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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Rams 12 at Green Bay Packers 24. Final.
Packers -8 ✓U 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 15
Green Bay Packers 24, Rams 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:39, 1st and 10, on Taylor Rapp — 5.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:39 · 1st and 10
Taylor Rapp
Rams
(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
12°F
Packers closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.
Green Bay Packers 24–12. Biggest swing: Q1 0:39, Rams +5.9% win probability on one snap.
5.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Van JeffersonRamsQ1 12:56(12:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 12-V.Jefferson to LA 47 for 17 yards (26-D.Savage).
5.2pts
Cam AkersRamsQ2 12:43(12:43) 3-C.Akers left end pushed ob at GB 33 for 6 yards (20-R.Ford). PENALTY on GB-20-R.Ford, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 33.
5.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Rams at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 4 of 8 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Rams141 of 154 plays carry both curves
(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
Swing −5.9 for PackersExpected points −4.54 for PackersThe model had Rams 10 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:39LA +6% win prob(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
1st · 12:56GB +5% win prob(12:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 12-V.Jefferson to LA 47 for 17 yards (26-D.Savage).
2nd · 12:43GB +5% win prob(12:43) 3-C.Akers left end pushed ob at GB 33 for 6 yards (20-R.Ford). PENALTY on GB-20-R.Ford, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 33.
2nd · 12:16LA +5% win prob(12:16) 15-T.Atwell left end to GB 22 for -4 yards (31-A.Amos).
2nd · 10:45GB +4% win prob(10:45) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
3rd · 11:43GB +4% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 28-A.Dillon pushed ob at LA 28 for 17 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Dillon's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 4:33 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:29Mason Crosby·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+30–3
2nd10:45Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+33–3
2nd4:33A.J. Dillon·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
2nd0:51Matt Gay·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+36–10
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Rams: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Rams: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.03Packers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Rams: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 43 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Packers’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Rams 2, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's play-action rate, 44.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 5.1 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers29.6%
leaned — got home · +12.9 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.6%, 12.9 points above their season mean of 16.7% and 1.6 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
68Ty NsekheT · Every snap100%45 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%45 snaps
64Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%45 snaps
17Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%45 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%45 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time98%44 snaps
63Oday AboushiG · Full-time96%43 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time89%40 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Full-time84%38 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation76%34 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Heavy rotation67%30 snaps
81Austin TrammellWR · Rotational31%14 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Situational18%8 snaps
41Malcolm BrownRB · Situational16%7 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Situational11%5 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Situational9%4 snaps
55Brian AllenC · Situational4%2 snaps
82Lance McCutcheonWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
David LongCBAaron DonaldDTMarquise CopelandDTLarrell MurchisonDTBobby EvansGTravin HowardILBJohn WolfordQB
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
Q1 0:39 · Packers · 1st & 10 at LA 44 · gained nothing · -4.54 EP · −10.9% win probability
139 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, manual charting on 126. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 82 yards from the GB 14 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
44%
Yards
501
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1160%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3156%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.2336%
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 48
Rams0Packers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Rams 5
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 30
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Rams 44
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Rams3Packers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Packers 15
Rams3Packers9
Rams3Packers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Rams 8
Rams6Packers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Packers 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 44
3rd quarter40 plays
Rams6Packers16
Rams6Packers17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Rams 1
Punt6 plays
Rams6Packers23
Rams6Packers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Rams 7
Rams12Packers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Packers 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Rams 35
Intercepted3 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 31
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Packers 41
The period ended19 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Rams 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
