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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at OT 6:22, 3rd and 4, on Patrick Mahomes — 31.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 6:22, Texans +31.4% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:22 · 3rd and 4
Patrick Mahomes
Texans
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
31.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 30.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jerick McKinnon's 26-yard rushing touchdown with 5:19 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+613–14Harrison Butker27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+316–149 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryTexans
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 77 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Texans 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate, 15.2%, is past their previous low of 17.5% in week 11 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.8 pts in week 14 against −0.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.6 pts in week 14 against −0.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-0.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.9 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 76 snaps
Texans-0.1 ptsright on their number · +2.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Chiefs54.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 64 early downs
Texans52.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 45%
Tendencies room →Chiefs10.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Texans15.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.0 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs0.0%inside their normal wobble · −19.2 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±30.1 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 48%
Tendencies room →Chiefs21.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans21.7%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chiefs18.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans6.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
KC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.1 pts, 10.9 points below their season mean of 10.7 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
36/41, 336 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.5 expected points added · +14.9% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
12/24, 121 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.5 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected
Receiving · KC
10/10 for 88 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerick McKinnon banked 14.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnonRB · Committee Back | 34.2 | +14.9 | 62% | 77% | 20% | 0% | 10 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 8/8, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 32.7 | +8.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 36/41, 336 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 20.5 | +4.6 | 75% | 85% | 24% | 24% | 10/10, 105 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | +4.7 | 83% | — | 0% | — | 12/24, 121 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Featured Receiver | 16.8 | +0.4 | 88% | 87% | 24% | 30% | 10/10, 88 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +1.7 | 53% | 68% | 12% | 22% | 3/5, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Featured Receiver | 11.2 | −0.7 | 48% | 55% | 22% | 17% | 3/6, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | −1.7 | 35% | 23% | 2% | 0% | 15 car, 86 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −5.5 | 87% | 91% | 30% | 36% | 4/8, 42 yd |
| Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.9 | 81% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Royce FreemanRB · Committee Back | 6.6 | −0.9 | 38% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 51 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.4 | 56% | 55% | 7% | 1% | 3/3, 31 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −2.1 | 51% | 52% | 15% | 19% | 2/4, 26 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Receiving Back | 3.7 | −1.5 | 19% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1.4 | −2.2 | 43% | 48% | 0% | — | 8 car, 14 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.2 | 38% | 19% | 0% | — | 2 car, 12 yd |
| Jeff DriskelQB | 1.1 | −3.3 | 29% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 8 yd · 4 car, 8 yd |
| Ronald JonesRB | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Troy HairstonRB | 0.0 | — | 13% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 86% | 94% | 4% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Joseph FortsonTE | 0.0 | −3.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 65% | 55% | 5% | 29% | 0/2, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
OT 6:22 · Chiefs · 3rd & 4 at HOU 43 · lost 12 · -2.69 EP · −31.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 97 yards from the KC 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs0
Texans6Chiefs0Texans7Chiefs6Texans7Chiefs7Texans7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Chiefs7Texans13Chiefs7Texans14Chiefs13Texans14Chiefs16Texans14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs16Texans20Chiefs16Texans21Chiefs22Texans21Chiefs24Texans21Chiefs24Texans24How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Chiefs30Texans24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 36/41 | 336 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +16.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 1 | −0.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 10 | 105 | 0 | 24% | +8.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 12/24 | 121 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2/4 | 8 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_KC_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -14.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 54 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 33 |
| 6.6 |
| 1 |
| +2.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| 24% |
| +1.5 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 8 | 70 | 1 | 20% | +4.9 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 12% | +2.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | −0.3 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khalen Saunders | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carlos Dunlap | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darius Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −2.6 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Davis Mills | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Jeff Driskel | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 30% | +0.6 |
| Amari Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 15% | +0.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 22% | +0.9 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 15% | −1.5 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremon Smith | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| M.J. Stewart | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
