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2022 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 17, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis36
BY 3final margin
VikingsMinnesota39
Indianapolis Colts 36 at Minnesota Vikings 39. Final.
Vikings -3.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 15
Minnesota Vikings 39, Colts 36 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 1:49, 4th and 9 — 48.5 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:49 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
(1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
Dome
Vikings closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 39–36 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:49, Colts +48.5% win probability on one snap.
48.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenVikingsOT 0:48(:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to IND 40 for 21 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
21.7pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsOT 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to IND 27 for 13 yards (59-I.Odenigbo). PENALTY on IND-59-I.Odenigbo, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 27.
39.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — -0.28 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Colts221 of 240 plays carry both curves
(1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
Swing −48.5 for VikingsExpected points +0.79 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 230
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:49MIN +49% win prob(1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
Overtime · 0:20MIN +40% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to IND 27 for 13 yards (59-I.Odenigbo). PENALTY on IND-59-I.Odenigbo, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 27.
Overtime · 0:48MIN +22% win prob(:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to IND 40 for 21 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
Overtime · 4:58MIN +20% win prob(4:58) 14-R.Wright punts 26 yards to IND 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.
4th · 2:28MIN +17% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-D.Cook for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 0:23IND +16% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 87-T.Hockenson. MIN-71-C.Darrisaw was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 40-yard field goal with 0:07 left in overtime put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:15Chase McLaughlin·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
1st8:20JoJo Domann·24-yd return TD24-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+710–0
1st3:55Deon Jackson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+717–0
2nd13:11Chase McLaughlin·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+320–0
2nd10:46Chase McLaughlin·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+323–0
Overtime0:07Greg Joseph·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+336–39
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryVikings
Colts3–6Vikings
342Total yards521
4.4Yards per play6.1
41%Success rate44%
32%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays6
19First downs27
3Sacks taken7
1Turnovers3
The read
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Colts: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.13Vikings: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Colts: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Colts: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.52Vikings: −0.52 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 78 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Vikings’s 86 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Vikings 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 43.2%, is past their previous high of 28.3% in week 13 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
3.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.3% in week 14 against 18.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 64 dropbacks
Vikings18.9%
leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteMIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 43.2%, 24.1 points above their season mean of 19.1% and 3.1 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Haack punts+49% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:49) 6-M.Haack punts 38 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.
OT 1:49 · Colts · 4th & 9 at IND 44 · gained nothing · -0.79 EP · +48.5% win probability
219 snaps placed · 21 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 240 plays across 35 drives, personnel groupings on 240 snaps, manual charting on 196. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 35 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 88 yards from the MIN 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
240 of 240 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
240
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
861
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR71-0.0477%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64-0.1452%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4623%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.4943%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
240 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
240 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Colts3Vikings0
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Vikings 1
Colts9Vikings0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Colts10Vikings0
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Colts 35
Colts16Vikings0
Colts17Vikings0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Vikings 1
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 30
2nd quarter55 plays
Colts20Vikings0
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 8
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 31
Colts23Vikings0
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 31
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 40
Colts29Vikings0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 12
Colts30Vikings0
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 36
Colts33Vikings0
Field goal14 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Vikings 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Vikings 47
Colts33Vikings6
Colts33Vikings7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Colts 2
Colts36Vikings7
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Vikings 34
Colts36Vikings13
Colts36Vikings14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 36
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter68 plays
Colts36Vikings20
Colts36Vikings21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Colts 8
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 33
Intercepted8 plays, from the Vikings 13 to the Colts 41
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 2 to the Colts 4
Colts36Vikings27
Colts36Vikings28
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Colts 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 38
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Colts 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Vikings 36
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Colts36Vikings34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Colts36Vikings36
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 35
The period ended2 plays
Overtime31 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Colts 39
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 44
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Colts36Vikings39
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Colts 22
4th quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
