2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High

Arizona Cardinals

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -1.5 ✓O 37.5 ✓Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Denver Broncos 24–15. Biggest swing: Q2 0:42, ARI +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:42ARI 3 — DEN 3DEN ball · 1st & 10DEN 60%

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien sacked at DEN 49 for -7 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by ARI-41-M.Sanders at ARI 49. 41-M.Sanders to ARI 49 for no gain (73-C.Fleming).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:42ARI +18% win prob(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien sacked at DEN 49 for -7 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by ARI-41-M.Sanders at ARI 49. 41-M.Sanders to ARI 49 for no gain (73-C.Fleming).
Q3 · 0:01ARI +16% win prob(:01) (No Huddle) 4-B.Rypien pass deep middle intended for 82-E.Saubert INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 1. 3-B.Baker to ARI 2 for 1 yard (82-E.Saubert).
Q1 · 2:35ARI +14% win prob(2:35) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep middle intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons [49-A.Singleton] at ARI 44. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at ARI 24 for 20 yards (75-M.Garcia).
Q3 · 4:02ARI +9% win prob(4:02) 4-B.Rypien sacked at DEN 30 for -7 yards (93-J.Ledbetter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:31DEN Field goal
(10:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: ARI 0 — DEN 3
Q2 · 10:39ARI Field goal
(10:39) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — DEN 3
Q2 · 0:03ARI Field goal
(:03) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 6 — DEN 3
Q3 · 9:00ARI Field goal
(9:00) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 9 — DEN 3
Q3 · 6:02DEN Touchdown
(6:02) 37-M.Mack right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 9 — DEN 10
Q4 · 11:05DEN Touchdown
(11:05) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 9 — DEN 17
Q4 · 9:33DEN Touchdown
(9:33) 4-B.Rypien pass short right to 87-E.Tomlinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 9 — DEN 24
Q4 · 6:04ARI Touchdown
(6:04) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 15 — DEN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Broncos
Offensive plays	60	65
Total yards	240	326 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	30%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	7
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Brett RypienQB

21/26, 197 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.0 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Trace McSorleyQB

7/15, 95 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.5 expected points added · -20.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

24 att, 130 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

16 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

7/8 for 76 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

7/11 for 60 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	11	51	4:33	Field goal +3
2	ARI	ARI 25	5	4	1:27	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 31	8	20	4:30	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 12	5	15	2:05	Interception
5	DEN	ARI 24	4	4	1:53	Missed field goal
6	ARI	ARI 28	11	45	4:57	Field goal +3
7	DEN	DEN 25	5	-5	1:45	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 45	4	3	2:20	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 11	4	2	1:20	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 39	4	9	1:20	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 4	5	28	2:11	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 19	4	-1	0:30	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 25	4	26	0:31	Fumble
14	ARI	ARI 49	4	12	0:38	Field goal +3
15	ARI	ARI 25	12	48	6:05	Field goal +3
16	DEN	DEN 20	9	80	2:57	Touchdown +7
17	ARI	ARI 25	5	10	1:24	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 34	9	36	4:34	Interception
19	ARI	ARI 2	4	2	1:05	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 44	7	51	2:55	Touchdown +7
21	ARI	ARI 25	4	2	0:50	Interception
22	DEN	ARI 5	3	5	0:41	Touchdown +7
23	ARI	ARI 22	9	78	3:28	Touchdown +6
24	DEN	DEN 25	10	28	4:13	Punt
25	ARI	ARI 3	3	13	0:53	Interception
26	DEN	ARI 37	2	0	0:55	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trace McSorley	7/15	95	0	2	1	-9.5
Colt McCoy	13/21	78	0	1	2	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	16	63	3.9	1	-0.0
Trace McSorley	1	8	8.0	0	-0.3
Colt McCoy	2	2	1.0	0	-0.0
Keaontay Ingram	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	11	60	31%	-1.2
Trey McBride	4	5	55	14%	3.8
James Conner	3	5	28	14%	-1.0
Marquise Brown	4	8	19	23%	-6.4
Maxx Williams	2	2	11	6%	0.4
Robbie Chosen	0	2	0	6%	-2.3
A.J. Green	0	2	0	6%	-6.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jalen Thompson	2	6	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	4	3	0.0	0	0
Zaven Collins	1	6	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	4	2	0.0	1	2
Jonathan Ledbetter	2	4	1.0	0	0
Jace Whittaker	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Matthew	5	0	0.0	0	1
J.J. Watt	4	1	3.0	0	1
Markus Golden	3	2	1.0	0	0
Ben Niemann	1	2	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brett Rypien	21/26	197	1	1	7	-6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	24	130	5.4	1	2.0
Marlon Mack	5	37	7.4	1	2.1
Devine Ozigbo	2	2	1.0	0	-1.0
Andrew Beck	1	1	1.0	0	-0.3
Brett Rypien	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	7	8	76	0	31%	5.8
Brandon Johnson	3	4	30	0	15%	0.3
Eric Tomlinson	3	3	28	1	12%	3.2
Marlon Mack	4	4	26	0	15%	0.9
Latavius Murray	1	1	12	0	4%	0.3
Greg Dulcich	1	2	11	0	8%	0.4
Freddie Swain	1	1	9	0	4%	0.7
Eric Saubert	1	2	5	0	8%	-4.2
Andrew Beck	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	6	4	0.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	2	5	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	2	0.0	1	1
Kareem Jackson	4	1	0.0	0	0
DeShawn Williams	2	3	2.5	0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	2	0.0	0	0
Damarri Mathis	1	2	0.0	0	1
Mike Purcell	1	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	1	2	0.0	2	2
Jonathan Harris	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1.5
Closing total: 37.5
ARI moneyline: +110
DEN moneyline: -121

Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 39 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: ARI 6 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Nathaniel Hackett