2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · NRG Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Houston Texans

KC -14.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -14.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 6:22, KC +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 6:22KC 24 — HOU 24KC ball · 3rd & 4KC 65%

(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 6:22KC +31% win prob(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
OT · 5:41HOU +29% win prob(5:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 25-D.King.
OT · 5:34KC +24% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end to HOU 15 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark), touched at HOU 28, RECOVERED by KC-50-W.Gay at HOU 26.
Q4 · 0:12KC +24% win prob(:12) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:04HOU Touchdown
(1:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 84-T.Quitoriano for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 0 — HOU 7
Q2 · 12:33KC Touchdown
(12:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — HOU 7
Q2 · 9:28HOU Touchdown
(9:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — HOU 14
Q2 · 0:17KC Touchdown
(:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 13 — HOU 14
Q3 · 9:08KC Field goal
(9:08) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 16 — HOU 14
Q3 · 1:30HOU Touchdown
(1:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-50-W.Gay, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 16 — HOU 21
Q4 · 12:05KC Touchdown
(12:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: KC 24 — HOU 21
Q4 · 5:14HOU Field goal
(5:14) 7-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: KC 24 — HOU 24
OT · 5:19KC Touchdown
(5:19) 1-J.McKinnon left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 30 — HOU 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Texans
Offensive plays	77	56
Total yards	504 (edge)	221
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	61% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	61%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	32 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

36/41, 336 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +14.9% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

12/24, 121 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.5 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

15 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Jerick McKinnonRB

10 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/10 for 105 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

10/10 for 88 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	6	14	1:52	Punt
2	KC	KC 19	8	29	3:20	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 15	4	0	1:24	Punt
4	KC	KC 40	4	-4	1:41	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 20	12	66	5:42	Touchdown +7
6	KC	KC 25	9	75	3:34	Touchdown +7
7	HOU	HOU 25	8	15	2:50	Punt
8	KC	KC 22	1	0	0:06	Fumble
9	HOU	KC 17	3	17	0:12	Touchdown +7
10	KC	KC 25	5	9	1:51	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 22	6	28	3:22	Punt
12	KC	KC 3	14	108	3:52	Touchdown +6
13	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:14	End of half
14	KC	KC 25	11	67	5:55	Field goal +3
15	HOU	HOU 25	5	0	0:22	Punt
16	KC	KC 23	6	36	3:00	Fumble
17	HOU	KC 49	8	28	4:18	Touchdown +7
18	KC	KC 16	11	78	4:28	Touchdown +8
19	HOU	HOU 25	16	51	6:46	Field goal +3
20	KC	KC 23	12	44	5:03	Missed field goal
21	HOU	HOU 41	1	0	0:08	Turnover on downs
22	KC	KC 9	9	36	4:26	Punt
23	HOU	HOU 13	1	2	0:15	Fumble
24	KC	HOU 26	1	26	0:06	Touchdown +6

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 108 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	36/41	336	2	0	2	16.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	15	86	5.7	0	-3.5
Jerick McKinnon	10	52	5.2	1	-0.8
Patrick Mahomes	5	33	6.6	1	2.5
Skyy Moore	2	12	6.0	0	0.7
Ronald Jones	1	6	6.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	10	10	105	0	24%	8.0
JuJu Smith-Schuster	10	10	88	0	24%	1.5
Jerick McKinnon	8	8	70	1	20%	4.9
Noah Gray	3	3	31	0	7%	1.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	5	26	1	12%	2.0
Isiah Pacheco	1	1	11	0	2%	0.6
Kadarius Toney	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.3
Justin Watson	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.7
Joseph Fortson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	4	3	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	5	1	0.0	0
Frank Clark	3	2	1.0	0
Willie Gay	2	2	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	3	1	0.0	0
Justin Reid	4	0	0.0	1
Khalen Saunders	0	3	0.0	1
Carlos Dunlap	1	1	0.0	2
Darius Harris	1	1	0.0	0
Trent McDuffie	1	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	12/24	121	2	0	2.5
Jeff Driskel	2/4	8	0	1	-2.6
Phillip Dorsett	0/1	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Royce Freeman	11	51	4.6	0	0.5
Davis Mills	5	21	4.2	1	-2.2
Dare Ogunbowale	8	14	1.8	0	-4.2
Jeff Driskel	4	8	2.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Moore	4	8	42	0	30%	0.6
Amari Rodgers	2	4	26	0	15%	0.8
Jordan Akins	3	6	22	1	22%	0.9
Rex Burkhead	2	4	17	0	15%	-1.5
Brevin Jordan	1	1	9	0	4%	1.9
Teagan Quitoriano	1	2	8	1	7%	1.5
Royce Freeman	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.1
Phillip Dorsett	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jalen Pitre	7	5	0.0	0
Christian Harris	6	6	0.0	0
Tremon Smith	6	3	0.0	1
M.J. Stewart	7	2	0.0	0
Christian Kirksey	7	2	1.0	0
Jonathan Owens	5	2	0.0	0
Maliek Collins	3	1	0.0	0
Desmond King	2	2	0.0	0
Tavierre Thomas	1	2	0.0	0
Blake Cashman	2	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -14.5
Closing total: 48.5
KC moneyline: -755
HOU moneyline: +572

Chiefs closed -14.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 54 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Lovie Smith