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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q4 2:13, 4th and 5, on Drake London — 10.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:13 · 4th and 5
Drake London
Saints
(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to NO 38 for 12 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by NO-21-B.Roby at NO 35. 21-B.Roby to NO 39 for 4 yards (5-D.London).
New Orleans Saints 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:13, Saints +10.5% win probability on one snap.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Saints at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to NO 38 for 12 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by NO-21-B.Roby at NO 35. 21-B.Roby to NO 39 for 4 yards (5-D.London).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Juwan Johnson's 19-yard touchdown catch with 10:12 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Juwan Johnson19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy DaltonLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Saints’s 54 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Saints 4.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-19.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 69 snaps
Saints-11.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Falcons48.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 52 early downs
Saints33.3%leaned — ran early · −16.7 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 65%
Tendencies room →Falcons37.1%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Saints23.8%leaned — faked the run · +10.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.9%.
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 14.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 58%
Tendencies room →Falcons9.5%leaned — sat back · −13.8 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Saints8.6%inside their normal wobble · −9.6 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 26%
Tendencies room →Falcons9.5%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Saints14.3%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NO's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 10.3 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.6 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
11/17, 151 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.6 expected points added · -5.2% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/26, 97 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.8 expected points added · -19.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Rashid Shaheed banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.7 | +11.1 | 51% | 62% | 32% | 35% | 4/6, 67 yd, 2 TD |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 22.6 | +10.3 | 49% | 34% | 4% | 0% | 17 car, 139 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Featured Receiver | 18.5 | +11.1 | 71% | 95% | 21% | 30% | 3/4, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | +6.1 | 85% | — | 0% | — | 11/17, 151 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.4 | −1.0 | 62% | 48% | 11% | 3% | 21 car, 91 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 12.2 | −1.5 | 50% | 51% | 12% | 16% | 14 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 1/3, 0 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.0 | −5.5 | 81% | 69% | 42% | 41% | 7/11, 70 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 10.2 | +5.8 | 44% | — | 0% | — | 2/2, 80 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 30 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | +0.6 | 49% | 86% | 21% | 28% | 3/4, 53 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 7.7 | −6.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/26, 97 yd · 6 car, 38 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.5 | 55% | 40% | 12% | 7% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 3.0 | +0.2 | 14% | 14% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 1.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Caleb HuntleyRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 31% | 37% | 8% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 57% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.2 | 81% | 74% | 12% | 27% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.8 | 41% | 46% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 65% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 35% | 67% | 5% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| David JohnsonRB | -0.8 | −2.8 | 33% | 48% | 0% | — | 4 car, 12 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder scrambles left end ran ob at NO 49 for 18 yards (27-A.Taylor).
Q4 0:05 · Falcons · 2nd & 4 at ATL 33 · gained 18 · -0.12 EP · −13.0% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Saints6Falcons0Saints7Falcons0Saints13Falcons0Saints14Falcons3Saints14Falcons9Saints14Falcons10Saints14Falcons10Saints20Falcons10Saints21Falcons16Saints21Falcons18Saints21How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 13/26 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 17 | 139 | 8.2 | 1 | +11.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 | 42% | +1.9 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Evans | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Richie Grant | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/17 | 151 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_ATL_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 39 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −3.1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −2.2 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −3.0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdullah Anderson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cornell Armstrong | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 95 | 1 | 21% | +6.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 6 | 67 | 2 | 32% | +6.8 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 21% | +2.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Jarvis Landry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Granderson | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kentavius Street | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
