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Dallas Cowboys 27, Texans 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:45, 2nd and 20, on Tremon Smith — 17.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:45 · 2nd and 20
Tremon Smith
Texans
(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).
Dome
Cowboys closed -17, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 5:45, Texans +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ezekiel ElliottTexansQ3 8:23(8:23) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 2 for -1 yards (25-D.King, 48-C.Harris).
15.9pts
Jeff DriskelCowboysQ4 3:25(3:25) 6-J.Driskel right end to DAL 2 for 1 yard (96-N.Gallimore; 42-A.Barr).
16.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 24.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Texans171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).
Swing −17.6 for CowboysExpected points −4.58 for CowboysThe model had Texans 9 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:45HOU +18% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).
4th · 3:25HOU +16% win prob(3:25) 6-J.Driskel right end to DAL 2 for 1 yard (96-N.Gallimore; 42-A.Barr).
3rd · 8:23HOU +16% win prob(8:23) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 2 for -1 yards (25-D.King, 48-C.Harris).
2nd · 2:30DAL +15% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass deep right to 19-A.Rodgers for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:56DAL +15% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to HOU 26 for 51 yards (5-J.Pitre). Penalty on HOU-2-T.Thomas, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 6:30HOU +15% win prob(6:30) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 7 for -6 yards (45-O.Okoronkwo). FUMBLES (45-O.Okoronkwo) [45-O.Okoronkwo], touched at DAL 6, recovered by DAL-75-J.Ball at DAL 3.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ezekiel Elliott's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:46 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
1st0:22Ka'imi Fairbairn·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+310–7
2nd12:34Tony Pollard·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+710–14
2nd2:30Amari Rodgers·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+717–14
2nd0:44Brett Maher·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.Overton+317–17
2nd0:02Ka'imi Fairbairn·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+320–17
3rd3:07Ka'imi Fairbairn·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+323–17
4th14:54Brett Maher·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.Overton+323–20
4th0:46Ezekiel Elliott·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+723–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryCowboys
Texans1–7Cowboys
327Total yards405
5.2Yards per play5.8
40%Success rate47%
47%Third-down rate53%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays8
16First downs21
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Texans: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.02Cowboys: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Texans: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.56Texans: −0.56 expected points added per play
+0.08Cowboys: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 13.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected, −18.6 pts, sat 16.2 points below their season number of −2.4 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 13.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.2% in week 13 against 62.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cowboys3.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.6 pts, 16.2 points below their season mean of -2.4 pts and 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Elliott up+22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:46) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:46 · Cowboys · 3rd & goal at HOU 2 · gained 2 · +2.79 EP · +22.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 98 yards from the DAL 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1069%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1063%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.5226%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2029%
Texans1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Texans0Cowboys6
Texans0Cowboys7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Texans 11
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Texans6Cowboys7
Texans7Cowboys7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 31
Texans10Cowboys7
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Cowboys 22
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
Texans10Cowboys13
Texans10Cowboys14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Texans 5
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cowboys 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 46
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 23
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Cowboys 38
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Texans16Cowboys14
Texans17Cowboys14
Touchdown4 plays
Texans17Cowboys17
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Texans 15
Texans20Cowboys17
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cowboys 32
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 37
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 1
Texans23Cowboys17
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Cowboys 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Texans 33
4th quarter53 plays
Texans23Cowboys20
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 18
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cowboys 40
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the ball was not catchable.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsIn the boxEleven defenders
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 4 to the Cowboys 1
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans23Cowboys26
Texans23Cowboys27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Texans 2
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -17
Closing total
44.5
Texans moneyline
+918
Cowboys moneyline
-1365
Cowboys closed -17, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 50 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Texans 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Lovie Smith vs Mike McCarthy
3rd · 13:19HOU +15% win prob(13:19) 31-D.Pierce left tackle to HOU 36 for -1 yards (6-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (6-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by DAL-7-T.Diggs at HOU 45. 7-T.Diggs ran ob at HOU 28 for 17 yards (60-A.Cann).
4th · 0:46DAL +14% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
