2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Paycor Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -4.5 ✓U 47 ✓Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Cincinnati Bengals 23–10. Biggest swing: Q2 12:54, CIN +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:54CLE 0 — CIN 0CIN ball · 4th & 15CIN 54%

(12:54) 4-D.Chrisman punts 47 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 17 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:54CIN +10% win prob(12:54) 4-D.Chrisman punts 47 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 17 - No Play.
Q2 · 9:46CIN +9% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:44CIN +9% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 11-T.Taylor to CLE 19 for 34 yards (22-G.Delpit).
Q1 · 9:55CLE +8% win prob(9:55) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 9:46CIN Touchdown
(9:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 7
Q2 · 3:03CLE Field goal
(3:03) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 3 — CIN 7
Q2 · 0:30CIN Touchdown
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 3 — CIN 13
Q3 · 7:33CIN Touchdown
(7:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 16-T.Irwin for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 3 — CIN 20
Q3 · 2:25CLE Touchdown
(2:25) (No Huddle) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — CIN 20
Q4 · 15:00CIN Field goal
(15:00) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CLE 10 — CIN 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	69	58
Total yards	344	366 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	43% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	68%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	-0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

26/42, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

18/33, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 96 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

14 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

10/15 for 119 yds, 1 TD

47% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

8/12 for 114 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	0:55	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 24	8	51	4:15	Turnover on downs
3	CIN	CIN 26	7	19	2:48	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 19	4	1	2:19	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 10	7	18	2:36	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 30	5	17	2:21	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 15	10	37	5:03	Touchdown +7
8	CLE	CLE 29	14	63	6:44	Field goal +3
9	CIN	CIN 25	11	75	2:35	Touchdown +6
10	CLE	CLE 25	5	30	0:24	End of half
11	CLE	CLE 19	5	8	1:35	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 15	7	35	3:23	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 17	4	4	1:52	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 44	3	56	0:44	Touchdown +7
15	CLE	CLE 29	12	81	5:09	Touchdown +7
16	CIN	CIN 25	7	63	2:20	Field goal +3
17	CLE	CLE 24	5	18	1:18	Interception
18	CIN	CIN 44	5	30	2:56	Interception
19	CLE	CLE 29	15	65	5:18	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 6	5	17	1:05	Punt
21	CLE	CIN 48	4	6	0:37	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 42	6	13	3:43	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 81 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	26/42	276	1	1	2	-5.1
Jacoby Brissett	0/1	0	0	0	0	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	14	34	2.4	-4.3
Deshaun Watson	6	33	5.5	7.0
Kareem Hunt	4	6	1.5	-1.8
David Njoku	1	-2	-2.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	8	12	114	0	31%	-6.5
David Njoku	7	9	59	1	23%	5.1
Amari Cooper	2	7	42	0	18%	-2.9
David Bell	3	3	27	0	8%	1.0
Nick Chubb	3	3	20	0	8%	0.9
Harrison Bryant	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Kareem Hunt	2	4	6	0	10%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
John Johnson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Deion Jones	4	3	0.0	1	2
Greg Newsome	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	3	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	2	2	2.0	0	2
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	0	2
Grant Delpit	3	0	0.0	0	0
Perrion Winfrey	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	1	1	0.0	0	1
A.J. Green	1	0	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	18/33	239	2	1	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	96	6.9	0	1.2
Samaje Perine	4	22	5.5	1	2.0
Joe Burrow	6	10	1.7	0	1.6
Ja'Marr Chase	1	6	6.0	0	0.0
Trayveon Williams	1	2	2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	10	15	119	1	47%	0.1
Trenton Irwin	2	2	58	1	6%	5.6
Trent Taylor	1	4	34	0	13%	1.3
Joe Mixon	2	2	10	0	6%	0.2
Mitchell Wilcox	1	2	10	0	6%	0.2
Trayveon Williams	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.7
Samaje Perine	1	5	2	0	16%	-5.1
Tyler Boyd	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	10	3	0.5	0	0
Vonn Bell	5	2	0.5	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	5	1	0.0	0	2
Sam Hubbard	4	1	1.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	1	0.0	0	1
Eli Apple	4	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	0	3	0.0	1	2
D.J. Reader	3	0	0.0	0	1
Trayveon Williams	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -4.5
Closing total: 47
CLE moneyline: +181
CIN moneyline: -204

Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CLE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.