For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(12:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence].
Swing −5.3 for GiantsExpected points −7.04 for GiantsThe model had Giants 18 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:14NYG +5% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence].
1st · 12:28NYG +5% win prob(12:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PHI 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 16 for 1 yard (38-Z.Gilbert).
1st · 13:48PHI +4% win prob(13:48) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 35 for -7 yards (94-J.Sweat).
1st · 10:22NYG +3% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right guard to NYG 47 for 9 yards (96-H.Mondeaux).
1st · 14:21NYG +2% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins to NYG 42 for 14 yards (22-M.Epps).
1st · 12:19NYG +2% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 81-G.Calcaterra to PHI 29 for 13 yards (44-N.McCloud).
1st · 8:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Miles Sanders's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 4:20 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:20Miles Sanders·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Eagles ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.40Eagles: +0.40 expected points added per play
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Eagles: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.02Giants: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.65Eagles: +0.65 expected points added per play
−0.15Giants: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 8, Giants 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 27.3%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 7.3 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Giants13.9%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.3%, 9.5 points above their season mean of 17.7% and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence].
Q2 12:14 · Eagles · 4th & 7 at NYG 41 · gained 41 · +7.04 EP · +11.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
743
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0264%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3074%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.5424%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2657%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 42
Eagles6Giants0
Eagles7Giants0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Giants 3
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 29
2nd quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles13Giants0
Eagles14Giants0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Giants 41
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
Eagles20Giants0
Eagles21Giants0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Eagles 46
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 13
Eagles21Giants6
Eagles21Giants7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 2
Eagles24Giants7
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Eagles27Giants7
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Giants 20
Eagles27Giants13
Eagles27Giants14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 1
Eagles33Giants14
Eagles34Giants14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Giants 10
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 18
Eagles40Giants14
Eagles41Giants14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Giants 40
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 27
Eagles47Giants14
Eagles48Giants14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 3
Eagles48Giants20
Eagles48Giants22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 19
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
