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2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium

New England Patriots

24

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

30

LV -1 ✓O 45 ✓Dome

Las Vegas Raiders 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, NE +53% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑NE ↓
Q4 · 0:03NE 24 — LV 30NE ball · 3rd & 10NE 53%

(:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:03NE +53% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:37LV +22% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 84-K.Cole for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q4 · 3:51LV +21% win prob(3:51) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 12:11NE +14% win prob(12:11) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at LV 16. 23-K.Dugger for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:31LV Field goal

    (8:31) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: NE 0 — LV 3
  2. Q2 · 11:55NE Field goal

    (11:55) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: NE 3 — LV 3
  3. Q2 · 5:22LV Touchdown

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 83-D.Waller for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 3 — LV 10
  4. Q2 · 0:09LV Touchdown

    (:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 3 — LV 17
  5. Q3 · 12:11NE Touchdown

    (12:11) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at LV 16. 23-K.Dugger for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 10 — LV 17
  6. Q3 · 1:26NE Field goal

    (1:26) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: NE 13 — LV 17
  7. Q4 · 12:57NE Field goal

    (12:57) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: NE 16 — LV 17
  8. Q4 · 3:51NE Touchdown

    (3:51) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NE 24 — LV 17
  9. Q4 · 0:37LV Touchdown

    (:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 84-K.Cole for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 24 — LV 24
  10. Q4 · 0:03LV Touchdown

    (:03) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to LV 32 for 23 yards. Lateral to 16-J.Meyers to LV 40 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LV-55-C.Jones at NE 48. 55-C.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NE 24 — LV 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsRaiders
Offensive plays6364
Total yards321 (edge)308
Yards per play5.1 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play-0.11-0.07 (edge)
Success rate38%39% (edge)
Dropback rate54%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.01
Third downs2/135/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)16
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers11

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

20/38, 231 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

13/31, 112 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -23.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

19 att, 172 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

22 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

3/3 for 48 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

2/6 for 47 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 2713526:34Field goal +3
2NENE 256131:25Punt
3LVLV 306212:51Punt
4NENE 1214727:19Field goal +3
5LVLV 2413866:33Touchdown +7
6NENE 25511:29Punt
7LVLV 39421:42Punt
8NENE 265261:40Punt
9LVNE 203150:23Touchdown +7
10NENE 25200:04End of half
11NENE 258212:10Punt
12LVLV 13240:43Defensive touchdown
13LVLV 338234:13Punt
14NENE 212696:33Field goal +3
15LVLV 95-51:32Punt
16NE50791:57Field goal +3
17LVLV 268154:30Punt
18NENE 22441:07Punt
19LVLV 194142:05Punt
20NENE 244781:27Touchdown +8
21LVLV 31500:31Punt
22NENE 28451:01Punt
23LVLV 1910811:39Touchdown +7
24NENE 257230:32Defensive touchdown

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones13/31112000-9.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rhamondre Stevenson191729.11-0.5
Pierre Strong4256.301.3
Kevin Harris5193.80-0.3
Mac Jones4102.501.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers2647020%-0.1
Jonnu Smith2324010%1.2
Tyquan Thornton1421013%1.1
Pierre Strong3312010%-0.4
Hunter Henry249013%-3.2
Nelson Agholor163020%-4.2
Kendrick Bourne01003%-0.7
Rhamondre Stevenson23-4010%-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ja'Whaun Bentley541.000
Jahlani Tavai420.000
Lawrence Guy150.500
Kyle Dugger230.011
Marcus Jones410.001
Jonathan Jones410.001
Davon Godchaux130.500
Jabrill Peppers120.000
Christian Barmore030.500
Raekwon McMillan200.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr20/38231313-3.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs22934.20-0.1
Zamir White144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keelan Cole225016%6.2
Darren Waller334819%4.7
Mack Hollins4840125%3.3
Davante Adams4928028%-8.8
Foster Moreau222006%0.3
Josh Jacobs231709%0.1
Ameer Abdullah221406%-0.9
Hunter Renfrow131409%0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Luke Masterson460.000
Denzel Perryman810.000
Maxx Crosby230.000
Duron Harmon320.000
Nate Hobbs130.000
Kyle Peko310.000
Roderic Teamer120.000
Tyler Hall120.001
Trevon Moehrig120.000
Jerry Tillery200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -1
Closing total
45
NE moneyline
+117
LV moneyline
-129

Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
NE 6 days · LV 10 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Josh McDaniels