For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChiefsKansas City34
BY 6final margin
BroncosDenver28
Kansas City Chiefs 34 at Denver Broncos 28. Final.
Chiefs -8.5 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs 34, Broncos 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:00, 3rd and 4, on Josey Jewell — 11.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:00 · 3rd and 4
Josey Jewell
Broncos
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 6:00, Broncos +11.9% win probability on one snap.
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jerry JeudyBroncosQ4 10:54(10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.8pts
L'Jarius SneedChiefsQ4 4:34(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass deep right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones] at KC 24. 38-L.Sneed to KC 30 for 6 yards (76-C.Anderson). PENALTY on KC-55-F.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.
8.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 6 of 17 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chiefs178 of 188 plays carry both curves
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
Swing +11.9 for BroncosExpected points +4.95 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 5 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:00KC +12% win prob(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
4th · 4:34KC +8% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass deep right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones] at KC 24. 38-L.Sneed to KC 30 for 6 yards (76-C.Anderson). PENALTY on KC-55-F.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.
4th · 10:54DEN +8% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:16DEN +6% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 37-M.Mack for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:19DEN +5% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling ran ob at KC 45 for 20 yards (31-J.Simmons) [56-B.Browning].
1st · 9:19DEN +5% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 9-K.Hinton to DEN 47 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 35-yard field goal with 11:00 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:00Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+33–0
1st2:57Harrison Butker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+36–0
2nd14:28Jerick McKinnon·56-yd TD catch56-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+713–0
2nd7:23Jerick McKinnon·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+720–0
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Chiefs: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.12Broncos: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Broncos’s 69 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Broncos 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
DEN's early-down pass rate, 76.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 12 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 13.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.3 pts in week 13 against +4.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.1 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.7 pts in week 13 against +14.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.8% in week 13 against 18.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Broncos11.4%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 76.0%, 19.9 points above their season mean of 56.1% and 2.2 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
77Andrew WylieG · Every snap100%68 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%68 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%68 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%68 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time81%55 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time81%55 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
Q4 6:00 · Chiefs · 3rd & 4 at DEN 35 · gained nothing · -4.95 EP · −15.3% win probability
176 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 78 yards from the KC 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1072%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1675%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1268%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0877%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0760%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0940%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Chiefs3Broncos0
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 17
Punt14 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 42
Chiefs6Broncos0
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Broncos 27
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 36
2nd quarter61 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Chiefs12Broncos0
Chiefs13Broncos0
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 34
Chiefs19Broncos0
Chiefs20Broncos0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Broncos 10
Chiefs26Broncos0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 45
Chiefs27Broncos0
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Intercepted2 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Chiefs 34
Chiefs27Broncos6
Chiefs27Broncos7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 18
Intercepted8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 48
Chiefs27Broncos13
Chiefs27Broncos14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chiefs27Broncos20
Chiefs27Broncos21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 38
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 31
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 29
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 32
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 39
Chiefs33Broncos21
Chiefs34Broncos21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Broncos 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
4th quarter46 plays
Chiefs34Broncos27
Chiefs34Broncos28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Chiefs 2
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Broncos 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Broncos 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Chiefs 47
The period ended15 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Broncos 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -8.5
Closing total
44.5
Chiefs moneyline
-394
Broncos moneyline
+329
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 62 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Nathaniel Hackett
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:28DEN +4% win prob(14:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:19DEN +4% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 10-J.Jeudy. PENALTY on KC-21-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, 40 yards, enforced at DEN 45 - No Play.
