For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
34
28
Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 6:00, KC +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Jewell at DEN 25. 47-J.Jewell to DEN 46 for 21 yards (65-T.Smith).
How the points landed
(11:00) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 3 — DEN 0(2:57) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 6 — DEN 0(14:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — DEN 0(7:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 20 — DEN 0(4:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 89-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at DEN 47. 50-W.Gay for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-B.Johnson was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 0(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 7(:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 14(13:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 37-M.Mack for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 27 — DEN 21(:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-B.Browning]. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 34 — DEN 21(10:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 34 — DEN 28Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chiefs | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 64 | 69 |
| Total yards | 434 (edge) | 320 |
| Yards per play | 6.8 (edge) | 4.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.10 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 32% |
| Dropback rate | 69% | 77% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.13 (edge) | -0.09 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.04 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Third downs | 6/12 (edge) | 6/17 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 6 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 (edge) |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
28/42, 352 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT
5.8 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
23/36, 247 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
-7.0 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
7/9 for 112 yds, 2 TD
21% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added
Receiving · KC
9/11 for 74 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | KC 25 | 9 | 63 | 4:04 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 25 | 14 | 32 | 5:45 | Punt | |
| 3 | KC | KC 20 | 6 | 53 | 2:18 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 5 | 1:56 | Punt | |
| 5 | KC | KC 22 | 5 | 78 | 1:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 29 | 5 | -3 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 7 | KC | KC 24 | 13 | 76 | 4:53 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 30 | 2:44 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 1 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 10 | KC | KC 31 | 2 | 3 | 0:42 | Interception | |
| 11 | DEN | KC 42 | 5 | 42 | 1:18 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 23 | 0:29 | Interception | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 40 | 8 | 60 | 0:57 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | KC | KC 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:09 | End of half | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 80 | 1:57 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | -1 | 1:57 | Punt | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 20 | 4 | 9 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 18 | KC | KC 23 | 4 | 9 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 27 | 6 | -8 | 2:30 | Punt | |
| 20 | KC | KC 28 | 10 | 69 | 4:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 25 | 14 | 60 | 4:49 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 22 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 9 | 2:16 | Punt | |
| 23 | DEN | DEN 5 | 4 | 5 | 1:14 | Punt | |
| 24 | KC | DEN 41 | 3 | 6 | 1:30 | Interception | |
| 25 | DEN | DEN 46 | 3 | 7 | 1:28 | Interception | |
| 26 | KC | KC 15 | 10 | 46 | 4:21 | End of game |
9 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/42 | 352 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 9 | 112 | 2 | 21% | 10.8 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 11 | 74 | 1 | 26% | -0.2 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Juan Thornhill | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Willie Gay |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 247 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7.0 |
| Brett Rypien | 4/8 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 62 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -0.6 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 7% | 2.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7% | 0.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 7% | -1.2 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | -2.4 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.1 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Joshua Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Harris | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Watson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 | 5.1 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Mike Boone | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | -1.9 |
| Brett Rypien | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 8 | 9 | 73 | 3 | 21% | 10.0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 | 7% | 3.9 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 19% | -1.7 |
| Kendall Hinton | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14% | 3.9 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | 1.3 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | -0.2 |
| Jalen Virgil | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | 0.9 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5% | -1.1 |
| Brandon Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -11.3 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 12% | -3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Jackson | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Alex Singleton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Surtain | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
