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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 8, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q4 0:15, 2nd and 10, on Van Jefferson — 50.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Rams +50.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 2nd and 10
Van Jefferson
Rams
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
50.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Van Jefferson's 23-yard touchdown catch with 0:15 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Van Jefferson23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+716–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryRams
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 58 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Rams’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Rams 2.
Raiders outgained Rams 302-283 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's pass rate over expected, −20.8 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −2.6σ from their own normal
LV's early-down pass rate, 34.1%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
LV's play-action rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
LA's blitz rate sent, 4.3%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-20.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −17.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−2.55× that swing) · 58 snaps
Rams-3.3 ptsright on their number · +0.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 83%
Tendencies room →Raiders34.1%off script — ran early · −22.3 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−2.17× that swing) · 44 early downs
Rams64.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 60%
Tendencies room →Raiders4.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.4 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Rams32.5%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Raiders16.7%inside their normal wobble · −22.7 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±29.1 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Rams—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 58%
Tendencies room →Raiders10.0%leaned — sat back · −14.0 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Rams4.3%off script — sat back · −24.0 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−2.14× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Raiders12.5%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Rams13.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
LV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.8 pts, 17.3 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 2.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
22/35, 230 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.9 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected
Passing · LV
11/20, 137 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-0.8 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ameer Abdullah banked 0.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.4 | −4.6 | 83% | 70% | 11% | 0% | 27 car, 99 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.1 | −1.8 | 97% | 100% | 37% | 71% | 3/7, 71 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | −1.4 | 97% | 100% | 21% | 18% | 3 car, 40 yd · 2/4, 22 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Receiving Back | 3.7 | +0.5 | 13% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 2.6 | −9.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/20, 137 yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 11 yd |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.4 | 48% | 70% | 5% | 6% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 1.1 | −0.3 | 38% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.9 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −2.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 100% | 100% | 5% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:15 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at LV 23 · gained 23 · +4.26 EP · +48.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 98 yards from the LA 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Raiders6
Rams0Raiders7Rams0Raiders10Rams0Raiders10Rams3Raiders13Rams3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Raiders16Rams3Raiders16Rams9Raiders16Rams10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders16Rams16Raiders16Rams17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 11/20 | 137 | 0 | 2 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 99 | 3.7 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Derek Carr |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 71 | 0 | 37% | +2.0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Hobbs | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Perryman | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Webb |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/35 | 230 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_LV_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 33 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 11 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| D.J. Turner | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| −2.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| D.J. Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Hall | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler Jones | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 1 | −5.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Skowronek | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 | 24% | +5.5 |
| Tutu Atwell | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 26% | −2.6 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 12% | +4.0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | −2.3 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marquise Copeland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonah Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
