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2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · AT&T Stadium

Houston Texans

23

Dallas CowboysWinner

27

DAL -17 no coverO 44.5 ✓Dome

Dallas Cowboys 27–23. Biggest swing: Q4 5:45, HOU +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 5:45HOU 23 — DAL 20DAL ball · 2nd & 20HOU 63%

(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:45HOU +18% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 1-T.Smith (45-O.Okoronkwo) at DAL 11. 1-T.Smith to DAL 4 for 7 yards (86-D.Schultz).
  2. Q4 · 3:25HOU +16% win prob(3:25) 6-J.Driskel right end to DAL 2 for 1 yard (96-N.Gallimore; 42-A.Barr).
  3. Q3 · 8:23HOU +16% win prob(8:23) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 2 for -1 yards (25-D.King, 48-C.Harris).
  4. Q2 · 2:30DAL +15% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass deep right to 19-A.Rodgers for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:25DAL Touchdown

    (11:25) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — DAL 7
  2. Q1 · 5:36HOU Touchdown

    (5:36) 31-D.Pierce right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — DAL 7
  3. Q1 · 0:22HOU Field goal

    (:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — DAL 7
  4. Q2 · 12:34DAL Touchdown

    (12:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 20-T.Pollard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — DAL 14
  5. Q2 · 2:30HOU Touchdown

    (2:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass deep right to 19-A.Rodgers for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — DAL 14
  6. Q2 · 0:44DAL Field goal

    (:44) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — DAL 17
  7. Q2 · 0:02HOU Field goal

    (:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — DAL 17
  8. Q3 · 3:07HOU Field goal

    (3:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — DAL 17
  9. Q4 · 14:54DAL Field goal

    (14:54) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — DAL 20
  10. Q4 · 0:46DAL Touchdown

    (:46) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 23 — DAL 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansCowboys
Offensive plays6370
Total yards327405 (edge)
Yards per play5.25.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.19-0.02 (edge)
Success rate40%47% (edge)
Dropback rate44%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.28 (edge)-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.560.08 (edge)
Third downs7/158/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)58 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1621 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers22

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

24/39, 284 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -8.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

16/21, 175 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

6.3 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

22 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

-10.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

15 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Chris MooreWR

10/11 for 124 yds, 0 TD

46% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Dalton SchultzTE

6/10 for 87 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 2411763:40Touchdown +7
2HOUHOU 25532:19Punt
3HOUDAL 247243:28Touchdown +7
4DALDAL 25562:06Punt
5HOUHOU 286473:09Field goal +3
6DALDAL 259802:50Touchdown +7
7HOUHOU 2511356:15Turnover on downs
8DALDAL 40461:37Punt
9HOUHOU 21420:54Punt
10DALDAL 36220:30Interception
11HOUDAL 273320:49Touchdown +7
12DALDAL 2512601:43Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 256380:40Field goal +3
14HOUHOU 255122:01Fumble
15DALHOU 289264:40Turnover on downs
16HOUHOU 210635:16Field goal +3
17DALDAL 2510403:13Field goal +3
18HOUHOU 25531:26Punt
19DALDAL 12461:21Punt
20HOUHOU 258354:02Punt
21DALDAL 1552:24Interception
22HOUDAL 4422:17Turnover on downs
23DALDAL 212982:39Touchdown +7
24HOUHOU 255310:38Interception
25DALDAL 20100:03End of game

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 98 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills16/211750106.3
Jeff Driskel4/6381001.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce22783.51-10.7
Jeff Driskel7365.10-0.9
Amari Rodgers133.00-0.3
Davis Mills122.00-0.5
Eno Benjamin310.30-1.7
Rex Burkhead2-3-1.50-3.4
Dare Ogunbowale1-3-3.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Moore1011124046%2.9
Amari Rodgers4557121%6.1
Phillip Dorsett2318013%0.2
Jordan Akins12508%-0.8
Rex Burkhead11504%-0.0
Dare Ogunbowale22408%-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre830.002
Christian Kirksey550.001
Desmond King240.000
Tavierre Thomas240.000
Jonathan Owens230.002
Christian Harris230.001
Taylor Stallworth220.000
Roy Lopez130.000
Maliek Collins400.000
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo211.001

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott24/39284121-3.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ezekiel Elliott15624.11-2.0
Tony Pollard10424.211.4
Dak Prescott6233.802.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dalton Schultz61087026%-0.3
Noah Brown4685015%0.8
Michael Gallup2640015%-1.6
CeeDee Lamb5633015%0.9
Tony Pollard4520113%-0.5
Ezekiel Elliott3519013%-1.1
James Washington01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Leighton Vander Esch750.000
Daron Bland330.000
Damone Clark330.000
Trevon Diggs500.000
Donovan Wilson310.000
Micah Parsons130.000
Kelvin Joseph400.001
Osa Odighizuwa310.000
Demarcus Lawrence220.000
Jayron Kearse120.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -17
Closing total
44.5
HOU moneyline
+918
DAL moneyline
-1365

Cowboys closed -17, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 50 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
HOU 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches
Lovie Smith vs Mike McCarthy