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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 13, Ravens 3 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 8:22, 3rd and 10, on Denzel Ward — 13.6 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:22 · 3rd and 10
Denzel Ward
Browns
(8:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 15-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 9. 21-D.Ward to CLE 9 for no gain (15-D.Jackson).
15.1 mph wind
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Cleveland Browns 13–3. Biggest swing: Q3 8:22, Browns +13.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mark AndrewsRavensQ2 0:18(:18) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CLE 36 for 19 yards (22-G.Delpit).
9.7pts
Justin TuckerBrownsQ2 0:02(:02) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
9.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — -0.01 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns won this one — 1 touchdown on 5 trips, against Ravens at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens151 of 161 plays carry both curves
(8:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 15-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 9. 21-D.Ward to CLE 9 for no gain (15-D.Jackson).
Swing +13.6 for BrownsExpected points +4.04 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 95
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:22BAL +14% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 15-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 9. 21-D.Ward to CLE 9 for no gain (15-D.Jackson).
2nd · 0:18CLE +10% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CLE 36 for 19 yards (22-G.Delpit).
2nd · 0:02BAL +9% win prob(:02) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
1st · 6:58BAL +8% win prob(6:58) 42-P.Ricard right guard to CLE 7 for no gain (43-J.Johnson, 90-J.Clowney).
2nd · 12:44CLE +7% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 43-J.Hill to BAL 41 for 15 yards (69-C.Winovich).
3rd · 13:39CLE +7% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard pushed ob at CLE 40 for 25 yards (43-J.Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cade York's 23-yard field goal with 1:55 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd14:15Cade York·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+30–3
2nd5:36Justin Tucker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–3
2nd1:55Cade York·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+33–6
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Browns, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Ravens: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.03Browns: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.45Ravens: −0.45 expected points added per play
−0.01Browns: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Ravens: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.08Browns: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 61 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Browns’s 61 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 2, Browns 5.
NoteRavens outgained Browns 324-284 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's play-action rate, 37.5%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 13 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Browns14.3%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteCLE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 18.8% and 2.0 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Huntley pass−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 15-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 9. 21-D.Ward to CLE 9 for no gain (15-D.Jackson).
Q3 8:22 · Ravens · 3rd & 10 at CLE 15 · gained nothing · -4.04 EP · −15.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 91 yards from the CLE 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
44%
Yards
607
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1059%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2883%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR23+0.0430%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1146%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.3822%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter30 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 16
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Browns 7
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Ravens 32
2nd quarter52 plays
Ravens0Browns3
Field goal2 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Ravens 29
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 46
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 15
Ravens3Browns3
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Browns 33
Ravens3Browns6
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 4
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Browns 31
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 15
Ravens3Browns12
Ravens3Browns13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Ravens 3
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 46
4th quarter42 plays
No good4 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 31
No good8 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Ravens 20
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Ravens 46
No good12 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Ravens 18
The period ended5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -2.5
Closing total
39.5
Ravens moneyline
+139
Browns moneyline
-155
Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 16 — under by 23.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Ravens 6 days · Browns 6 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 15.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
3rd · 5:56
CLE +6% win prob
(5:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to BAL 18 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams).
4th · 14:08BAL +6% win prob(14:08) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Elliott), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout, recovered by BAL-9-J.Tucker at BAL 48.
