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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q2 0:42, 1st and 10, on Brett Rypien — 17.5 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:42 · 1st and 10
Brett Rypien
Cardinals
(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien sacked at DEN 49 for -7 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by ARI-41-M.Sanders at ARI 49. 41-M.Sanders to ARI 49 for no gain (73-C.Fleming).
Denver Broncos 24–15. Biggest swing: Q2 0:42, Cardinals +17.5% win probability on one snap.
17.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 12 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien sacked at DEN 49 for -7 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by ARI-41-M.Sanders at ARI 49. 41-M.Sanders to ARI 49 for no gain (73-C.Fleming).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marlon Mack's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:02 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 1, Broncos 4.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate, 30.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
DEN's blitz rate sent, 5.0%, is past their previous low of 19.1% in week 5 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.0% in week 14 against 48.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-2.5 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 59 snaps
Broncos-4.5 ptsright on their number · −2.0 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 84%
Tendencies room →Cardinals63.8%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 47 early downs
Broncos48.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 46%
Tendencies room →Cardinals15.0%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Broncos33.3%leaned — faked the run · +15.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.6%.
Broncos—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 62%
Tendencies room →Cardinals30.3%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Broncos5.0%off script — sat back · −24.9 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−2.15× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Cardinals30.3%leaned — got home · +13.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Broncos14.6%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
DEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 5.0%, 24.9 points below their season mean of 29.9% and 2.1 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
21/26, 197 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.0 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
7/15, 95 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-9.5 expected points added · -20.2% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
7/11 for 60 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Marlon Mack banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius MurrayRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.2 | +6.6 | 64% | 55% | 4% | 2% | 24 car, 130 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 12 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.1 | −0.1 | 91% | 88% | 14% | 0% | 16 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 28 yd |
| Marlon MackRB · Receiving Back | 16.3 | +6.8 | 29% | 42% | 15% | 0% | 5 car, 37 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 26 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | +3.4 | 74% | 91% | 31% | 26% | 7/8, 76 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.0 | −1.9 | 92% | 93% | 31% | 29% | 7/11, 60 yd |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +5.3 | 51% | 27% | 12% | 7% | 3/3, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +2.5 | 86% | 78% | 14% | 13% | 4/5, 55 yd |
| Brett RypienQB · Starter QB | 7.7 | −2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/26, 197 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −0.3 | 59% | 67% | 15% | 47% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 5.9 | −5.3 | 89% | 90% | 23% | 26% | 4/8, 19 yd |
| Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.2 | 20% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.9 | 68% | 85% | 8% | 3% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Freddie SwainWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.6 | 55% | 52% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −3.9 | 59% | 61% | 8% | 22% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Colt McCoyQB · Starter QB | 1.3 | −5.1 | 54% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 78 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Trace McSorleyQB · Starter QB | 0.6 | −4.6 | 46% | — | 0% | — | 7/15, 95 yd, 2 INT · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Devine OzigboRB | 0.2 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.1 | −1.6 | 30% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1 car, 1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keaontay IngramRB | 0.0 | −0.4 | 12% | 12% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 37% | 41% | 6% | 31% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 57% | 56% | 6% | 5% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:01) (No Huddle) 4-B.Rypien pass deep middle intended for 82-E.Saubert INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 1. 3-B.Baker to ARI 2 for 1 yard (82-E.Saubert).
Q3 0:01 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at ARI 25 · gained nothing · -3.87 EP · −17.1% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 80 yards from the DEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
Broncos3Cardinals3Broncos3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Cardinals6Broncos3Cardinals9Broncos3Cardinals9Broncos9Cardinals9Broncos10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Cardinals9Broncos16Cardinals9Broncos17Cardinals9Broncos23Cardinals9Broncos24Cardinals15Broncos24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trace McSorley | 7/15 | 95 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −9.5 |
| Colt McCoy | 13/21 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 | −0.0 |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Colt McCoy |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 31% | −1.2 |
| Trey McBride | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 14% | +3.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Thompson | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | 21/26 | 197 | 1 | 1 | 7 | −6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_ARI_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 39 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| James Conner | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 23% | −6.4 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −6.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jace Whittaker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Matthew | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| J.J. Watt | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Markus Golden | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |
| 130 |
| 5.4 |
| 1 |
| +2.0 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Brett Rypien | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 31% | +5.8 |
| Brandon Johnson | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15% | +0.3 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 12% | +3.2 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 15% | +0.9 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −4.2 |
| Andrew Beck | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kareem Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jonathan Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
