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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q3 5:06, 3rd and 10, on Tom Brady — 16.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:06 · 3rd and 10
Tom Brady
Bengals
(5:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 12 for -9 yards (55-L.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson) [55-L.Wilson], RECOVERED by CIN-58-J.Ossai at TB 13. Fumble Forced by CIN-98-D.Reader.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–23. Biggest swing: Q3 5:06, Bengals +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 4 chunk plays, against Bengals at 1 chunk play.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(5:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 12 for -9 yards (55-L.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson) [55-L.Wilson], RECOVERED by CIN-58-J.Ossai at TB 13. Fumble Forced by CIN-98-D.Reader.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Boyd's 3-yard touchdown catch with 2:44 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Tyler Boyd3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrow · two-point goodLead never changed again+820–1710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 61 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 71 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Buccaneers 4.
Buccaneers outgained Bengals 396-241 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's play-action rate turned over: 8.9% in week 14 against 26.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 28 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals12.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 59 snaps
Buccaneers7.2 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 98%
Tendencies room →Bengals63.0%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 46 early downs
Buccaneers60.0%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bengals14.6%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Buccaneers26.1%leaned — faked the run · +13.0 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Bengals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −23.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±17.5 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers50.0%right on their number · +8.0 vs their 42.0%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →Bengals10.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers43.9%leaned — sent pressure · +11.0 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Bengals14.9%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
TB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 26.1%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 13.1% and 1.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
30/44, 312 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
4.5 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
27/39, 200 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
2.9 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mitchell Wilcox banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell GageWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.9 | −0.3 | 62% | 66% | 29% | 22% | 8/12, 59 yd, 2 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 24.8 | +0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 200 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 8 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 22.3 | +5.7 | 89% | 87% | 19% | 18% | 8/8, 83 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | −3.1 | 91% | 98% | 34% | 54% | 7/13, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 16.6 | −11.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/44, 312 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Featured Receiver | 16.3 | +0.8 | 80% | 93% | 21% | 30% | 5/8, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +4.1 | 61% | 77% | 13% | 13% | 5/5, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 13.3 | −3.1 | 81% | 89% | 21% | 38% | 5/9, 83 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +7.3 | 91% | 86% | 8% | 8% | 3/3, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Committee Back | 11.4 | −0.7 | 58% | 62% | 10% | 2% | 10 car, 44 yd · 4/4, 30 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −8.7 | 64% | 59% | 16% | 0% | 11 car, 21 yd · 5/6, 33 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 5.3 | −3.1 | 39% | 34% | 5% | 0% | 11 car, 38 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −3.3 | 39% | 45% | 12% | 17% | 2/5, 25 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 3.4 | −1.9 | 38% | 36% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 24 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.5 | 65% | 57% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.5 | 18% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −3.3 | 24% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Stanley MorganWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Chris EvansRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Giovani BernardRB | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:31) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 33, RECOVERED by CIN-98-D.Reader at TB 39.
Q3 1:31 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 38 · gained nothing · -5.47 EP · −17.0% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bengals0
Buccaneers3Bengals0Buccaneers9Bengals0Buccaneers10Bengals0Buccaneers16Bengals0Buccaneers17Bengals3Buccaneers17Bengals6Buccaneers17Bengals12Buccaneers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Bengals18Buccaneers17Bengals20Buccaneers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bengals26Buccaneers17Bengals27Buccaneers17Bengals33Buccaneers17Bengals34Buccaneers17Bengals34Buccaneers23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 27/39 | 200 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 13 | 60 | 1 | 34% | −4.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 13% | +3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 9 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dax Hill | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/44 | 312 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_CIN_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 47; the game landed 57 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
| Mitchell Wilcox | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 8% | +4.7 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 16% | +0.6 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 21% | +1.9 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Eli Apple | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Stanley Morgan | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Tupou | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Sample | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 44 |
| 4.4 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −7.4 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 8 | 8 | 83 | 1 | 19% | +6.3 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 83 | 0 | 21% | +4.0 |
| Russell Gage | 8 | 12 | 59 | 2 | 29% | +6.1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 12% | −8.0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 2% | +1.3 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | −0.1 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carlton Davis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Delaney | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
