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2022 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 17, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

36

Minnesota VikingsWinner

39

MIN -3.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 39–36 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:49, MIN +49% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4MIN ↑IND ↓
OT · 1:49IND 36 — MIN 36IND ball · 4th & 9MIN 82%

(1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 1:49MIN +49% win prob(1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
  2. OT · 0:20MIN +40% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to IND 27 for 13 yards (59-I.Odenigbo). PENALTY on IND-59-I.Odenigbo, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 27.
  3. OT · 0:48MIN +22% win prob(:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to IND 40 for 21 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
  4. OT · 4:58MIN +20% win prob(4:58) 14-R.Wright punts 26 yards to IND 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:15IND Field goal

    (9:15) 7-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — MIN 0
  2. Q1 · 8:20IND Touchdown

    (8:20) 14-R.Wright punt is BLOCKED by 59-I.Odenigbo, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by IND-57-J.Domann at MIN 24. 57-J.Domann for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — MIN 0
  3. Q1 · 3:55IND Touchdown

    (3:55) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 35-D.Jackson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — MIN 0
  4. Q2 · 13:11IND Field goal

    (13:11) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — MIN 0
  5. Q2 · 10:46IND Field goal

    (10:46) 7-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 23 — MIN 0
  6. Q2 · 5:57IND Touchdown

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-J.Reagor INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at MIN 17. 32-J.Blackmon for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 30 — MIN 0
  7. Q2 · 0:12IND Field goal

    (:12) 7-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 33 — MIN 0
  8. Q3 · 8:26MIN Touchdown

    (8:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 33 — MIN 7
  9. Q3 · 4:59IND Field goal

    (4:59) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: IND 36 — MIN 7
  10. Q3 · 1:19MIN Touchdown

    (1:19) 30-C.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-75-B.O'Neill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 36 — MIN 14
  11. Q4 · 12:59MIN Touchdown

    (12:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 36 — MIN 21
  12. Q4 · 5:34MIN Touchdown

    (5:34) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 36 — MIN 28
  13. Q4 · 2:28MIN Touchdown

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-D.Cook for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: IND 36 — MIN 36
  14. OT · 0:07MIN Field goal

    (:07) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: IND 36 — MIN 39

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsVikings
Offensive plays7886
Total yards342521 (edge)
Yards per play4.46.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.18-0.13 (edge)
Success rate41%44% (edge)
Dropback rate47%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.28 (edge)-0.52
Third downs6/195/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1927 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)7
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

34/54, 460 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

6.2 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

19/33, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.2 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

17 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

-9.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

24 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-7.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

K.J. OsbornWR

10/16 for 157 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

12/16 for 123 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 4812445:49Field goal +3
2MINMIN 25540:59Defensive touchdown
3MINMIN 253440:52Fumble
4INDIND 348663:29Touchdown +7
5MINMIN 22542:41Turnover on downs
6INDMIN 316213:03Field goal +3
7MINMIN 22592:06Turnover on downs
8INDMIN 31400:20Field goal +3
9MINMIN 23521:43Punt
10INDIND 277132:29Punt
11MINMIN 5390:39Defensive touchdown
12MINMIN 257111:50Punt
13INDIND 269653:52Field goal +3
14MINMIN 27200:08End of half
15MINMIN 235-81:03Punt
16INDIND 345142:41Punt
17MINMIN 128732:54Touchdown +7
18INDIND 407263:29Field goal +3
19MINMIN 2510753:40Touchdown +7
20INDIND 33531:06Punt
21MINMIN 397462:14Touchdown +7
22INDIND 176152:27Punt
23MINMIN 138312:24Interception
24INDIND 2420:56Punt
25MIN506371:36Touchdown +7
26INDIND 255142:05Fumble
27MINMIN 467150:33Turnover on downs
28INDIND 445200:24Turnover on downs
29MINMIN 362660:13Touchdown +8
30INDIND 25591:05Punt
31MINMIN 26490:57Punt
32INDIND 2100:13Turnover on downs
33MINMIN 1710395:10Punt
34INDIND 139303:09Punt
35MINMIN 186551:38Field goal +3

12 of 35 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matt Ryan19/33182103-2.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss24813.40-7.5
Deon Jackson13554.20-3.8
Michael Pittman23015.002.0
Ashton Dulin155.000.6
Matt Ryan300.00-3.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman101460045%-1.7
Jelani Woods113603%2.6
Kylen Granson223406%1.5
Ashton Dulin222506%2.4
Jonathan Taylor111303%1.7
Parris Campbell2313010%1.5
Deon Jackson11113%0.6
Zack Moss01003%-1.1
Alec Pierce050016%-4.9
Mo Alie-Cox01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Okereke660.001
Zaire Franklin540.000
Rodney McLeod430.001
Stephon Gilmore610.003
Isaiah Rodgers330.001
Kwity Paye511.000
Dayo Odeyingbo412.000
Julian Blackmon220.011
Rodney Thomas130.011
E.J. Speed210.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins34/544604276.2
Ryan Wright0/10000-3.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dalvin Cook17955.60-9.2
C.J. Ham210.51-1.4
Alexander Mattison210.50-1.3
Kirk Cousins200.00-2.0
Jalen Reagor1-5-5.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
K.J. Osborn1016157130%8.6
Justin Jefferson1216123130%8.7
Dalvin Cook449517%7.4
Adam Thielen344117%2.6
T.J. Hockenson3933017%-1.9
Johnny Mundt11702%0.3
C.J. Ham11402%0.9
Jalen Nailor01002%-3.8
Jalen Reagor02004%-9.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Harrison Phillips470.000
Eric Kendricks451.000
Camryn Bynum430.000
Jordan Hicks240.000
Khyiris Tonga330.000
Brian Asamoah240.000
Danielle Hunter231.500
Za'Darius Smith320.500
Chandon Sullivan410.000
Patrick Peterson310.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Closing total
46.5
IND moneyline
+168
MIN moneyline
-188

Vikings closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 75 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
IND 13 days · MIN 6 days
Coaches
Jeff Saturday vs Kevin O'Connell