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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q2 1:06, 1st and 3, on Dalvin Cook — 18.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 34–23. Biggest swing: Q2 1:06, Lions +18.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:06 · 1st and 3
Dalvin Cook
Lions
(1:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook sacked at DET 6 for -3 yards (96-I.Buggs). FUMBLES (96-I.Buggs) [96-I.Buggs], touched at DET 8, RECOVERED by DET-31-K.Joseph at DET 16. 31-K.Joseph to DET 22 for 6 yards (8-K.Cousins; 72-E.Cleveland).
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.63 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Vikings at +0.06 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(1:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook sacked at DET 6 for -3 yards (96-I.Buggs). FUMBLES (96-I.Buggs) [96-I.Buggs], touched at DET 8, RECOVERED by DET-31-K.Joseph at DET 16. 31-K.Joseph to DET 22 for 6 yards
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D.J. Chark's 48-yard touchdown catch with 6:42 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Adam Thielen23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · two-point no good+613–2110 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Lions ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Lions’s 69 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Lions 4.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings3.6 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 62 snaps
Lions2.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 85%
Tendencies room →Vikings68.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 50 early downs
Lions53.8%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 53.1%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Vikings17.8%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Lions31.7%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 115%
Fourth Down room →Vikings66.7%leaned — went for it · +29.8 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Lions33.3%inside their normal wobble · −17.4 vs their 50.7%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Vikings22.0%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Lions26.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Vikings7.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Lions19.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 29.8 points above their season mean of 36.9% and 1.1 times their own 28.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
31/41, 425 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
21.6 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected
Passing · DET
27/39, 330 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.3 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
11/15 for 223 yds, 0 TD
38% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
D.J. Chark banked 8.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.3 | +5.7 | 94% | 96% | 38% | 51% | 11/15, 223 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 26.1 | +6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 330 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 9 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 25.0 | +5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/41, 425 yd, 2 TD |
| D.J. CharkWR · Featured Receiver | 21.4 | +8.6 | 86% | 90% | 19% | 29% | 6/7, 94 yd, 1 TD |
| Adam ThielenWR · Featured Receiver | 19.5 | +4.3 | 94% | 93% | 20% | 18% | 7/8, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.1 | +2.1 | 61% | 68% | 17% | 26% | 5/6, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.8 | +5.7 | 74% | 80% | 13% | 5% | 5/5, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 13.7 | +1.1 | 95% | 96% | 20% | 14% | 6/8, 77 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.4 | −1.6 | 87% | 90% | 25% | 24% | 1 car, 6 yd · 6/9, 68 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +6.0 | 19% | 15% | 6% | 11% | 1/2, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin JacksonRB | 10.1 | +6.1 | 29% | 39% | 3% | 2% | 4 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.6 | −5.7 | 85% | 83% | 5% | 1% | 15 car, 23 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 13 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Receiving Back | 6.9 | −2.9 | 36% | 41% | 11% | 0% | 6 car, 21 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.7 | 11% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Shane ZylstraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | 0.0 | 33% | 39% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 3.7 | −4.8 | 37% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 16 car, 37 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 1.9 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jason CabindaRB | 0.0 | — | 16% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 57% | 49% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen NailorWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Alexander MattisonRB | -0.1 | −1.0 | 15% | 17% | 0% | — | 2 car, -1 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook sacked at DET 6 for -3 yards (96-I.Buggs). FUMBLES (96-I.Buggs) [96-I.Buggs], touched at DET 8, RECOVERED by DET-31-K.Joseph at DET 16. 31-K.Joseph to DET 22 for 6 yards (8-K.Cousins; 72-E.Cleveland).
Q2 1:06 · Vikings · 1st & goal at DET 3 · lost 5 · -6.89 EP · −17.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 76 yards from the DET 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings0
Lions6Vikings0Lions7Vikings6Lions7Vikings7Lions7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings7Lions13Vikings7Lions14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Vikings7Lions20Vikings7Lions21Vikings13Lions21Vikings13Lions27Vikings13Lions28Vikings16Lions28Vikings16Lions31Vikings22Lions31Vikings23Lions31Vikings23Lions34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/41 | 425 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +21.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 15 | 23 | 1.5 | 1 | −9.5 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 15 | 223 | 0 | 38% | +10.7 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/39 | 330 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +14.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_MIN_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 57 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 20% |
| +3.0 |
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 8 | 65 | 1 | 20% | +6.0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 13% | +5.2 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Peterson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Dantzler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Moore | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 0 | +4.5 |
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 37 | 2.3 | 0 | −5.1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Justin Jackson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Chark | 6 | 7 | 94 | 1 | 19% | +5.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 25% | +0.4 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 17% | +3.8 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 6% | +3.2 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 11% | −1.4 |
| Shane Zylstra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Penei Sewell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerry Jacobs | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Oruwariye | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Okudah | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShon Elliott | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kerby Joseph | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alim McNeill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
