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1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Buccaneers165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to TB 34 for 15 yards (26-L.Ryan). 1 YAC
Swing +9.2 for 49ersExpected points +2.24 for 49ersThe model had Buccaneers 7 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:54SF +9% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to TB 34 for 15 yards (26-L.Ryan). 1 YAC
1st · 8:14TB +6% win prob(8:14) 3-R.Succop 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
1st · 4:53TB +4% win prob(4:53) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 13 yards (41-K.Kieft).
2nd · 15:00SF +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00SF +3% win prob5-J.Camarda kicks 56 yards from TB 35 to SF 9. 3-R.McCloud to SF 33 for 24 yards (41-K.Kieft; 53-O.Fatukasi).
1st · 5:43TB +3% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TB-76-D.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 32 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 12:33 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:33Deebo Samuel·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
3rd2:56Russell Gage·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–35
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by category49ers
Buccaneers0–849ers
323Total yards405
4.4Yards per play7.0
44%Success rate52%
25%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays12
18First downs21
0Sacks taken0
3Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Buccaneers: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.3649ers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.0349ers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 73 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against 49ers’s 58 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 2, 49ers 6.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 83.3%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 14.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
49ers12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
NoteTB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 41.3 points above their season mean of 42.0% and 1.9 times their own 21.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
72Josh WellsT · Every snap100%76 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%76 snaps
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%76 snaps
60Nick LeverettG · Every snap100%76 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%76 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time91%69 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time87%66 snaps
6Julio JonesWR · Heavy rotation72%55 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Heavy rotation59%45 snaps
29Rachaad WhiteRB · Heavy rotation53%40 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Rotational47%36 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational37%28 snaps
17Russell GageWR · Rotational33%25 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational14%11 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sean Murphy-BuntingCBMike EdwardsFSAntoine WinfieldFSKyle TraskQBTristan WirfsTKyle RudolphTEBreshad PerrimanWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
John MolchonGLuke GoedekeGBlaine GabbertQB
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%63 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Full-time92%58 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time92%58 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time92%58 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time83%52 snaps
85George KittleTE · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation70%44 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to TB 34 for 15 yards (26-L.Ryan). 1 YAC
Q1 13:54 · 49ers · 3rd & 7 at TB 49 · gained 15 · +2.24 EP · +9.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 91 yards from the SF 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
726
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR66-0.2174%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR36+0.1928%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.1875%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Buccaneers049ers6
Buccaneers049ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Buccaneers 13
The period ended12 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the 49ers 37
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 32
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Buccaneers 1
2nd quarter52 plays
Buccaneers049ers13
Buccaneers049ers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 25
Buccaneers049ers20
Buccaneers049ers21
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 30
Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the Buccaneers 43
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the 49ers 8
Buccaneers049ers27
Buccaneers049ers28
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the Buccaneers 32
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 39
Buccaneers049ers34
Buccaneers049ers35
Touchdown3 plays
Intercepted13 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the 49ers 33
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 28
Buccaneers649ers35
Buccaneers749ers35
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the 49ers 8
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Buccaneers 44
4th quarter37 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 39
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the 49ers 33
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Buccaneers 34
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3.5
Closing total
38
Buccaneers moneyline
+175
49ers moneyline
-196
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 38; the game landed 42 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Buccaneers 6 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Kyle Shanahan
2nd · 5:10
TB +3% win prob
(5:10) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel up the middle to TB 40 for 3 yards (98-A.Nelson; 56-R.Nunez-Roches). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 40. 54-L.David to TB 40 for no gain (11-B.Aiyuk). SF-19-D.Samuel was injured during the play.
1st · 12:21SF +3% win prob(12:21) 29-R.White right tackle to TB 32 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson).
