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2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas34
BY 6final margin
JaguarsJacksonville40
Dallas Cowboys 34 at Jacksonville Jaguars 40. Final.
Cowboys -4 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars 40, Cowboys 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 7:04, 3rd and 4, on Rayshawn Jenkins — 52.1 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 7:04 · 3rd and 4
Rayshawn Jenkins
Jaguars
(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 48.5 ✓
Cowboys closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 40–34. Biggest swing: OT 7:04, Jaguars +52.1% win probability on one snap.
52.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trevor LawrenceCowboysQ4 1:38(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to DAL 39 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse). FUMBLES (27-J.Kearse), RECOVERED by DAL-11-M.Parsons at DAL 38. 11-M.Parsons to DAL 38 for no gain (16-T.Lawrence).
24.3pts
Riley PattersonJaguarsQ4 0:05(:05) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
30.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 8 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Cowboys at 9 of 16 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jaguars at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Cowboys183 of 196 plays carry both curves
(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +52.1 for JaguarsExpected points +8.56 for JaguarsModel and market agree here.play 195
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 7:04DAL +52% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:05JAX +31% win prob(:05) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4th · 1:38DAL +24% win prob(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to DAL 39 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse). FUMBLES (27-J.Kearse), RECOVERED by DAL-11-M.Parsons at DAL 38. 11-M.Parsons to DAL 38 for no gain (16-T.Lawrence).
Overtime · 8:56JAX +21% win prob(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
4th · 3:07JAX +21% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 85-N.Brown for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:07JAX +14% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rayshawn Jenkins's 52-yard touchdown with 7:04 left in overtime put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jaguars ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Cowboys: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.12Jaguars: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Cowboys: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.15Jaguars: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Cowboys: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.05Jaguars: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 74 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 70 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Jaguars 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's play-action rate, 8.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 62.3% in week 14 against 39.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jaguars23.5%
inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteJAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.9%, 11.7 points below their season mean of 20.6% and 1.2 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Prescott pass−52% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 7:04 · Cowboys · 3rd & 4 at DAL 47 · gained nothing · -8.56 EP · −52.1% win probability
181 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 196 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 86 yards from the DAL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
51%
Yards
900
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.2470%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0446%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1242%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.6630%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jaguars 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 43
Cowboys6Jaguars0
Cowboys7Jaguars0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 10
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Jaguars 47
2nd quarter50 plays
Cowboys13Jaguars0
Cowboys14Jaguars0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jaguars 20
Cowboys14Jaguars6
Cowboys14Jaguars7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Cowboys 5
Cowboys20Jaguars7
Cowboys21Jaguars7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Jaguars 1
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 35
3rd quarter46 plays
Cowboys21Jaguars10
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Cowboys 14
Cowboys24Jaguars10
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jaguars 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
Cowboys27Jaguars10
Field goal4 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Jaguars 35
Cowboys27Jaguars16
Cowboys27Jaguars17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Intercepted3 plays
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys27Jaguars23
Cowboys27Jaguars24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 24
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Cowboys27Jaguars30
Cowboys27Jaguars31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Cowboys 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Cowboys33Jaguars31
Cowboys34Jaguars31
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Jaguars 13
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to midfield
Punt6 plays
Cowboys34Jaguars34
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Cowboys 30
Overtime11 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys34Jaguars40
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
