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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q4 0:03, 3rd and 10, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 52.6 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 3rd and 10
Rhamondre Stevenson
Raiders
(:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Las Vegas Raiders 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Raiders +52.6% win probability on one snap.
52.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Raiders won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 13 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Raiders at 5 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chandler Jones's 48-yard touchdown with 0:03 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Chandler Jones48-yd defence TD48-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+624–3010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryRaiders
Patriots ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Raiders’s 64 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Raiders 3.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's blitz rate sent, 48.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.2 pts in week 14 against −11.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
LV's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.1% in week 14 against 57.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-11.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.7 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 62 snaps
Raiders-6.5 ptsright on their number · −3.1 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 83%
Tendencies room →Patriots49.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 49 early downs
Raiders57.1%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 47%
Tendencies room →Patriots12.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Raiders19.5%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 115%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 59%
Tendencies room →Patriots48.8%leaned — sent pressure · +22.5 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders24.2%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Patriots9.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders14.7%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.8%, 22.5 points above their season mean of 26.3% and 1.8 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
20/38, 231 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
-3.9 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Passing · NE
13/31, 112 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.4 expected points added · -23.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Keelan Cole banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 24.8 | +9.2 | 66% | 59% | 10% | 0% | 19 car, 172 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, -4 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/38, 231 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT |
| Mack HollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.0 | −3.0 | 88% | 88% | 25% | 36% | 4/8, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.8 | +7.7 | 49% | 66% | 9% | 8% | 3/3, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.0 | −1.3 | 75% | 63% | 9% | 2% | 22 car, 93 yd · 2/3, 17 yd |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.0 | +9.2 | 24% | 27% | 6% | 10% | 2/2, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 7.5 | −9.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/31, 112 yd · 4 car, 10 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.8 | −9.2 | 99% | 100% | 28% | 23% | 4/9, 28 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB · Receiving Back | 6.7 | +0.6 | 26% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 4 car, 25 yd · 3/3, 12 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −4.4 | 62% | 68% | 20% | 37% | 2/6, 47 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −3.1 | 58% | 35% | 10% | 6% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.6 | 56% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 3.4 | +0.1 | 22% | 34% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.7 | 92% | 88% | 13% | 22% | 1/4, 21 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.2 | 80% | 76% | 13% | 1% | 2/4, 9 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −2.7 | 43% | 59% | 9% | 11% | 1/3, 14 yd |
| Kevin HarrisRB | 1.9 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Featured Receiver | 1.3 | −11.3 | 83% | 76% | 20% | 33% | 1/6, 3 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 22% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 17% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Raleigh WebbWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:03 · Patriots · 3rd & 10 at NE 45 · gained 3 · -7.20 EP · −51.9% win probability
175 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 87 yards from the NE 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Raiders3Patriots3Raiders3Patriots3Raiders9Patriots3Raiders10Patriots3Raiders16Patriots3Raiders17How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots9Raiders17Patriots10Raiders17Patriots13Raiders17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Patriots16Raiders17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots22Raiders17Patriots24Raiders17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Patriots24Raiders23Patriots24Raiders24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots24Raiders30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 13/31 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 172 | 9.1 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Pierre Strong | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Kevin Harris | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 20% | −0.1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 20/38 | 231 | 3 | 1 | 3 | −3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_NE_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| Mac Jones | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | +1.1 |
| Pierre Strong | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −3.2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20% | −4.2 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 10% | −3.0 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Marcus Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 93 |
| 4.2 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 6% | +6.2 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 | 9% | +4.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 25% | +3.3 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 28% | −8.8 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Masterson | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Peko | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Hall | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
