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2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

34

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

40

DAL -4 upsetO 48.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 40–34. Biggest swing: OT 7:04, DAL +52% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4JAX ↑DAL ↓
OT · 7:04DAL 34 — JAX 40DAL ball · 3rd & 4DAL 52%

(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 7:04DAL +52% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:05JAX +31% win prob(:05) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
  3. Q4 · 1:38DAL +24% win prob(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end to DAL 39 for 11 yards (27-J.Kearse). FUMBLES (27-J.Kearse), RECOVERED by DAL-11-M.Parsons at DAL 38. 11-M.Parsons to DAL 38 for no gain (16-T.Lawrence).
  4. OT · 8:56JAX +21% win prob(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:39DAL Touchdown

    (4:39) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 13:08DAL Touchdown

    (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 89-P.Hendershot for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 7:49JAX Touchdown

    (7:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 14 — JAX 7
  4. Q2 · 2:00DAL Touchdown

    (2:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 85-N.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 21 — JAX 7
  5. Q3 · 10:40JAX Field goal

    (10:40) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: DAL 21 — JAX 10
  6. Q3 · 7:39DAL Field goal

    (7:39) 19-B.Maher 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — JAX 10
  7. Q3 · 5:26DAL Field goal

    (5:26) 19-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — JAX 10
  8. Q3 · 4:07JAX Touchdown

    (4:07) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-7-T.Diggs, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — JAX 17
  9. Q3 · 1:28JAX Touchdown

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — JAX 24
  10. Q4 · 10:07JAX Touchdown

    (10:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Z.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-74-C.Robinson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — JAX 31
  11. Q4 · 3:07DAL Touchdown

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 85-N.Brown for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 34 — JAX 31
  12. Q4 · 0:05JAX Field goal

    (:05) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: DAL 34 — JAX 34
  13. OT · 7:04JAX Touchdown

    (7:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 85-N.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-R.Jenkins at JAX 48. 2-R.Jenkins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DAL 34 — JAX 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysJaguars
Offensive plays7470
Total yards397503 (edge)
Yards per play5.47.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.050.12 (edge)
Success rate55%57% (edge)
Dropback rate46%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.010.05 (edge)
Third downs9/168/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)811 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2327 (edge)
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

27/42, 318 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

10.7 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

23/30, 256 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

4.0 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

19 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

19 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

7/7 for 126 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Zay JonesWR

6/8 for 109 yds, 3 TD

20% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 2510344:23Punt
2JAXJAX 97323:12Fumble
3DALJAX 417412:54Touchdown +7
4JAXJAX 25531:40Punt
5DALDAL 1411694:50Touchdown +7
6JAXJAX 2511755:16Touchdown +7
7DALDAL 3413665:50Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 25560:24Punt
9DALDAL 235130:50Punt
10JAXJAX 145360:41End of half
11JAXJAX 2511614:25Field goal +3
12DALDAL 259692:59Field goal +3
13JAXJAX 255121:09Interception
14DALJAX 42471:06Field goal +3
15JAXJAX 255751:24Touchdown +7
16DALDAL 163-81:04Interception
17JAXDAL 395391:30Touchdown +7
18DALDAL 19542:06Punt
19JAXJAX 259754:14Touchdown +7
20DALDAL 2515757:01Touchdown +7
21JAXJAX 257361:34Fumble
22DALDAL 38400:27Punt
23JAXJAX 297411:01Field goal +3
24JAXJAX 255121:12Punt
25DALDAL 204271:56Defensive touchdown

12 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott23/302563234.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard19753.900.1
Ezekiel Elliott16583.61-1.5
Dak Prescott5204.001.3
CeeDee Lamb111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb77126023%10.5
Noah Brown6949230%-3.9
Tony Pollard4531017%0.7
Peyton Hendershot112013%3.0
Dalton Schultz2415013%-1.6
Ezekiel Elliott221307%1.1
Michael Gallup12207%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Damone Clark440.000
Anthony Barr610.000
Trevon Diggs520.000
Jayron Kearse510.001
Daron Bland420.012
Malik Hooker320.000
Nahshon Wright310.000
Carlos Watkins210.000
Donovan Wilson300.000
Micah Parsons111.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence27/4231841110.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne191035.40-3.1
Jamal Agnew35217.303.0
Trevor Lawrence3217.00-3.4
Jamycal Hasty11313.000.9
Snoop Conner133.00-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Jones68109320%9.9
Christian Kirk61092024%-1.3
Evan Engram81062024%2.2
Travis Etienne232407%1.0
Marvin Jones2617115%2.0
Jamal Agnew231207%-0.8
Jamycal Hasty11202%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Rayshawn Jenkins990.022
Foyesade Oluokun840.000
Devin Lloyd720.000
Andre Cisco320.000
Tyson Campbell410.000
Roy Robertson-Harris400.000
Tre Herndon400.000
Dawuane Smoot210.001
Arden Key121.500
Josh Hines-Allen211.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -4
Closing total
48.5
DAL moneyline
-188
JAX moneyline
+168

Cowboys closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 74 — over by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
DAL 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Doug Pederson