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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q4 6:00, 3rd and 4, on Josey Jewell — 11.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 6:00, Broncos +11.9% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:00 · 3rd and 4
Josey Jewell
Broncos
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 6 of 17 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Harrison Butker's 35-yard field goal with 11:00 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Harrison Butker35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+33–010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Broncos’s 69 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Broncos 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's early-down pass rate, 76.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 12 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.3 pts in week 13 against +4.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.1 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.7 pts in week 13 against +14.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.8% in week 13 against 18.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs14.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 64 snaps
Broncos4.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.1 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 86%
Tendencies room →Chiefs63.5%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 52 early downs
Broncos76.0%off script — passed early · +19.9 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+2.16× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 46%
Tendencies room →Chiefs6.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.9 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos22.6%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs0.0%inside their normal wobble · −19.2 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±30.1 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos33.3%right on their number · +7.2 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 59%
Tendencies room →Chiefs28.3%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Broncos36.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 33%
Tendencies room →Chiefs18.9%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Broncos11.4%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
DEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.0%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 56.1% and 2.2 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
28/42, 352 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT
5.8 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
23/36, 247 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
-7.0 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
7/9 for 112 yds, 2 TD
21% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added
Receiving · KC
9/11 for 74 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerry Jeudy banked 16.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 33.3 | +16.6 | 83% | 83% | 21% | 30% | 8/9, 73 yd, 3 TD |
| Jerick McKinnonRB · Committee Back | 32.4 | +14.2 | 57% | 64% | 21% | 2% | 6 car, 22 yd · 7/9, 112 yd, 2 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 25.6 | +10.8 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 247 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 57 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +1.6 | 81% | 86% | 26% | 21% | 9/11, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | −1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/42, 352 yd, 3 TD, 3 INT · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 15.7 | +9.9 | 32% | 32% | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 15 yd · 2/3, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 12.3 | +0.6 | 43% | 36% | 7% | 0% | 13 car, 70 yd · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −8.2 | 81% | 82% | 21% | 34% | 4/9, 71 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +0.5 | 86% | 87% | 14% | 9% | 5/6, 38 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +2.9 | 57% | 55% | 7% | 5% | 3/3, 45 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −6.4 | 75% | 77% | 19% | 38% | 3/8, 42 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Committee Back | 6.1 | −4.9 | 53% | 53% | 12% | 0% | 8 car, 32 yd · 3/5, -1 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 4.9 | +0.9 | 15% | 15% | 5% | 6% | 3 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 27 yd |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.5 | 32% | 28% | 7% | 3% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.9 | 51% | 75% | 7% | 11% | 1/3, 20 yd |
| Brett RypienQB | 2.6 | −3.6 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 4/8, 16 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 13% | 15% | 2% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.7 | 40% | 25% | 5% | 6% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.8 | 26% | 26% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.6 | 74% | 72% | 9% | 22% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.7 | 65% | 70% | 5% | 23% | 0/2, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
Q4 6:00 · Chiefs · 3rd & 4 at DEN 35 · gained nothing · -4.95 EP · −15.3% win probability
176 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 188 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 78 yards from the KC 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs3
Broncos0Chiefs6Broncos0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Chiefs12Broncos0Chiefs13Broncos0Chiefs19Broncos0Chiefs20Broncos0Chiefs26Broncos0Chiefs27Broncos0Chiefs27Broncos6Chiefs27Broncos7Chiefs27Broncos13Chiefs27Broncos14How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Chiefs27Broncos20Chiefs27Broncos21Chiefs33Broncos21Chiefs34Broncos21Chiefs34Broncos27Chiefs34Broncos28How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/42 | 352 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Michael Burton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 9 | 112 | 2 | 21% | +10.8 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Juan Thornhill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 247 | 3 | 1 | 6 | −7.0 |
| Brett Rypien | 4/8 | 16 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_KC_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 62 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| 26% |
| −0.2 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 21% | −0.6 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7% | +0.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −2.4 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.1 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Willie Gay | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joshua Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Harris | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Watson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 | +5.1 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Brett Rypien | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 8 | 9 | 73 | 3 | 21% | +10.0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 | 7% | +3.9 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 19% | −1.7 |
| Kendall Hinton | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14% | +3.9 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Jalen Virgil | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −1.1 |
| Brandon Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −11.3 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 12% | −3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Jackson | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Alex Singleton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Surtain | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
