2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Denver Broncos

KC -8.5 no coverO 44.5 ✓Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 6:00, KC +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:00KC 34 — DEN 28KC ball · 3rd & 4KC 95%

(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:00KC +12% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
Q4 · 4:34KC +8% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass deep right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones] at KC 24. 38-L.Sneed to KC 30 for 6 yards (76-C.Anderson). PENALTY on KC-55-F.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.
Q4 · 10:54DEN +8% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:16DEN +6% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 37-M.Mack for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:00KC Field goal
(11:00) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 3 — DEN 0
Q1 · 2:57KC Field goal
(2:57) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 6 — DEN 0
Q2 · 14:28KC Touchdown
(14:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — DEN 0
Q2 · 7:23KC Touchdown
(7:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 20 — DEN 0
Q2 · 4:43KC Touchdown
(4:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 89-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at DEN 47. 50-W.Gay for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-B.Johnson was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 0
Q2 · 1:38DEN Touchdown
(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 7
Q2 · 0:14DEN Touchdown
(:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 14
Q3 · 13:16DEN Touchdown
(13:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 37-M.Mack for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 21
Q3 · 0:45KC Touchdown
(:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-B.Browning]. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 34 — DEN 21
Q4 · 10:54DEN Touchdown
(10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 34 — DEN 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	64	69
Total yards	434 (edge)	320
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	48% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	69%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	6/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

28/42, 352 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

5.8 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

23/36, 247 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

13 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

8 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

7/9 for 112 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · KC

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

9/11 for 74 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	9	63	4:04	Field goal +3
2	DEN	DEN 25	14	32	5:45	Punt
3	KC	KC 20	6	53	2:18	Field goal +3
4	DEN	DEN 25	5	5	1:56	Punt
5	KC	KC 22	5	78	1:41	Touchdown +7
6	DEN	DEN 29	5	-3	2:07	Punt
7	KC	KC 24	13	76	4:53	Touchdown +7
8	DEN	DEN 25	7	30	2:44	Defensive touchdown
9	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	0:57	Punt
10	KC	KC 31	2	3	0:42	Interception
11	DEN	KC 42	5	42	1:18	Touchdown +7
12	KC	KC 25	6	23	0:29	Interception
13	DEN	DEN 40	8	60	0:57	Touchdown +7
14	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:09	End of half
15	DEN	DEN 25	7	80	1:57	Touchdown +7
16	KC	KC 25	5	-1	1:57	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 20	4	9	2:05	Punt
18	KC	KC 23	4	9	1:25	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 27	6	-8	2:30	Punt
20	KC	KC 28	10	69	4:28	Touchdown +7
21	DEN	DEN 25	14	60	4:49	Touchdown +7
22	KC	KC 25	5	9	2:16	Punt
23	DEN	DEN 5	4	5	1:14	Punt
24	KC	DEN 41	3	6	1:30	Interception
25	DEN	DEN 46	3	7	1:28	Interception
26	KC	KC 15	10	46	4:21	End of game

9 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	28/42	352	3	3	2	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	13	70	5.4	2.3
Jerick McKinnon	6	22	3.7	-0.1
Michael Burton	1	0	0.0	-1.5
Patrick Mahomes	3	-3	-1.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	7	9	112	2	21%	10.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster	9	11	74	1	26%	-0.2
Travis Kelce	4	9	71	0	21%	-0.6
Noah Gray	3	3	45	0	7%	2.9
Isiah Pacheco	3	3	23	0	7%	0.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	3	20	0	7%	-1.2
Skyy Moore	1	2	7	0	5%	-2.4
Justin Watson	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	4	4	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	3	4	0.0	1	2
Juan Thornhill	5	2	1.0	0	1
Willie Gay	5	0	0.0	1	1
Joshua Williams	1	3	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	3	1	0.0	0	0
Darius Harris	0	3	0.5	0	0
Michael Danna	1	2	1.0	0	0
George Karlaftis	1	2	1.0	0	1
Jaylen Watson	1	2	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	23/36	247	3	1	6	-7.0
Brett Rypien	4/8	16	1	1	0	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Russell Wilson	4	57	14.3	5.1
Latavius Murray	8	32	4.0	0.2
Marlon Mack	3	15	5.0	-0.3
Mike Boone	3	2	0.7	-1.9
Brett Rypien	1	0	0.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	8	9	73	3	21%	10.0
Marlon Mack	2	3	62	1	7%	3.9
Greg Dulcich	3	8	42	0	19%	-1.7
Kendall Hinton	5	6	38	0	14%	3.9
Mike Boone	2	2	27	0	5%	1.3
Eric Tomlinson	2	3	11	0	7%	-0.2
Jalen Virgil	1	1	9	0	2%	0.9
Eric Saubert	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.1
Brandon Johnson	0	4	0	0	9%	-11.3
Latavius Murray	3	5	-1	0	12%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kareem Jackson	7	3	0.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	8	2	0.0	2	2
Alex Singleton	3	4	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	1	4	1.0	0	0
Damarri Mathis	5	0	0.0	0	1
Justin Simmons	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Harris	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Purcell	1	3	0.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	1	2	0.0	0	1
Patrick Surtain	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -8.5
Closing total: 44.5
KC moneyline: -394
DEN moneyline: +329

Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 62 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: KC 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Nathaniel Hackett

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.