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2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q4 6:13, 3rd and 4, on Taylor Heinicke — 31.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:13 · 3rd and 4
Taylor Heinicke
Giants
(6:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). New York Giants challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence) [97-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at NYG 14.
New York Giants 20–12. Biggest swing: Q4 6:13, Giants +31.3% win probability on one snap.
31.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Giants won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 4 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(6:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). New York Giants challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinic
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kayvon Thibodeaux's 1-yard touchdown with 13:18 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Kayvon Thibodeaux1-yd defence TD1-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+77–3
Jahan Dotson19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinicke · kick no good, wide right+614–97 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryCommanders
Giants ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Commanders’s 58 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Commanders 3.
Commanders outgained Giants 387-291 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's blitz rate sent turned over: 52.8% in week 14 against 30.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Giants3.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.3 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 59 snaps
Commanders-11.7 ptsright on their number · −4.1 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Giants47.9%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 48 early downs
Commanders52.2%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 56%
Tendencies room →Giants11.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.9 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders12.1%inside their normal wobble · −8.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Giants0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.3 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±22.8 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders33.3%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 70%
Tendencies room →Giants30.3%inside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Commanders26.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Giants24.2%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Commanders11.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.6 pts, 9.3 points above their season mean of -5.8 pts and 1.1 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
17/29, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-10.5 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
21/32, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jahan Dotson banked 9.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.0 | +2.1 | 86% | 85% | 27% | 0% | 18 car, 87 yd, 1 TD · 5/8, 33 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Featured Receiver | 20.5 | +9.6 | 79% | 88% | 22% | 29% | 4/6, 105 yd, 1 TD |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | −2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 249 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 33 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | +3.9 | 92% | 91% | 22% | 12% | 6/6, 70 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 11.7 | +4.2 | 38% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 12 car, 89 yd · 1/1, 18 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/32, 160 yd · 10 car, 35 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +2.0 | 79% | 79% | 17% | 24% | 4/5, 42 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.3 | 89% | 88% | 13% | 25% | 4/4, 37 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −3.6 | 59% | 64% | 19% | 20% | 5 car, 1 yd · 3/5, 44 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −2.1 | 94% | 94% | 23% | 25% | 5/7, 23 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Receiving Back | 4.7 | −3.0 | 60% | 76% | 15% | 1% | 5 car, 21 yd · 2/4, 6 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.3 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 2.2 | −0.2 | 17% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.7 | 63% | 76% | 11% | 10% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.4 | 16% | 6% | 7% | 29% | 1 car, 15 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −4.3 | 98% | 94% | 13% | 16% | 1/4, 4 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dax MilneWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). New York Giants challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at NYG 9 for -4 yards (sack split by 97-D.Lawrence and 51-A.Ojulari). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence) [97-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at NYG 14.
Q4 6:13 · Commanders · 3rd & 4 at NYG 5 · lost 9 · -4.54 EP · −30.7% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 97 yards from the NYG 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Commanders3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Giants6Commanders3Giants7Commanders3Giants13Commanders3Giants14Commanders3Giants14Commanders9Giants17Commanders9Giants17Commanders12How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Giants20Commanders12Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/32 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 17% | +3.9 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 13% | +1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 17/29 | 249 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −10.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_NYG_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 32 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 27% | +0.3 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 23% | −2.7 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13% | −2.1 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Fabian Moreau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick McCloud | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Landon Collins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryder Anderson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 89 |
| 7.4 |
| 0 |
| +5.0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 4 | 6 | 105 | 1 | 22% | +5.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 22% | +3.0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 19% | −2.8 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 15% | −1.2 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −0.7 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McCain | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kamren Curl | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Ridgeway | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Mayo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
