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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 12, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 14
It turned at Q3 5:42, 1st and 10, on DeAndre Hopkins — 23.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:42 · 1st and 10
DeAndre Hopkins
Patriots
(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New England Patriots 27–13. Biggest swing: Q3 5:42, Patriots +23.5% win probability on one snap.
23.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.07 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at +0.06 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Raekwon McMillan's 23-yard touchdown with 5:42 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Raekwon McMillan23-yd defence TD23-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+720–138 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryCardinals
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 54 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 69 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Cardinals 3.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, is past their previous low of 5.8% in week 7 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected, +5.4 pts, is past their previous high of +4.2 pts in week 10 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points.
ARI's play-action rate, 26.9%, is past their previous high of 21.2% in week 12 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots7.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.5 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 54 snaps
Cardinals5.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.2 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 84%
Tendencies room →Patriots63.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 44 early downs
Cardinals70.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 45%
Tendencies room →Patriots24.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals26.9%leaned — faked the run · +12.1 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -48% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
Cardinals66.7%inside their normal wobble · +15.1 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±19.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 62%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.4%inside their normal wobble · −10.9 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Cardinals32.4%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.4%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Cardinals2.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
ARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 13.7 points below their season mean of 16.4% and 1.7 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
27/40, 246 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-20.4 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Passing · NE
24/35, 235 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-2.2 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
7/11 for 79 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · -11.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Pierre Strong banked 9.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.4 | +6.4 | 95% | 87% | 17% | 0% | 15 car, 85 yd, 1 TD · 6/7, 29 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 17.0 | +9.7 | 32% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 5 car, 70 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 20 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −6.3 | 85% | 79% | 27% | 40% | 7/11, 79 yd |
| Colt McCoyQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | −10.0 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 27/40, 246 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 24 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +4.9 | 66% | 65% | 9% | 27% | 3/3, 70 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +1.9 | 71% | 70% | 15% | 11% | 5/5, 47 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +2.5 | 31% | 31% | 10% | 10% | 4/4, 50 yd |
| Kevin HarrisRB | 8.6 | +4.6 | 49% | 46% | 0% | — | 8 car, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −8.1 | 97% | 97% | 30% | 52% | 5/10, 32 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −8.0 | 96% | 85% | 20% | 28% | 4/8, 34 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/35, 235 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, -1 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −1.2 | 88% | 95% | 15% | 9% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −3.8 | 73% | 63% | 15% | 17% | 3/6, 28 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Corey ClementRB | 3.1 | +1.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 3.0 | −2.8 | 22% | 24% | 9% | 0% | 3 car, 8 yd · 2/3, 2 yd |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.4 | 19% | 13% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.3 | 60% | 65% | 5% | 6% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB | 0.7 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keaontay IngramRB | 0.1 | −0.5 | 12% | 13% | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pharoh CooperWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 47% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Raleigh WebbWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Matt SlaterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 5:42 · Cardinals · 1st & 10 at ARI 18 · gained 4 · -8.11 EP · −26.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
Patriots0
Cardinals3Patriots6Cardinals3Patriots7Cardinals3Patriots7Cardinals6Patriots7Cardinals12Patriots7Cardinals13How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Patriots10Cardinals13How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Patriots13Cardinals13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Patriots19Cardinals13Patriots20Cardinals13How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots26Cardinals13Patriots27Cardinals13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/35 | 235 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 5 | 70 | 14.0 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Kevin Harris | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 70 | 0 | 9% | +4.6 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 15% | +2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 27/40 | 246 | 0 | 1 | 6 | −20.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_14_NE_ARI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| Mac Jones | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 30% | −2.7 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 15% | −4.6 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6% | +2.1 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +1.7 |
| Marcus Jones | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −2.5 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 79 | 0 | 27% | −11.6 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 10% | +4.0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 20% | −4.2 |
| James Conner | 6 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 17% | −2.2 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 15% | −3.3 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2% | +2.4 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Simmons | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ben Niemann | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trayvon Mullen | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Hamilton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myjai Sanders | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marco Wilson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
