2022 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 17, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -2.5 ✓U 39.5 ✓Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Cleveland Browns 13–3. Biggest swing: Q3 8:22, BAL +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 8:22BAL 3 — CLE 6BAL ball · 3rd & 10CLE 54%

(8:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 15-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 9. 21-D.Ward to CLE 9 for no gain (15-D.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 8:22BAL +14% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 15-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 9. 21-D.Ward to CLE 9 for no gain (15-D.Jackson).
Q2 · 0:18CLE +10% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at CLE 36 for 19 yards (22-G.Delpit).
Q2 · 0:02BAL +9% win prob(:02) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q1 · 6:58BAL +8% win prob(6:58) 42-P.Ricard right guard to CLE 7 for no gain (43-J.Johnson, 90-J.Clowney).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:15CLE Field goal
(14:15) 3-C.York 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — CLE 3
Q2 · 5:36BAL Field goal
(5:36) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 3
Q2 · 1:55CLE Field goal
(1:55) 3-C.York 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 6
Q3 · 2:14CLE Touchdown
(2:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Browns
Offensive plays	61	61
Total yards	324 (edge)	284
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	48%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	0.08
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Browns 324–284 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

18/28, 161 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.8 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

17/30, 138 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.7 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

J.K. DobbinsRB

13 att, 125 yds, 0 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

21 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

4/6 for 58 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

3/7 for 31 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 11	5	4	1:43	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 22	10	59	6:25	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 7	14	64	7:42	Field goal +3
4	BAL	BAL 18	9	28	3:03	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 13	4	2	1:10	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 38	9	29	4:26	Field goal +3
7	CLE	CLE 25	12	71	3:39	Field goal +3
8	BAL	BAL 20	11	54	1:52	Missed field goal
9	BAL	BAL 25	12	60	6:42	Interception
10	CLE	CLE 9	13	76	6:08	Touchdown +7
11	BAL	BAL 25	2	14	0:06	Fumble
12	CLE	BAL 40	4	3	1:21	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 9	6	60	1:41	Missed field goal
14	CLE	BAL 48	7	28	3:13	Missed field goal
15	BAL	BAL 28	6	23	1:19	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	BAL 46	10	19	5:06	Missed field goal
17	BAL	BAL 36	4	-3	1:18	Turnover on downs
18	CLE	BAL 33	5	17	3:06	End of game

4 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	17/30	138	0	1	3	-11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	13	125	9.6	7.0
Gus Edwards	7	55	7.9	1.9
Tyler Huntley	6	15	2.5	-1.6
Justice Hill	1	3	3.0	0.1
Patrick Ricard	1	0	0.0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	3	7	31	25%	-2.2
Devin Duvernay	2	3	29	11%	1.7
Demarcus Robinson	6	6	29	21%	-4.6
Isaiah Likely	2	3	18	11%	0.8
Justice Hill	1	1	15	4%	2.6
Josh Oliver	2	2	13	7%	0.2
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	3	4%	-0.1
James Proche	0	2	0	7%	-4.5
DeSean Jackson	0	3	0	11%	-6.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	4	5	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	6	2	1.0	1
Marcus Williams	4	2	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	5	0	0.0	1
Broderick Washington	1	3	0.0	0
Patrick Queen	1	3	0.5	0
Chuck Clark	2	2	0.0	0
Malik Harrison	3	0	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	1	2	0.0	0
Marcus Peters	2	1	0.0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	18/28	161	1	0	3	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	21	99	4.7	1.9
Kareem Hunt	4	24	6.0	0.0
Deshaun Watson	6	22	3.7	-1.1
Jacoby Brissett	1	3	3.0	2.0
Mike Woods	1	-5	-5.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	4	6	58	0	23%	2.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones	4	4	31	1	15%	3.1
David Njoku	3	6	28	0	23%	-0.1
Daylen Baldwin	2	2	25	0	8%	1.8
Harrison Bryant	2	2	7	0	8%	-0.6
Demetric Felton	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Mike Woods	1	2	4	0	8%	-1.1
Kareem Hunt	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.7
Nick Chubb	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Grant Delpit	8	1	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	7	1	0.0	0	1
Ronnie Harrison	3	2	0.0	0	1
Tony Fields	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Kunaszyk	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tae Davis	2	1	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	2	1	0.0	1	2
Myles Garrett	2	1	1.5	0	0
Greg Newsome	2	1	0.0	0	1
Deion Jones	2	1	1.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 39.5
BAL moneyline: +139
CLE moneyline: -155

Browns closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 16 — under by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BAL 6 days · CLE 6 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.