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Las Vegas Raiders 16 at Los Angeles Rams 17. Final.
Raiders -6.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 14
Los Angeles Rams 17, Raiders 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:15, 2nd and 10, on Van Jefferson — 50.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 2nd and 10
Van Jefferson
Rams
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Raiders closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Rams +50.1% win probability on one snap.
50.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsRaidersQ1 13:42(13:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to LA 38 for 32 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
8.3pts
Taylor RappRamsQ4 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp [97-M.Hoecht] at LV 49. 24-T.Rapp to LV 49 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
18.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Raiders152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +50.1 for RamsExpected points +4.26 for RamsThe model had Rams 10 points higher than the market did.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15LA +50% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:10LV +18% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp [97-M.Hoecht] at LV 49. 24-T.Rapp to LV 49 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
1st · 13:42LA +8% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to LA 38 for 32 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 1:20LA +8% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 18-B.Skowronek to LV 40 for 32 yards (39-N.Hobbs).
2nd · 0:56LV +6% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 53-E.Jones [91-G.Gaines] at LA -5. Touchback.
2nd · 4:56LV +6% win prob(4:56) 3-C.Akers left guard to LV 20 for 3 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones), RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at LV 17.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Van Jefferson's 23-yard touchdown catch with 0:15 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Raiders: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.12Rams: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Raiders: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.05Rams: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Raiders: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.45Rams: −0.45 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 58 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Rams’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Rams 2.
NoteRaiders outgained Rams 302-283 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LV's pass rate over expected, −20.8 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −10.9 pts in week 12.
2.6 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 13.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's early-down pass rate, 34.1%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 44.9% in week 13.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's play-action rate, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 9.1% in week 1.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
LA's blitz rate sent, 4.3%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Rams13.0%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NoteLV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -20.8 pts, 17.3 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 2.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+48% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:15 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at LV 23 · gained 23 · +4.26 EP · +48.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 98 yards from the LA 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
41%
Yards
584
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1264%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0448%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.1519%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Raiders6Rams0
Raiders7Rams0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Rams 1
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Rams 41
Raiders10Rams0
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Rams 34
Raiders10Rams3
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Raiders 37
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter37 plays
Raiders13Rams3
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Rams 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Raiders 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Rams 10
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 29
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Rams 49
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 30
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 25
No good8 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Raiders 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Rams 37
4th quarter50 plays
Raiders16Rams3
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 18
Raiders16Rams9
Raiders16Rams10
Touchdown23 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Raiders 1
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Raiders16Rams16
Raiders16Rams17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 2 to the Raiders 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
