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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 19, 2022 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q1 0:39, 1st and 10, on Taylor Rapp — 5.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 24–12. Biggest swing: Q1 0:39, Rams +5.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:39 · 1st and 10
Taylor Rapp
Rams
(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
5.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Rams at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 4 of 8 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 11 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
A.J. Dillon's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 4:33 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Tyler Higbee8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · kick no good, wide right+612–247 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 43 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Packers’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Rams 2, Packers 5.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LA's play-action rate, 44.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 5.1 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-8.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 43 snaps
Packers2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 84%
Tendencies room →Rams50.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 32 early downs
Packers45.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Rams44.4%leaned — faked the run · +16.0 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Packers39.4%leaned — faked the run · +12.6 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.8%.
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 58%
Tendencies room →Rams18.2%inside their normal wobble · −10.2 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers14.8%inside their normal wobble · −8.0 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 37%
Tendencies room →Rams15.2%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers29.6%leaned — got home · +12.9 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
GB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.6%, 12.9 points above their season mean of 16.7% and 1.6 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
22/30, 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.0 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected
Passing · LA
12/21, 111 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.4 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
A.J. Dillon banked 6.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 22.1 | +6.1 | 37% | 45% | 11% | 0% | 11 car, 36 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 35 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 20.6 | −0.9 | 56% | 58% | 18% | 0% | 17 car, 90 yd · 4/5, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 229 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +2.1 | 32% | 30% | 18% | 27% | 5/5, 55 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | −5.0 | 87% | 94% | 21% | 22% | 4/6, 46 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | 0.0 | 41% | 52% | 14% | 21% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.7 | 41% | 33% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.0 | 94% | 97% | 7% | 27% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 1.5 | −0.6 | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | 4 car, 15 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.6 | 52% | 45% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:39) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at LA 14. 24-T.Rapp to LA 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Dillon).
Q1 0:39 · Packers · 1st & 10 at LA 44 · gained nothing · -4.54 EP · −10.9% win probability
139 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, manual charting on 126. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 82 yards from the GB 14 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
Packers3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Rams3Packers3Rams3Packers9Rams3Packers10Rams6Packers10Rams6Packers16Rams6Packers17Rams6Packers23Rams6Packers24Rams12Packers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/21 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 5 | −3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Brandon Powell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 15% | +2.2 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Scott | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Troy Hill |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/30 | 229 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_LA_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -8 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 36 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| +4.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 25% | +2.4 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 20% | −0.2 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15% | −3.1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.3 |
| A.J. Dillon | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Patrick Taylor | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 18% | +4.8 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 21% | +0.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 18% | +0.5 |
| A.J. Dillon | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 11% | +2.3 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 14% | +0.9 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −4.2 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasul Douglas | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
