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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q4 5:45, 2nd and 20, on Tremon Smith — 17.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 5:45, Texans +17.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:45 · 2nd and 20
Tremon Smith
Texans
(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 24.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ezekiel Elliott's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 0:46 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Cowboys 5.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
DAL's sack or hit rate, 3.6%, is past their previous low of 8.7% in week 10 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
HOU's pass rate over expected, −18.6 pts, sat 16.2 points below their season number of −2.4 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.2% in week 13 against 62.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-18.6 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −16.2 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−2.21× that swing) · 63 snaps
Cowboys-6.2 ptsright on their number · +0.0 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 87%
Tendencies room →Texans43.5%leaned — ran early · −14.8 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 46 early downs
Cowboys62.3%leaned — passed early · +13.1 vs their 49.2%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 54%
Tendencies room →Texans28.6%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Cowboys23.8%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Texans50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.7 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys40.0%right on their number · +10.7 vs their 29.3%, and they swing ±27.5 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 51%
Tendencies room →Texans0.0%leaned — sat back · −18.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cowboys28.6%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Texans11.9%right on their number · −2.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cowboys3.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
HOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -18.6 pts, 16.2 points below their season mean of -2.4 pts and 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
24/39, 284 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
16/21, 175 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
6.3 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DAL
6/10 for 87 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tony Pollard banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +4.1 | 80% | 90% | 46% | 57% | 10/11, 124 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 22.2 | +8.0 | 58% | 64% | 13% | 1% | 10 car, 42 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 17.1 | −9.6 | 49% | 38% | 13% | 0% | 15 car, 62 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 19 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Featured Receiver | 16.0 | +7.3 | 55% | 66% | 21% | 29% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/5, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.7 | −3.6 | 93% | 98% | 26% | 32% | 6/10, 87 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 284 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 23 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +2.1 | 70% | 86% | 15% | 33% | 4/6, 85 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | −2.8 | 55% | 24% | 0% | — | 22 car, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeff DriskelQB · Starter QB | 9.1 | −0.9 | 50% | — | 0% | — | 4/6, 38 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 36 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.3 | −0.8 | 96% | 100% | 15% | 8% | 5/6, 33 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −6.5 | 76% | 81% | 15% | 24% | 2/6, 40 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 5.2 | −0.7 | 50% | — | 0% | — | 16/21, 175 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.3 | 82% | 90% | 13% | 7% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2.1 | −1.7 | 27% | 52% | 8% | 0% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.5 | 53% | 72% | 8% | 7% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB | 1.2 | −5.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 0.1 | −1.2 | 12% | 14% | 0% | — | 3 car, 1 yd |
| James WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 15% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:46) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:46 · Cowboys · 3rd & goal at HOU 2 · gained 2 · +2.79 EP · +22.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 98 yards from the DAL 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans0
Cowboys6Texans0Cowboys7Texans6Cowboys7Texans7Cowboys7Texans10Cowboys7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Texans10Cowboys13Texans10Cowboys14How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Texans16Cowboys14Texans17Cowboys14Texans17Cowboys17Texans20Cowboys17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Texans23Cowboys17Texans23Cowboys20How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Texans23Cowboys26Texans23Cowboys27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 16/21 | 175 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6.3 |
| Jeff Driskel | 4/6 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 | −10.7 |
| Jeff Driskel | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 10 | 11 | 124 | 0 | 46% | +2.9 |
| Amari Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Kirksey | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond King |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 284 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_HOU_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -17, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 50 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Eno Benjamin | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| +6.1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −0.0 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Harris | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Stallworth | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 26% | −0.3 |
| Noah Brown | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 15% | +0.8 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 15% | −1.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +0.9 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 13% | −0.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −1.1 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leighton Vander Esch | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelvin Joseph | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
