2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -5 no coverU 43.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:13, ATL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:13ATL 18 — NO 21ATL ball · 4th & 5NO 79%

(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to NO 38 for 12 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by NO-21-B.Roby at NO 35. 21-B.Roby to NO 39 for 4 yards (5-D.London).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:13ATL +10% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to NO 38 for 12 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by NO-21-B.Roby at NO 35. 21-B.Roby to NO 39 for 4 yards (5-D.London).
Q3 · 10:51NO +10% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:17ATL +9% win prob(2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass incomplete short middle to 86-A.Firkser (6-M.Maye).
Q1 · 8:27NO +9% win prob(8:27) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 89-R.Shaheed for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 33, YAC 35

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:12NO Touchdown
(10:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 1 for 18 yards (24-A.Terrell; 27-R.Grant). New Orleans challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 4 (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — NO 7
Q1 · 8:27NO Touchdown
(8:27) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 89-R.Shaheed for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 33, YAC 35 (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — NO 14
Q2 · 11:19ATL Field goal
(11:19) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — NO 14
Q3 · 10:51ATL Touchdown
(10:51) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NO 14
Q3 · 3:39NO Touchdown
(3:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-54-R.Evans, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Pass 12, YAC 10 (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NO 21
Q4 · 7:12ATL Touchdown
(7:12) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: ATL 18 — NO 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Saints
Offensive plays	70	54
Total yards	322	349 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	46%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	0.57 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

11/17, 151 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · -5.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

13/26, 97 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -19.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

17 att, 139 yds, 1 TD

11.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

21 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

3/4 for 95 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

7/11 for 70 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	12	75	4:54	Touchdown +7
2	ATL	ATL 25	5	2	0:59	Punt
3	NO	NO 27	3	73	0:50	Touchdown +7
4	ATL	ATL 25	6	7	1:35	Punt
5	NO	NO 9	7	9	4:36	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 38	12	52	5:51	Field goal +3
7	NO	NO 25	8	60	3:51	Fumble
8	ATL	ATL 15	4	8	1:47	Punt
9	NO	NO 37	6	20	2:19	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 2	14	51	3:10	Punt
11	NO	NO 13	1	0	0:08	End of half
12	ATL	ATL 25	10	70	4:14	Touchdown +7
13	NO	NO 25	13	80	7:12	Touchdown +7
14	ATL	ATL 14	10	22	5:11	Punt
15	NO	NO 11	4	-7	2:16	Punt
16	ATL	NO 32	9	34	4:00	Touchdown +8
17	NO	NO 25	5	5	1:01	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 10	9	52	4:00	Fumble
19	NO	NO 39	7	34	1:57	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	ATL 27	2	24	0:09	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	13/26	97	0	0	4	-5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	17	139	8.2	1	11.5
Cordarrelle Patterson	14	52	3.7	1	0.5
Desmond Ridder	6	38	6.3	0	0.2
Caleb Huntley	1	2	2.0	0	-0.7
Feleipe Franks	1	0	0.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	7	11	70	42%	1.9
MyCole Pruitt	2	3	20	12%	-0.5
Avery Williams	2	2	10	8%	0.7
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	3	0	12%	-3.1
Olamide Zaccheaus	0	3	0	12%	-2.2
Damiere Byrd	0	1	0	4%	-0.8
Anthony Firkser	0	2	0	8%	-3.0
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	-3	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Rashaan Evans	4	5	1.0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	2	0.0	2
Richie Grant	5	1	0.0	0
Troy Andersen	4	2	0.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	2	3	0.5	0
Abdullah Anderson	2	3	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	4	0.5	0
Jaleel Johnson	2	0	0.0	0
Cornell Armstrong	1	1	0.0	0
KhaDarel Hodge	2	0	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	11/17	151	2	0	2	5.6
Taysom Hill	2/2	80	1	0	0	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	21	91	4.3	-2.8
Taysom Hill	7	30	4.3	-1.1
David Johnson	4	12	3.0	-5.7
Andy Dalton	2	1	0.5	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	3	4	95	1	21%	6.6
Juwan Johnson	4	6	67	2	32%	6.8
Chris Olave	3	4	53	0	21%	2.8
Alvin Kamara	2	2	13	0	11%	1.2
Adam Prentice	1	1	3	0	5%	0.9
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6
Jarvis Landry	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Carl Granderson	4	3	0.5	0
Shy Tuttle	5	2	0.0	0
Demario Davis	4	3	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	4	2	0.0	2
Tyrann Mathieu	6	0	1.0	2
Pete Werner	3	1	0.0	0
Alontae Taylor	4	0	0.0	3
Kentavius Street	2	1	1.5	0
Kaden Elliss	1	2	1.0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -5
Closing total: 43.5
ATL moneyline: +203
NO moneyline: -231

Saints closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 39 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: ATL 14 days · NO 13 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.