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2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · FedExField

New York GiantsWinner

20

Washington Commanders

12

WAS -4.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓

New York Giants 20–12. Biggest swing: Q4 6:13, NYG +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑NYG ↓
Q4 · 6:13NYG 17 — WAS 12WAS ball · 3rd & 4WAS 53%

(6:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). New York Giants challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinic

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:13NYG +31% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). New York Giants challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence) [97-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at NYG 14.
  2. Q4 · 9:06WAS +19% win prob(9:06) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson to NYG 30 for 61 yards (27-J.Pinnock).
  3. Q2 · 13:18NYG +17% win prob(13:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 2 for -8 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). FUMBLES (5-K.Thibodeaux) [5-K.Thibodeaux], RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at WAS 1. 5-K.Thibodeaux for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 0:56NYG +13% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Samuel (30-D.Holmes) [97-D.Lawrence].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:56WAS Field goal

    (2:56) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: NYG 0 — WAS 3
  2. Q2 · 13:18NYG Touchdown

    (13:18) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 2 for -8 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). FUMBLES (5-K.Thibodeaux) [5-K.Thibodeaux], RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at WAS 1. 5-K.Thibodeaux for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYG 7 — WAS 3
  3. Q2 · 1:46NYG Touchdown

    (1:46) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-S.Barkley. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYG 14 — WAS 3
  4. Q3 · 8:43WAS Touchdown

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYG 14 — WAS 9
  5. Q3 · 3:15NYG Field goal

    (3:15) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    Score after this play: NYG 17 — WAS 9
  6. Q4 · 12:36WAS Field goal

    (12:36) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: NYG 17 — WAS 12
  7. Q4 · 2:00NYG Field goal

    (2:00) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    Score after this play: NYG 20 — WAS 12

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricGiantsCommanders
Offensive plays5958
Total yards291387 (edge)
Yards per play4.96.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)-0.10
Success rate47% (edge)43%
Dropback rate58%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.070.15 (edge)
Third downs2/10 (edge)1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)410 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1919
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Commanders outgained Giants 387–291 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

17/29, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-10.5 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

21/32, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

12 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

18 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Jahan DotsonWR

4/6 for 105 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/6 for 70 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 2512366:27Punt
2NYGNYG 30430:50Punt
3WASWAS 309524:52Field goal +3
4NYGNYG 257243:43Punt
5WASWAS 182-70:58Defensive touchdown
6WASWAS 328282:52Punt
7NYGNYG 3191028:35Touchdown +7
8WASWAS 217151:27Punt
9NYGNYG 25100:16End of half
10NYGNYG 257172:11Punt
11WASWAS 97964:11Touchdown +6
12NYGNYG 2511535:27Field goal +3
13WASWAS 25591:45Punt
14NYGNYG 1451:04Punt
15WASWAS 427252:51Field goal +3
16NYGNYG 2510333:25Punt
17WASWAS 95773:00Fumble
18NYGNYG 149544:11Field goal +3
19WASWAS 438561:07Turnover on downs
20NYGNYG 6200:48End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 102 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones21/321600001.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Saquon Barkley18874.812.6
Daniel Jones10353.500.8
Matt Breida263.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Richie James4542017%3.9
Isaiah Hodgins4437013%1.8
Saquon Barkley5833027%0.3
Darius Slayton5723023%-2.7
Nick Vannett111503%1.4
Matt Breida11603%0.1
Daniel Bellinger144013%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kayvon Thibodeaux831.000
Jaylon Smith350.000
Julian Love240.000
Jason Pinnock410.002
Fabian Moreau310.000
Darnay Holmes220.001
Azeez Ojulari220.500
Nick McCloud210.002
Landon Collins120.000
Ryder Anderson111.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Taylor Heinicke17/29249103-10.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson12897.405.0
Taylor Heinicke33311.003.6
Antonio Gibson5214.20-0.7
Dyami Brown11515.000.9
Curtis Samuel510.20-3.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jahan Dotson46105122%5.6
Terry McLaurin6670022%3.0
Curtis Samuel3544019%-2.8
Brian Robinson111804%1.2
Antonio Gibson246015%-1.2
Logan Thomas136011%-0.7
Dyami Brown02007%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby McCain820.000
Danny Johnson710.002
Kamren Curl340.000
Jamin Davis430.000
Jonathan Allen330.000
Darrick Forrest230.001
Kendall Fuller120.000
Casey Toohill110.000
John Ridgeway110.000
David Mayo110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
WAS -4.5
Closing total
40.5
NYG moneyline
+180
WAS moneyline
-203

Commanders closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
35°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
NYG 7 days · WAS 14 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.