2022 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 8, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LV -6.5 upsetU 42.5 ✓DomeRaiders closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, LA +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:15LV 16 — LA 16LA ball · 2nd & 10LV 86%

(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:15LA +50% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:10LV +18% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp [97-M.Hoecht] at LV 49. 24-T.Rapp to LV 49 for no gain (17-D.Adams).
Q1 · 13:42LA +8% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to LA 38 for 32 yards (5-J.Ramsey). Penalty on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 1:20LA +8% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 18-B.Skowronek to LV 40 for 32 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:17LV Touchdown
(9:17) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — LA 0
Q1 · 2:27LV Field goal
(2:27) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 10 — LA 0
Q1 · 0:11LA Field goal
(:11) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LV 10 — LA 3
Q2 · 9:44LV Field goal
(9:44) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 13 — LA 3
Q4 · 12:25LV Field goal
(12:25) 2-D.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 16 — LA 3
Q4 · 3:25LA Touchdown
(3:25) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 16 — LA 10
Q4 · 0:15LA Touchdown
(:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 16 — LA 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Rams
Offensive plays	58	59
Total yards	302 (edge)	283
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	45% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	40%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.45
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	14	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Raiders outgained Rams 302–283 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Baker MayfieldQB

22/35, 230 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.9 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

11/20, 137 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

27 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

12 att, 42 yds, 1 TD

-5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Ben SkowronekWR

7/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

3/7 for 71 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	14	70	5:47	Touchdown +7
2	LA	LA 32	5	3	2:10	Punt
3	LV	LV 20	8	41	4:41	Field goal +3
4	LA	LA 34	6	29	2:16	Field goal +3
5	LV	LV 31	11	51	5:26	Field goal +3
6	LA	LA 22	9	58	4:55	Fumble
7	LV	LV 17	10	73	3:56	Interception
8	LA	LA 20	3	5	0:49	End of half
9	LA	LA 18	8	2	2:50	Punt
10	LV	LV 42	4	19	1:52	Punt
11	LA	LA 13	6	17	2:10	Punt
12	LV	LV 17	4	8	1:35	Punt
13	LA	LA 17	7	24	3:51	Missed field goal
14	LV	LA 49	11	31	5:22	Field goal +3
15	LA	LA 25	19	74	9:01	Touchdown +7
16	LV	LV 25	5	9	1:34	Punt
17	LA	LA 2	9	71	1:35	Touchdown +7
18	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
19	LA	LV 49	1	0	0:02	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 74 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	11/20	137	0	2	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	27	99	3.7	1	-1.8
Mack Hollins	3	40	13.3	0	3.4
Derek Carr	4	11	2.8	0	0.3
Zamir White	3	9	3.0	0	0.2
D.J. Turner	1	6	6.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	3	7	71	37%	2.0
Mack Hollins	2	4	22	21%	-2.8
Ameer Abdullah	2	2	17	11%	1.5
Josh Jacobs	2	2	15	11%	0.8
Keelan Cole	1	1	11	5%	0.8
Jakob Johnson	1	1	1	5%	-0.8
D.J. Turner	0	1	0	5%	-0.9
Foster Moreau	0	1	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nate Hobbs	8	1	0.0	1
Denzel Perryman	3	4	0.0	0
Sam Webb	3	3	0.0	1
Isaiah Pola-Mao	1	3	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	2	2	1.0	1
Tyler Hall	2	1	0.0	0
Amik Robertson	3	0	1.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	0	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	1	2	1.0	0
Roderic Teamer	1	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/35	230	1	0	4	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	12	42	3.5	1	-5.2
Kyren Williams	3	19	6.3	0	0.7
Baker Mayfield	4	10	2.5	0	-1.4
Malcolm Brown	1	5	5.0	0	-0.1
Tutu Atwell	2	-5	-2.5	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ben Skowronek	7	8	89	0	24%	5.5
Tutu Atwell	5	9	50	0	26%	-2.6
Van Jefferson	2	4	44	1	12%	4.0
Malcolm Brown	2	2	12	0	6%	0.3
Tyler Higbee	2	3	11	0	9%	0.3
Kyren Williams	1	2	10	0	6%	-0.6
Brycen Hopkins	1	1	8	0	3%	-2.3
Austin Trammell	1	2	5	0	6%	1.5
Cam Akers	1	1	1	0	3%	2.2
Brandon Powell	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	6	7	0	0
Troy Hill	6	2	0	0
Greg Gaines	3	3	0	0
Michael Hoecht	3	2	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	3	2	0	1
Marquise Copeland	1	3	0	0
Nick Scott	4	0	0	0
Ernest Jones	1	3	1	1
Taylor Rapp	1	2	1	1
Jonah Williams	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -6.5
Closing total: 42.5
LV moneyline: -283
LA moneyline: +245

Raiders closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 33 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: LV 4 days · LA 4 days
Coaches: Josh McDaniels vs Sean McVay