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Kansas City Chiefs 30 at Houston Texans 24. Final.
Chiefs -14.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Texans 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 6:22, 3rd and 4, on Patrick Mahomes — 31.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:22 · 3rd and 4
Patrick Mahomes
Texans
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
Dome
Chiefs closed -14.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 6:22, Texans +31.4% win probability on one snap.
31.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsOT 5:41(5:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 25-D.King.
28.5pts
Davis MillsChiefsOT 5:34(5:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end to HOU 15 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark), touched at HOU 28, RECOVERED by KC-50-W.Gay at HOU 26.
24.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 30.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Chiefs172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
Swing +31.4 for TexansExpected points +2.69 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:22KC +31% win prob(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
Overtime · 5:41HOU +29% win prob(5:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to HOU 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 25-D.King.
Overtime · 5:34KC +24% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end to HOU 15 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark), touched at HOU 28, RECOVERED by KC-50-W.Gay at HOU 26.
4th · 0:12KC +24% win prob(:12) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
3rd · 1:30HOU +14% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-50-W.Gay, Illegal Contact, declined.
Overtime · 5:19HOU +14% win prob(5:19) 1-J.McKinnon left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jerick McKinnon's 26-yard rushing touchdown with 5:19 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st1:04Teagan Quitoriano·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+70–7
2nd12:33Jerick McKinnon·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–7
4th5:14Ka'imi Fairbairn·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+324–24
Overtime5:19Jerick McKinnon·26-yd TD run26-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+630–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryTexans
Chiefs6–2Texans
504Total yards221
6.5Yards per play3.9
61%Success rate32%
50%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays3
32First downs13
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.14Texans: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Chiefs: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Chiefs: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.23Texans: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 77 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Texans 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.8 pts in week 14 against −0.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.6 pts in week 14 against −0.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans6.4%
inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -0.1 pts, 10.9 points below their season mean of 10.7 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
77Andrew WylieG · Every snap100%77 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%77 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%77 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%77 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%77 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time88%68 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation75%58 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation65%50 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation56%43 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation53%41 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.Mahomes sacked−31% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 45 for -12 yards (53-B.Cashman).
OT 6:22 · Chiefs · 3rd & 4 at HOU 43 · lost 12 · -2.69 EP · −31.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 97 yards from the KC 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
723
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0747%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1677%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.3467%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.1063%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.5957%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4233%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2940%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 39
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Chiefs 48
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Chiefs0Texans6
Chiefs0Texans7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 36
2nd quarter50 plays
Chiefs6Texans7
Chiefs7Texans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Texans 20
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Chiefs7Texans13
Chiefs7Texans14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 31
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 22 to midfield
Chiefs13Texans14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Texans 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Chiefs16Texans14
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Texans 8
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Texans 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chiefs16Texans20
Chiefs16Texans21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 28
4th quarter42 plays
Chiefs22Texans21
Chiefs24Texans21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Texans 5
Chiefs24Texans24
Field goal17 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chiefs 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended16 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Texans 31
The period ended2 plays
Overtime13 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Texans 43
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs30Texans24
Touchdown1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -14.5
Closing total
48.5
Chiefs moneyline
-755
Texans moneyline
+572
Chiefs closed -14.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 54 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Lovie Smith
Overtime · 8:08
HOU +12% win prob
(8:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at HOU 49 for 14 yards (5-J.Pitre).
2nd · 9:37KC +12% win prob(9:37) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 22 for no gain (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison), touched at KC 22, RECOVERED by HOU-25-D.King at KC 22. 25-D.King to KC 17 for 5 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster; 24-S.Moore).
