2022 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 12, 2022 · State Farm Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

NE -2 ✓U 44 ✓DomePatriots closed -2 and covered, winning by 14.

New England Patriots 27–13. Biggest swing: Q3 5:42, NE +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:42NE 19 — ARI 13ARI ball · 1st & 10NE 55%

(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:42NE +23% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:29ARI +16% win prob(12:29) (Shotgun) 35-P.Strong left end to ARI 12 for 44 yards (33-A.Hamilton; 21-T.Mullen).
Q1 · 2:15NE +11% win prob(2:15) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-T.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Simmons (97-C.Thomas) at NE 41. 9-I.Simmons to NE 36 for 5 yards (25-Ma.Jones).
Q3 · 7:59NE +10% win prob(7:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:56ARI Field goal
(14:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: NE 0 — ARI 3
Q2 · 11:32NE Touchdown
(11:32) (Shotgun) 36-K.Harris up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — ARI 3
Q2 · 9:38ARI Field goal
(9:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: NE 7 — ARI 6
Q2 · 3:07ARI Touchdown
(3:07) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — ARI 13
Q2 · 0:04NE Field goal
(:04) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 10 — ARI 13
Q3 · 10:18NE Field goal
(10:18) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 13 — ARI 13
Q3 · 5:42NE Touchdown
(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 20 — ARI 13
Q4 · 14:13NE Touchdown
(14:13) (Shotgun) 35-P.Strong up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 27 — ARI 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Cardinals
Offensive plays	54	69
Total yards	331 (edge)	323
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.38
Success rate	41%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.53
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	0.06
Third downs	3/10 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Colt McCoyQB

27/40, 246 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-20.4 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

24/35, 235 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.2 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

15 att, 85 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Pierre StrongRB

5 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

7/11 for 79 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -11.6 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

3/3 for 70 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 26	10	45	4:26	Missed field goal
2	NE	NE 40	5	15	1:22	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 4	6	42	4:16	Punt
4	NE	NE 3	6	31	2:48	Interception
5	ARI	NE 36	7	21	2:16	Field goal +3
6	NE	NE 25	10	61	3:27	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 30	7	17	1:50	Field goal +3
8	NE	NE 21	8	15	2:42	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 37	8	63	3:54	Touchdown +7
10	NE	NE 23	5	-11	1:17	Punt
11	ARI	NE 41	4	9	1:10	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 32	6	40	0:32	Field goal +3
13	NE	NE 25	9	81	4:45	Field goal +3
14	ARI	ARI 25	7	39	2:21	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 41	4	4	1:35	Punt
16	ARI	ARI 6	2	11	0:47	Defensive touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 24	8	41	4:25	Interception
18	NE	NE 37	6	63	1:58	Touchdown +7
19	ARI	ARI 24	5	-10	1:36	Punt
20	NE	NE 49	4	12	2:44	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 20	10	18	4:53	Turnover on downs
22	NE	ARI 41	4	1	1:01	Punt
23	ARI	ARI 20	6	27	1:37	Turnover on downs
24	NE	ARI 37	4	19	2:18	End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 81 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	24/35	235	0	1	1	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Pierre Strong	5	70	14.0	1	4.2
Kevin Harris	8	26	3.3	1	0.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	8	2.7	0	-0.9
Mac Jones	5	-1	-0.2	0	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	3	3	70	9%	4.6
Kendrick Bourne	5	5	47	15%	2.9
Nelson Agholor	5	10	32	30%	-2.7
Tyquan Thornton	4	5	28	15%	-4.6
DeVante Parker	2	2	24	6%	2.1
Pierre Strong	2	2	20	6%	1.7
Marcus Jones	1	1	12	3%	1.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	3	2	9%	-2.5
Jonnu Smith	0	2	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	7	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	6	2	0.0	0	0
Marcus Jones	6	1	0.0	1	2
Myles Bryant	4	2	0.0	0	0
Joshua Uche	3	1	3.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	2	0.5	0	0
Matt Judon	3	1	1.5	0	0
Jonathan Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	1	2	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	27/40	246	0	1	6	-20.4
Kyler Murray	1/1	9	0	0	0	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	15	85	5.7	1	2.4
Colt McCoy	5	24	4.8	0	-0.6
Kyler Murray	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Keaontay Ingram	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	11	79	27%	-11.6
Robbie Chosen	4	4	50	10%	4.0
Marquise Brown	4	8	34	20%	-4.2
James Conner	6	7	29	17%	-2.2
Trey McBride	3	6	28	15%	-3.3
Corey Clement	1	1	21	2%	2.4
A.J. Green	1	2	7	5%	-1.2
Stephen Anderson	2	2	7	5%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Isaiah Simmons	2	4	0.0	1	1
Ben Niemann	2	3	0.0	0	0
Trayvon Mullen	3	2	0.0	0	1
Antonio Hamilton	4	1	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Zaven Collins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Myjai Sanders	2	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Allen	2	0	1.0	0	1
Marco Wilson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2
Closing total: 44
NE moneyline: -125
ARI moneyline: +113

Patriots closed -2 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: NE 11 days · ARI 15 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Kliff Kingsbury