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2022 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 17, 2022 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

29

Buffalo BillsWinner

32

BUF -7 no coverO 44 ✓29°F

Buffalo Bills 32–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:47, MIA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 14:47MIA 26 — BUF 21BUF ball · 1st & 10MIA 53%

(14:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 45 for -4 yards (15-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (15-J.Phillips) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at BUF 49. 94-C.Wilkins to BUF 47 for 2 yards (77-D.Quessenberry).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 14:47MIA +18% win prob(14:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 45 for -4 yards (15-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (15-J.Phillips) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at BUF 49. 94-C.Wilkins to BUF 47 for 2 yards (77-D.Quessenberry).
  2. Q3 · 12:57BUF +15% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 4:05BUF +12% win prob(4:05) 4-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to BUF 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines. PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
  4. Q4 · 9:06BUF +12% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:03MIA Field goal

    (3:03) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 1:09BUF Touchdown

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — BUF 7
  3. Q2 · 14:50MIA Field goal

    (14:50) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — BUF 7
  4. Q2 · 8:22BUF Touchdown

    (8:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 20-N.Hines for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — BUF 14
  5. Q2 · 3:05MIA Touchdown

    (3:05) 26-S.Ahmed right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 13 — BUF 14
  6. Q2 · 0:08BUF Touchdown

    (:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 28-J.Cook for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-B.Chubb]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 13 — BUF 21
  7. Q3 · 12:57MIA Touchdown

    (12:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: MIA 19 — BUF 21
  8. Q3 · 2:34MIA Touchdown

    (2:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 26 — BUF 21
  9. Q4 · 12:01MIA Field goal

    (12:01) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: MIA 29 — BUF 21
  10. Q4 · 9:06BUF Touchdown

    (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 29 — BUF 29
  11. Q4 · 0:02BUF Field goal

    (:02) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. Penalty on MIA-27-K.Crossen, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: MIA 29 — BUF 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsBills
Offensive plays5871
Total yards405451 (edge)
Yards per play7.0 (edge)6.4
Expected points added / play0.160.19 (edge)
Success rate45%54% (edge)
Dropback rate59%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.050.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.46 (edge)0.08
Third downs5/148/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps1826 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

25/40, 304 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

12.6 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

17/30, 234 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

17 att, 136 yds, 0 TD

6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

3/7 for 114 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

6/8 for 98 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 366171:54Punt
2BUFBUF 76282:22Punt
3MIAMIA 2714577:45Field goal +3
4BUFBUF 256751:54Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 256681:18Field goal +3
6BUFBUF 2514806:29Touchdown +7
7MIAMIA 2512755:19Touchdown +7
8BUFBUF 1814672:59Touchdown +7
9BUFBUF 18561:21Punt
10MIAMIA 274730:51Touchdown +6
11BUFBUF 257422:43Punt
12MIAMIA 116233:08Punt
13BUFBUF 2421:28Punt
14MIA507352:59Touchdown +7
15BUFBUF 357101:39Punt
16MIAMIA 10471:04Punt
17BUFBUF 49100:08Fumble
18MIABUF 475182:43Field goal +3
19BUFBUF 259732:54Touchdown +8
20MIAMIA 257323:06Punt
21BUFBUF 715685:56Field goal +3

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa17/30234202-2.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert171368.006.4
Salvon Ahmed6437.214.2
Tua Tagovailoa177.000.2
Alec Ingold122.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle37114123%4.9
Tyreek Hill91369143%0.3
Cedrick Wilson122107%0.9
Raheem Mostert122007%0.8
Alec Ingold12707%-0.5
Mike Gesicki11503%-0.2
Trent Sherfield01003%-1.7
Braylon Sanders01003%-0.5
Durham Smythe11-203%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Keion Crossen510.000
Christian Wilkins420.000
Kader Kohou600.001
Elandon Roberts500.000
Zach Sieler321.000
Jerome Baker320.000
Xavien Howard400.000
Jevon Holland310.001
Andrew Van Ginkel120.000
Jaelan Phillips211.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen25/4030440212.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen10777.701.9
Devin Singletary13423.20-2.5
James Cook5346.801.5
Stefon Diggs1-3-3.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dawson Knox6898121%7.9
Stefon Diggs5960024%1.2
Gabe Davis4656016%2.7
Devin Singletary3428011%1.4
Isaiah McKenzie2524013%-0.2
Quintin Morris111413%1.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines111013%2.5
Cole Beasley11903%0.8
James Cook23518%2.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds620.000
Matt Milano250.500
Damar Hamlin320.000
Jordan Poyer320.000
Taron Johnson400.001
Gregory Rousseau310.000
DaQuan Jones120.500
Tre'Davious White300.003
Kaiir Elam300.001
Dane Jackson300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -7
Closing total
44
MIA moneyline
+273
BUF moneyline
-320

Bills closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 61 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
29°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
MIA 6 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.