2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CIN -3.5 ✓O 47 ✓Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Cincinnati Bengals 34–23. Biggest swing: Q3 5:06, CIN +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:06CIN 12 — TB 17TB ball · 3rd & 10TB 57%

(5:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 12 for -9 yards (55-L.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson) [55-L.Wilson], RECOVERED by CIN-58-J.Ossai at TB 13. Fumble Forced by CIN-98-D.Reader.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:06CIN +17% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 12 for -9 yards (55-L.Wilson). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson) [55-L.Wilson], RECOVERED by CIN-58-J.Ossai at TB 13. Fumble Forced by CIN-98-D.Reader.
Q3 · 1:31CIN +14% win prob(1:31) 12-T.Brady FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 33, RECOVERED by CIN-98-D.Reader at TB 39.
Q1 · 12:32CIN +12% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis (22-K.Neal) at TB 30. 24-C.Davis to TB 30 for no gain (1-J.Chase).
Q3 · 13:34CIN +11% win prob(13:34) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-G.Bernard. 25-G.Bernard FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 20, and recovers at TB 18. 25-G.Bernard to TB 16 for -2 yards (51-M.Bailey).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:10TB Field goal
(6:10) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: CIN 0 — TB 3
Q2 · 14:17TB Touchdown
(14:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — TB 10
Q2 · 1:43TB Touchdown
(1:43) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — TB 17
Q2 · 0:03CIN Field goal
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TB 17
Q3 · 12:08CIN Field goal
(12:08) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 6 — TB 17
Q3 · 5:47CIN Touchdown
(5:47) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 12 — TB 17
Q3 · 2:44CIN Touchdown
(2:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CIN 20 — TB 17
Q4 · 12:49CIN Touchdown
(12:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 27 — TB 17
Q4 · 2:27CIN Touchdown
(2:27) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 84-M.Wilcox for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 34 — TB 17
Q4 · 0:52TB Touchdown
(:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 17-R.Gage for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 34 — TB 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	61	71
Total yards	241	396 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	70%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.42
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Buccaneers outgained Bengals 396–241 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

30/44, 312 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

4.5 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

27/39, 200 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

10 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

11 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

8/8 for 83 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

5/9 for 83 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	6	35	2:34	Interception
2	TB	TB 30	13	67	6:20	Field goal +3
3	CIN	CIN 25	5	0	2:08	Punt
4	TB	TB 41	12	72	4:47	Touchdown +7
5	CIN	CIN 22	5	-6	1:44	Punt
6	TB	TB 36	8	37	4:29	Missed field goal
7	CIN	CIN 40	4	7	1:28	Punt
8	TB	TB 15	11	85	4:51	Touchdown +7
9	CIN	CIN 30	8	47	1:39	Field goal +3
10	TB	TB 17	5	9	1:29	Turnover on downs
11	CIN	TB 16	5	13	1:27	Field goal +3
12	TB	TB 8	6	26	2:28	Interception
13	CIN	TB 31	8	26	3:54	Touchdown +6
14	TB	TB 21	4	-8	0:46	Fumble
15	CIN	TB 13	6	15	2:16	Touchdown +8
16	TB	TB 25	4	13	1:22	Fumble
17	CIN	TB 39	9	39	3:33	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 25	4	11	0:59	Interception
19	CIN	CIN 47	4	5	0:56	Punt
20	TB	TB 2	4	9	1:32	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 38	14	60	6:57	Touchdown +7
22	TB	TB 25	11	75	1:32	Touchdown +6
23	CIN	TB 47	3	0	0:49	End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	27/39	200	4	1	2	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Samaje Perine	7	24	3.4	0.1
Joe Mixon	11	21	1.9	-4.3
Joe Burrow	3	8	2.7	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	7	13	60	1	34%	-4.2
Tyler Boyd	5	5	35	1	13%	3.3
Mitchell Wilcox	3	3	34	1	8%	4.7
Joe Mixon	5	6	33	0	16%	0.6
Tee Higgins	5	8	33	1	21%	1.9
Trenton Irwin	1	2	5	0	5%	0.2
Samaje Perine	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	9	6	1.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	2	7	0.0	1	2
Dax Hill	5	3	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	2	5	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	3	2	0.0	0	2
Stanley Morgan	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	2	1	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	1	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Tupou	1	2	0.0	0	0
Cam Sample	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	30/44	312	3	2	1	4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	10	44	4.4	0.6
Rachaad White	11	38	3.5	-1.7
Deven Thompkins	1	9	9.0	0.7
Tom Brady	2	1	0.5	-7.4
Giovani Bernard	1	0	0.0	-4.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	8	8	83	1	19%	6.3
Mike Evans	5	9	83	0	21%	4.0
Russell Gage	8	12	59	2	29%	6.1
Leonard Fournette	4	4	30	0	10%	1.9
Cameron Brate	2	5	25	0	12%	-8.0
Cade Otton	1	1	20	0	2%	1.3
Deven Thompkins	1	1	7	0	2%	-0.1
Rachaad White	1	2	5	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	4	3	1.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	3	2	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	2	3	0.0	0	1
Carlton Davis	4	0	0.0	1	4
Anthony Nelson	2	2	0.5	0	0
Joe Tryon	1	3	0.5	0	1
William Gholston	2	2	0.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	1	3	0.0	0	1
Dee Delaney	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	1	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 47
CIN moneyline: -167
TB moneyline: +150

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 47; the game landed 57 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CIN 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Todd Bowles