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Detroit Lions 20, Jets 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 1, on Brock Wright — 45.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 1
Brock Wright
Lions
(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jets closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Lions +45.5% win probability on one snap.
45.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jerry JacobsLionsQ3 13:27(13:27) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 39-J.Jacobs at DET 47. 39-J.Jacobs pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 38 yards (71-D.Brown).
20.7pts
Greg ZuerleinLionsQ4 0:01(:01) 6-G.Zuerlein 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
26.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Lions at 3 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Lions at 5 of 15 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Jets at +0.00 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Lions162 of 172 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −45.5 for JetsExpected points −6.48 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00NYJ +45% win prob(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:01DET +26% win prob(:01) 6-G.Zuerlein 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
3rd · 13:27DET +21% win prob(13:27) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 39-J.Jacobs at DET 47. 39-J.Jacobs pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 38 yards (71-D.Brown).
4th · 0:14NYJ +18% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 8-E.Moore to DET 40 for 20 yards (31-K.Joseph).
4th · 7:15NYJ +18% win prob(7:15) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 17-G.Wilson to DET 21 for 33 yards (25-W.Harris). Penalty on DET-25-W.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 7:57DET +18% win prob(7:57) 17-M.Badgley 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brock Wright's 51-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:13Kalif Raymond·47-yd return TD47-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–0
4th2:00Brock Wright·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+720–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryJets
Lions4–4Jets
359Total yards337
5.4Yards per play5.5
41%Success rate39%
33%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays7
17First downs17
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jets, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.07Jets: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Lions: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.00Jets: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Lions: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 66 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Jets 3.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, is past their previous high of 20.4% in week 11 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +10.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets13.2%
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteDET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 15.8%, 11.9 points below their season mean of 27.7% and 1.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%68 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%68 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time84%57 snaps
4D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational47%32 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Rotational40%27 snaps
84Shane ZylstraTE · Rotational37%25 snaps
42Justin JacksonRB · Rotational32%22 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational31%21 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational29%20 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Situational24%16 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Situational19%13 snaps
45Jason CabindaFB · Situational15%10 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational4%3 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCMichael BrockersDEDerrick BarnesILBAustin BryantOLBJoshua DobbsQBCraig ReynoldsRBKayode AwosikaT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+47% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:00 · Lions · 4th & 1 at DET 49 · gained 51 · +6.48 EP · +47.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 78 yards from the NYJ 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
36%
Yards
696
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0578%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2567%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2021%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.2667%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0450%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.2120%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jets 1
Lions6Jets0
Touchdown4 plays
Lions7Jets0
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Lions 48
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Lions7Jets6
Lions7Jets7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Lions 40
Lions10Jets7
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jets 11
Punt12 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Lions 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Lions10Jets10
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Lions 16
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 36
Lions13Jets10
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Jets 49
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 32
4th quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 36
No good12 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Jets 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Lions13Jets16
Lions13Jets17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Lions19Jets17
Lions20Jets17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 49
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.9 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Lions 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
