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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 17, 2022 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q4 14:47, 1st and 10, on Josh Allen — 18.5 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:47 · 1st and 10
Josh Allen
Dolphins
(14:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 45 for -4 yards (15-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (15-J.Phillips) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at BUF 49. 94-C.Wilkins to BUF 47 for 2 yards (77-D.Quessenberry).
Buffalo Bills 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:47, Dolphins +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 5 of 14 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — +0.46 expected points per carry, against Bills at +0.08 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Bills at 7 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(14:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 45 for -4 yards (15-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (15-J.Phillips) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at BUF 49. 94-C.Wilkins to BUF 47 for 2 yards (77-D.Quessenberry).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Bass's 25-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jaylen Waddle67-yd TD catch67-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoa · two-point no good+619–21
Tyler Bass25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+329–3211 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 71 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Bills 5.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's early-down pass rate, 47.6%, is past their previous low of 51.6% in week 3 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 53.6% in week 14 against 18.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins3.6 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 57 snaps
Bills-0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 85%
Tendencies room →Dolphins47.6%leaned — ran early · −10.0 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 42 early downs
Bills57.9%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins33.3%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills30.2%leaned — faked the run · +10.4 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins20.0%inside their normal wobble · −11.9 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 69%
Tendencies room →Dolphins18.6%inside their normal wobble · −13.1 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills30.3%leaned — sent pressure · +13.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Dolphins14.0%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills8.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
BUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 30.2%, 10.4 points above their season mean of 19.8% and 1.3 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
25/40, 304 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
12.6 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
17/30, 234 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-2.0 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jaylen Waddle banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 35.9 | +5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/40, 304 yd, 4 TD · 10 car, 77 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | +0.6 | 83% | 85% | 43% | 33% | 9/13, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Featured Receiver | 21.8 | +7.5 | 82% | 81% | 21% | 20% | 6/8, 98 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 20.4 | +8.9 | 69% | 71% | 23% | 46% | 3/7, 114 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/30, 234 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 7 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.6 | +4.8 | 76% | 76% | 7% | 0% | 17 car, 136 yd · 1/2, 20 yd |
| James CookRB | 11.9 | +3.9 | 36% | 35% | 8% | 3% | 5 car, 34 yd · 2/3, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | −5.9 | 86% | 88% | 24% | 25% | 1 car, -3 yd · 5/9, 60 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 10.3 | +7.3 | 24% | 21% | 0% | — | 6 car, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | −2.4 | 60% | 56% | 11% | 0% | 13 car, 42 yd · 3/4, 28 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 9.6 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +5.0 | 17% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 8.0 | +6.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −4.0 | 56% | 63% | 13% | 24% | 2/5, 24 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.1 | 22% | 24% | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 21 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 14% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.9 | −1.2 | 54% | 35% | 7% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 20% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −0.6 | 64% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -2 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Braylon SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 22% | 24% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.2 | 54% | 62% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:57 · Dolphins · 3rd & 4 at MIA 33 · gained 67 · +6.58 EP · +17.8% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 186 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 86 yards from the BUF 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins3
Bills0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins3Bills6Dolphins3Bills7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Dolphins6Bills7Dolphins6Bills13Dolphins6Bills14Dolphins12Bills14Dolphins13Bills14Dolphins13Bills20Dolphins13Bills21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins19Bills21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins25Bills21Dolphins26Bills21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Dolphins29Bills21How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins29Bills27Dolphins29Bills29How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, caught in traffic.
Dolphins29Bills32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/30 | 234 | 2 | 0 | 2 | −2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 17 | 136 | 8.0 | 0 | +6.4 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 114 | 1 | 23% | +4.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 13 | 69 | 1 | 43% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keion Crossen | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 25/40 | 304 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +12.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_MIA_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44; the game landed 61 — over by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | +0.8 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| Braylon Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.9 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 77 |
| 7.7 |
| 0 |
| +1.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.5 |
| James Cook | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 8 | 98 | 1 | 21% | +7.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 24% | +1.2 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 16% | +2.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +1.4 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 13% | −0.2 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8% | +2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kaiir Elam | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
