2022 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 11, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -3.5 ✓O 38 ✓49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 28.

San Francisco 49ers 35–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:54, SF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:54TB 0 — SF 0SF ball · 3rd & 7SF 61%

(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to TB 34 for 15 yards (26-L.Ryan). 1 YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:54SF +9% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to TB 34 for 15 yards (26-L.Ryan). 1 YAC
Q1 · 8:14TB +6% win prob(8:14) 3-R.Succop 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Q1 · 4:53TB +4% win prob(4:53) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 13 yards (41-K.Kieft).
Q2 · 15:00SF +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:33SF Touchdown
(12:33) 19-D.Samuel right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 7
Q2 · 15:00SF Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 14
Q2 · 7:55SF Touchdown
(7:55) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Hicks]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 21
Q2 · 0:22SF Touchdown
(:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Senat]. 4 YAC (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 28
Q3 · 14:09SF Touchdown
(14:09) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — SF 35
Q3 · 2:56TB Touchdown
(2:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball was deflected off TB 14 Godwin and caught by TB 17 Gage 0 YAC The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — SF 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	49ers
Offensive plays	73	58
Total yards	323	405 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	44%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/16	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

34/55, 253 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-9.5 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

16/21, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

14 att, 119 yds, 1 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

11 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

2/3 for 57 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

5/9 for 54 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 33	7	52	2:34	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 23	11	40	4:17	Missed field goal
3	SF	SF 45	4	5	1:43	Punt
4	TB	TB 30	4	10	1:43	Punt
5	SF	SF 38	9	55	4:48	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 18	5	7	1:45	Punt
7	SF	SF 29	10	71	5:21	Touchdown +7
8	TB	TB 26	5	4	1:04	Punt
9	SF	SF 34	5	21	1:40	Fumble
10	TB	TB 40	8	51	2:36	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 9	8	86	2:14	Touchdown +7
12	TB	TB 30	2	0	0:15	End of half
13	TB	SF 44	4	5	0:47	Interception
14	SF	TB 38	3	38	0:12	Touchdown +7
15	TB	TB 21	13	46	4:17	Interception
16	SF	SF 24	4	3	2:30	Punt
17	TB	TB 26	14	79	4:26	Touchdown +7
18	SF	SF 31	8	30	4:17	Punt
19	TB	TB 8	15	72	4:51	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 35	6	31	3:52	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 34	4	9	1:19	Fumble
22	SF	TB 32	5	13	3:29	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	34/55	253	1	2	0	-9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	13	56	4.3	-2.9
Leonard Fournette	4	13	3.3	1.1
Tom Brady	2	0	0.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	5	9	54	0	18%	0.7
Mike Evans	4	9	44	0	18%	-12.4
Julio Jones	5	8	38	0	16%	0.7
Leonard Fournette	6	7	33	0	14%	3.4
Cade Otton	4	5	28	0	10%	0.5
Rachaad White	5	5	21	0	10%	-0.9
Russell Gage	2	2	12	1	4%	3.5
Cameron Brate	2	4	12	0	8%	-2.4
Ko Kieft	1	1	11	0	2%	0.8
Scott Miller	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Logan Ryan	7	1	0
Anthony Nelson	2	4	0
Devin White	4	1	0
Lavonte David	3	2	0
Keanu Neal	2	3	0
Ko Kieft	2	1	0
Dee Delaney	3	0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0
Akiem Hicks	1	2	1
William Gholston	1	2	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	16/21	185	2	0	0	8.6
Josh Johnson	1/2	10	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	14	119	8.5	1	5.6
Jordan Mason	11	56	5.1	0	0.4
Deebo Samuel	4	21	5.3	1	-3.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	3	7	2.3	0	-2.5
Brock Purdy	2	3	1.5	1	1.2
Josh Johnson	2	3	1.5	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	2	3	57	1	14%	5.2
Deebo Samuel	4	5	43	0	23%	1.2
Christian McCaffrey	2	3	34	1	14%	3.3
George Kittle	4	5	28	0	23%	-0.2
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	11	0	5%	0.6
Danny Gray	1	1	10	0	5%	2.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	7	0	9%	-0.0
Jauan Jennings	1	2	5	0	9%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Dre Greenlaw	7	5	1	1
Jimmie Ward	6	2	0	1
Charvarius Ward	5	2	0	0
Fred Warner	4	3	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	2	3	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	4	1	1	1
Ambry Thomas	2	2	0	0
Nick Bosa	3	0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	1	2	0	1
George Odum	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 38
TB moneyline: +175
SF moneyline: -196

49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 38; the game landed 42 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: TB 6 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Kyle Shanahan