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Buffalo Bills 20, Jets 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:05, 1st and 10, on Zonovan Knight — 11.8 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:05 · 1st and 10
Zonovan Knight
Jets
(10:05) (Shotgun) 27-Z.Knight left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 20–12. Biggest swing: Q3 10:05, Jets +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ1 13:39(13:39) 8-S.Martin punts 67 yards to NYJ 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.
7.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ1 2:36(2:36) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at BUF 48 for 10 yards (4-J.Johnson).
7.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 17 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 13 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bills won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.32 expected points per carry.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets170 of 179 plays carry both curves
(10:05) (Shotgun) 27-Z.Knight left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.8 for BillsExpected points −2.04 for BillsThe model had Jets 17 points higher than the market did.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:05BUF +12% win prob(10:05) (Shotgun) 27-Z.Knight left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:36BUF +8% win prob(2:36) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at BUF 48 for 10 yards (4-J.Johnson).
1st · 13:39BUF +7% win prob(13:39) 8-S.Martin punts 67 yards to NYJ 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.
2nd · 0:34BUF +7% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [47-B.Huff].
2nd · 14:19BUF +7% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle to BUF 41 for 16 yards (29-L.Joyner).
2nd · 4:29NYJ +7% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 5-M.White sacked at 50 for -10 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], touched at 50, recovered by NYJ-87-C.Uzomah at NYJ 49.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 7:24 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
3rd7:24Josh Allen·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–14
3rd2:11Tyler Bass·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–17
4th12:28Tyler Bass·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+37–20
4th7:35Jets·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+29–20
4th1:21Greg Zuerlein·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+312–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Jets4–3Bills
309Total yards233
4.2Yards per play4.4
38%Success rate34%
47%Third-down rate15%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays6
20First downs11
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Jets ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Jets: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.05Bills: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Jets: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.19Bills: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 73 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bills’s 53 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Bills 3.
NoteJets outgained Bills 309-233 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 14.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 5 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 43.9 points.
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills15.7%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 24.2%, 9.7 points above their season mean of 14.5% and 1.5 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.White pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:42) M.White returns at QB. (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right to 17-G.Wilson ran ob at BUF 38 for 12 yards.
Q2 5:42 · Jets · 3rd & 10 at 50 · gained 12 · +2.06 EP · +9.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
37%
Yards
541
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.1878%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0959%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3518%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 31
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 2 to the Jets 27
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Jets 49
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 41
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 30
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Bills 48
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 24
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Jets 42
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Bills 38
Jets0Bills6
Jets0Bills7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Jets 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Jets6Bills7
Jets7Bills7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Bills 13
Jets7Bills13
Jets7Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 5
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Jets 25 to midfield
Jets7Bills17
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 20
Punt6 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Jets7Bills20
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Jets 29
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bills 47
Jets9Bills20
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 9
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Bills 28
Punt5 plays
Jets12Bills20
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Bills 9
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 34
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -10
Closing total
43.5
Jets moneyline
+332
Bills moneyline
-398
Bills closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 32 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 38°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the south-west; 0.07 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Jets 7 days · Bills 10 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 7:24
BUF +6% win prob
(7:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:56BUF +6% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 32 yards (29-L.Joyner) [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
