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2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

20

New York Jets

17

NYJ -2 upsetU 44 ✓

Detroit Lions 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, NYJ +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑DET ↓
Q4 · 2:00DET 19 — NYJ 17DET ball · 4th & 1NYJ 81%

(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:00NYJ +45% win prob(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:01DET +26% win prob(:01) 6-G.Zuerlein 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
  3. Q3 · 13:27DET +21% win prob(13:27) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 39-J.Jacobs at DET 47. 39-J.Jacobs pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 38 yards (71-D.Brown).
  4. Q4 · 0:14NYJ +18% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 8-E.Moore to DET 40 for 20 yards (31-K.Joseph).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:13DET Touchdown

    (6:13) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-K.Raymond for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — NYJ 0
  2. Q2 · 14:16NYJ Touchdown

    (14:16) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 87-C.Uzomah for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — NYJ 7
  3. Q2 · 7:09DET Field goal

    (7:09) 17-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 10 — NYJ 7
  4. Q2 · 0:03NYJ Field goal

    (:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: DET 10 — NYJ 10
  5. Q3 · 11:58DET Field goal

    (11:58) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 13 — NYJ 10
  6. Q4 · 4:45NYJ Touchdown

    (4:45) 67-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 13 — NYJ 17
  7. Q4 · 2:00DET Touchdown

    (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 20 — NYJ 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsJets
Offensive plays6661
Total yards359 (edge)337
Yards per play5.45.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.07
Success rate41% (edge)39%
Dropback rate58%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.31 (edge)0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.34-0.20 (edge)
Third downs5/157/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1717
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

18/35, 317 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.7 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/38, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.7 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

8 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

13 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-8.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

4/9 for 98 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Jeff SmithWR

4/5 for 77 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 2515738:05Turnover on downs
2NYJNYJ 24-10:55Defensive touchdown
3NYJNYJ 208144:01Punt
4DETDET 206151:44Punt
5NYJNYJ 224781:09Touchdown +7
6DETDET 2516827:00Field goal +3
7NYJNYJ 2312376:03Punt
8DETDET 205200:38Punt
9NYJNYJ 195650:25Field goal +3
10NYJNYJ 245121:43Interception
11DETNYJ 154-11:22Field goal +3
12NYJNYJ 255112:35Punt
13DETDET 346172:05Punt
14NYJNYJ 2010254:38Punt
15DETDET 206202:46Punt
16NYJNYJ 31450:58Punt
17DETDET 910556:00Missed field goal
18NYJNYJ 448563:12Touchdown +7
19DETDET 229782:52Touchdown +7
20NYJNYJ 2511351:49Missed field goal

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/3825210011.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift8526.501.5
Jamaal Williams13332.50-8.1
Justin Jackson6162.70-3.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown71076028%7.0
Kalif Raymond5653017%3.6
Brock Wright125116%6.0
D'Andre Swift5923025%-2.8
D.J. Chark121806%0.3
Justin Jackson121506%-0.4
James Mitchell221206%0.5
Shane Zylstra11403%-0.3
Jameson Williams01003%-0.5
Jason Cabinda01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeff Okudah420.002
Alim McNeill140.000
Kerby Joseph320.000
Isaiah Buggs130.000
Will Harris310.000
Aidan Hutchinson310.000
Romeo Okwara222.000
Alex Anzalone130.000
DeShon Elliott310.000
James Houston211.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Zach Wilson18/353172140.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zonovan Knight13231.80-5.9
Michael Carter4153.800.5
Zach Wilson372.30-0.7
Elijah Moore133.000.8
Tyler Conklin122.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson4998026%3.1
Jeff Smith4577015%2.6
Elijah Moore4751021%-6.6
C.J. Uzomah224126%4.8
Michael Carter111603%2.6
Braxton Berrios1614018%-0.9
Denzel Mims121306%0.3
Tyler Conklin12706%0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Will Parks450.000
Jordan Whitehead330.000
Quincy Williams320.000
Michael Carter320.000
Kwon Alexander410.000
C.J. Mosley130.000
Ahmad Gardner210.000
Jermaine Johnson120.000
Carl Lawson300.000
Tony Adams200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -2
Closing total
44
DET moneyline
+120
NYJ moneyline
-132

Jets closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 37 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
38°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
DET 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Robert Saleh