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2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Ford Field

Minnesota Vikings

23

Detroit LionsWinner

34

DET -2.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 34–23. Biggest swing: Q2 1:06, MIN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑MIN ↓
Q2 · 1:06MIN 7 — DET 14MIN ball · 1st & 3DET 58%

(1:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook sacked at DET 6 for -3 yards (96-I.Buggs). FUMBLES (96-I.Buggs) [96-I.Buggs], touched at DET 8, RECOVERED by DET-31-K.Joseph at DET 16. 31-K.Joseph to DET 22 for 6 yards

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:06MIN +18% win prob(1:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook sacked at DET 6 for -3 yards (96-I.Buggs). FUMBLES (96-I.Buggs) [96-I.Buggs], touched at DET 8, RECOVERED by DET-31-K.Joseph at DET 16. 31-K.Joseph to DET 22 for 6 yards (8-K.Cousins; 72-E.Cleveland).
  2. Q1 · 10:34DET +11% win prob(10:34) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 6:42DET +11% win prob(6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 4-D.Chark for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 2:24DET +10% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:34DET Touchdown

    (10:34) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — DET 7
  2. Q1 · 4:06MIN Touchdown

    (4:06) 74-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 4-D.Cook left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DET 7
  3. Q2 · 6:42DET Touchdown

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 4-D.Chark for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DET 14
  4. Q3 · 5:48DET Touchdown

    (5:48) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DET 21
  5. Q3 · 2:24MIN Touchdown

    (2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIN 13 — DET 21
  6. Q4 · 13:35DET Touchdown

    (13:35) 42-J.Jackson left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 13 — DET 28
  7. Q4 · 10:52MIN Field goal

    (10:52) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 16 — DET 28
  8. Q4 · 4:10DET Field goal

    (4:10) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: MIN 16 — DET 31
  9. Q4 · 2:56MIN Touchdown

    (2:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 23 — DET 31
  10. Q4 · 0:22DET Field goal

    (:22) 17-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: MIN 23 — DET 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsLions
Offensive plays6369
Total yards416464 (edge)
Yards per play6.66.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.060.23 (edge)
Success rate43%45% (edge)
Dropback rate73%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.320.41 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.63-0.04 (edge)
Third downs4/107/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2222
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

31/41, 425 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

21.6 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

27/39, 330 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

16 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

15 att, 23 yds, 1 TD

-9.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

11/15 for 223 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · DET

D.J. CharkWR

6/7 for 94 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 21511:01Punt
2MINMIN 216202:41Turnover on downs
3DETMIN 463460:51Touchdown +7
4MINMIN 2512646:25Touchdown +7
5DETDET 2511314:06Turnover on downs
6MINMIN 396182:06Punt
7DETDET 1310474:52Punt
8MINMIN 10491:16Punt
9DETMIN 482480:08Touchdown +7
10MINMIN 2513675:35Fumble
11DETDET 226490:49Missed field goal
12MINMIN 37270:10End of half
13MINMIN 25592:12Punt
14DETDET 24131017:04Touchdown +7
15MINMIN 259753:27Touchdown +6
16DETDET 2512753:49Touchdown +7
17MINMIN 258522:41Field goal +3
18DETDET 2513526:41Field goal +3
19MINMIN 258751:16Touchdown +7
20DETMIN 448142:33Field goal +3
21MINMIN 253200:17Fumble

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 101 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins31/4142520321.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dalvin Cook15231.51-9.5
Alexander Mattison2-1-0.50-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson1115223038%10.7
T.J. Hockenson6877020%3.0
Adam Thielen7865120%6.0
K.J. Osborn5538113%5.2
Dalvin Cook121305%0.4
C.J. Ham11903%0.8
Jalen Reagor01003%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Kendricks530.000
Dalvin Tomlinson620.000
Josh Metellus620.000
Jordan Hicks510.001
Patrick Peterson500.000
Harrison Phillips130.000
Chandon Sullivan300.000
Cameron Dantzler210.000
Khyiris Tonga120.000
Jalen Nailor200.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff27/3933030014.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
C.J. Moore14242.004.5
Jamaal Williams16372.30-5.1
D'Andre Swift6213.50-0.6
Justin Jackson4194.81-0.5
Jared Goff294.502.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown166.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Chark6794119%5.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown6968025%0.4
Josh Reynolds5651117%3.8
Jameson Williams124116%3.2
Kalif Raymond221906%1.5
D'Andre Swift3418011%-1.4
Shane Zylstra221806%1.1
Justin Jackson111203%1.9
Penei Sewell11903%1.1
Jamaal Williams01003%-0.8
Brock Wright01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone530.001
Jerry Jacobs521.001
Mike Hughes510.000
Amani Oruwariye410.000
Jeff Okudah310.000
Malcolm Rodriguez220.000
DeShon Elliott400.001
Kerby Joseph300.000
Alim McNeill110.000
Aidan Hutchinson201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -2.5
Closing total
51.5
MIN moneyline
+119
DET moneyline
-132

Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 57 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
MIN 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.