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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q2 12:54, 4th and 15 — 10.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 23–10. Biggest swing: Q2 12:54, Bengals +10.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:54 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Bengals
(12:54) 4-D.Chrisman punts 47 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 17 - No Play.
10.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Browns at 4 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 15 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(12:54) 4-D.Chrisman punts 47 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 17 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ja'Marr Chase's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:46 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Ja'Marr Chase15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 69 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bengals’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Bengals 4.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 13 against 83.3% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.1 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.8% in week 13 against 62.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-3.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 69 snaps
Bengals6.1 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 87%
Tendencies room →Browns62.5%leaned — passed early · +12.3 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 48 early downs
Bengals59.1%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Browns21.3%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bengals13.5%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Browns83.3%leaned — went for it · +26.0 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −23.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±17.5 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 54%
Tendencies room →Browns16.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bengals14.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Browns10.8%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bengals17.0%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 23.3 points below their season mean of 23.3% and 1.3 times their own 17.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
26/42, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
18/33, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.5 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected
Receiving · CIN
10/15 for 119 yds, 1 TD
47% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added
Receiving · CLE
8/12 for 114 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · -6.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Trenton Irwin banked 9.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.5 | +2.3 | 94% | 95% | 47% | 53% | 1 car, 6 yd · 10/15, 119 yd, 1 TD |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.4 | −3.0 | 100% | 94% | 31% | 50% | 8/12, 114 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 18.7 | +4.4 | 96% | 92% | 23% | 9% | 1 car, -2 yd · 7/9, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 16.6 | +1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/33, 239 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 10 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | −5.3 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 26/42, 276 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 33 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.8 | +9.0 | 84% | 89% | 6% | 20% | 2/2, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe MixonRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +3.1 | 58% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 14 car, 96 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 9.4 | −1.3 | 43% | 46% | 16% | 0% | 4 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 1/5, 2 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −2.9 | 63% | 48% | 8% | 1% | 14 car, 34 yd · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −5.7 | 86% | 85% | 18% | 18% | 2/7, 42 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +1.9 | 68% | 75% | 8% | 3% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.1 | 78% | 86% | 13% | 17% | 1/4, 34 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Receiving Back | 3.2 | −5.3 | 39% | 42% | 10% | 0% | 4 car, 6 yd · 2/4, 6 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.5 | 79% | 68% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 1.8 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 11% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stanley MorganWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jacoby BrissettQB | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 0.0 | — | 13% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:54) 4-D.Chrisman punts 47 yards to CLE 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 17 - No Play.
Q2 12:54 · Bengals · 4th & 15 at CIN 17 · gained nothing · +3.90 EP · +11.0% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 85 yards from the CIN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Browns0
Bengals6Browns0Bengals7Browns3Bengals7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns3Bengals13Browns3Bengals19Browns3Bengals20Browns9Bengals20Browns10Bengals20Browns10Bengals23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 26/42 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −5.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 | +7.0 |
| Kareem Hunt |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 8 | 12 | 114 | 0 | 31% | −6.5 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 9 | 59 | 1 | 23% | +5.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Johnson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Greg Newsome | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 18/33 | 239 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_CLE_CIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 47; the game landed 33 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| David Njoku | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 18% | −2.9 |
| David Bell | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −2.0 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Denzel Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Perrion Winfrey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 96 |
| 6.9 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 15 | 119 | 1 | 47% | +0.1 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 2 | 58 | 1 | 6% | +5.6 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 13% | +1.3 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16% | −5.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 10 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hubbard | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eli Apple | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| D.J. Reader | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
