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2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · New Era Field
12
20
Buffalo Bills 20–12. Biggest swing: Q3 10:05, BUF +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(10:05) (Shotgun) 27-Z.Knight left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [47-B.Huff]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 0 — BUF 7(10:05) (Shotgun) 27-Z.Knight left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BUF 7(7:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BUF 14(2:11) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BUF 17(12:28) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BUF 20(7:35) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.Johnson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
Score after this play: NYJ 9 — BUF 20(1:21) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: NYJ 12 — BUF 20Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jets | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 73 | 53 |
| Total yards | 309 (edge) | 233 |
| Yards per play | 4.2 | 4.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.17 | -0.10 (edge) |
| Success rate | 38% (edge) | 34% |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 62% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.11 | -0.05 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.32 | -0.19 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/17 (edge) | 2/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 11 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Jets outgained Bills 309–233 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
27/44, 268 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.9 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
16/27, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.8 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 23 | 5 | 8 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 2 | NYJ | NYJ 2 | 8 | 30 | 5:02 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 33 | 6 | 16 | 2:24 | Punt | |
| 4 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 7 | 26 | 2:44 | Punt | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 18 | 4 | 4 | 0:53 | Punt | |
| 6 | NYJ | BUF 48 | 4 | -9 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 20 | 10 | 28 | 4:27 | Punt | |
| 8 | NYJ | NYJ 6 | 6 | 18 | 3:28 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | 50 | 4 | 2 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 10 | NYJ | NYJ 26 | 8 | 27 | 3:42 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 30 | 8 | 59 | 2:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | NYJ | NYJ 24 | 2 | 4 | 0:26 | End of half | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 28 | 12 | 72 | 5:01 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 55 | 2:39 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 7 | 19 | 2:50 | Fumble | |
| 16 | BUF | NYJ 44 | 5 | 34 | 2:23 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 3 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 18 | BUF | BUF 48 | 5 | 21 | 2:37 | Field goal +3 | |
| 19 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 10 | 24 | 3:57 | Punt | |
| 20 | BUF | BUF 8 | 4 | 1 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 21 | NYJ | NYJ 37 | 6 | 40 | 1:56 | Fumble | |
| 22 | BUF | BUF 22 | 4 | 0 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 23 | NYJ | NYJ 36 | 9 | 55 | 1:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 24 | BUF | BUF 29 | 5 | 5 | 0:32 | Punt | |
| 25 | NYJ | NYJ 21 | 4 | 0 | 0:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 26 | BUF | NYJ 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:26 | End of game |
6 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 72 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 27/44 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.9 |
| Joe Flacco | 1/3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zonovan Knight | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 1 | 1.6 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | -8.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 16% | 10.9 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 23% | -2.5 |
| Denzel Mims | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/27 | 147 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -10, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 32 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 18% | -2.3 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 7% | 1.2 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 14% | -3.1 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2% | 2.3 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | -1.2 |
| Zonovan Knight | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | -0.4 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Lamarcus Joyner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| James Cook | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 26% | 1.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 19% | -0.6 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 15% | 1.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% | -0.4 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | -0.9 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | -0.2 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.9 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dane Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tre'Davious White | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carlos Basham | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
