run · +20.5 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks16.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Panthers66.7%leaned — went for it · +42.1 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 57%
Tendencies room →Panthers50.0%leaned — sent pressure · +20.1 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.94× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks21.4%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers9.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks14.3%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
CAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 20.1 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 1.9 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
21/36, 264 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
-0.5 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
14/24, 120 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-2.7 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
5/6 for 95 yds, 1 TD
17% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Marquise Goodwin banked 10.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/36, 264 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 20 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.3 | +10.8 | 76% | 79% | 17% | 21% | 1 car, -2 yd · 5/6, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 18.9 | +3.9 | 32% | 32% | 15% | 3% | 14 car, 74 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 25 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.1 | −1.0 | 91% | 95% | 28% | 41% | 5/10, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.0 | +1.9 | 93% | 98% | 25% | 25% | 5/9, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 11.9 | +7.9 | 19% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 17 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 120 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 30 yd |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +5.3 | 33% | 39% | 10% | 15% | 2/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 8.5 | −7.7 | 47% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 21 car, 74 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | +0.9 | 29% | 25% | 20% | 0% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/4, 31 yd |
| Travis HomerRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.4 | −4.3 | 91% | 90% | 8% | 3% | 9 car, 26 yd · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.2 | 39% | 33% | 8% | 11% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.1 | 64% | 61% | 10% | 0% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.8 | 85% | 86% | 5% | 21% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.2 | 31% | 31% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Tony JonesRB | 1.2 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D.J. MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −8.3 | 96% | 100% | 15% | 37% | 2 car, 6 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.9 | 40% | 43% | 10% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 25% | 29% | 5% | 28% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 56% | 52% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Horn at SEA 44. 8-J.Horn to SEA 13 for 31 yards (16-T.Lockett).
Q1 7:05 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 25 · gained nothing · -6.39 EP · −15.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers3
Seahawks0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers9Seahawks0Panthers10Seahawks0Panthers16Seahawks0Panthers17Seahawks0Panthers17Seahawks6Panthers17Seahawks7Panthers20Seahawks7Panthers20Seahawks13Panthers20Seahawks14Panthers20Seahawks17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers26Seahawks17Panthers27Seahawks17Panthers30Seahawks17Panthers30Seahawks23Panthers30Seahawks24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/24 | 120 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 1 | +5.6 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Raheem Blackshear |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 20% | +3.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeremy Chinn |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 21/36 | 264 | 3 | 2 | 3 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_CAR_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 54 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 32 |
| 8.0 |
| 1 |
| +3.5 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| D.J. Moore | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| 15% |
| +2.1 |
| Terrace Marshall | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Shi Smith | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +0.6 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15% | −2.1 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.6 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −4.5 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Carrie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bravvion Roy | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 5 | 6 | 95 | 1 | 17% | +7.9 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 10 | 71 | 1 | 28% | +1.7 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 | 25% | −2.3 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 4 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bruce Irvin | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Mone | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Adams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| L.J. Collier | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
