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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q1 7:29, 1st and 10, on Kyler Gordon — 11.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:29 · 1st and 10
Kyler Gordon
Bears
(7:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI 17. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 17 for no gain (11-A.Brown). Penalty on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Philadelphia Eagles 25–20. Biggest swing: Q1 7:29, Bears +11.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Bears at 5 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(7:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI 17. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 17 for no gain (11-A.Brown). Penalty on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Hurts's 22-yard rushing touchdown with 0:48 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBears
Eagles ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 70 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Bears’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Bears 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 2.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 20.9% in week 14 against 6.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles0.1 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 69 snaps
Bears-5.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.3 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 76%
Tendencies room →Eagles56.9%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 51 early downs
Bears50.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 54%
Tendencies room →Eagles11.9%right on their number · −5.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bears18.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 120%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
Bears—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 54%
Tendencies room →Eagles6.1%leaned — sat back · −7.7 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears31.0%inside their normal wobble · +11.3 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Eagles18.2%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears2.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
CHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.4%, 5.7 points below their season mean of 8.1% and 1.7 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
22/37, 315 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
0.8 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
14/21, 152 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
David Montgomery banked 13.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 34.7 | −0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 315 yd, 2 INT · 17 car, 61 yd, 3 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.1 | −0.2 | 89% | 90% | 43% | 54% | 9/16, 181 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 24.1 | +13.1 | 68% | 45% | 14% | 5% | 12 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 23.6 | +6.5 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 14/21, 152 yd, 2 TD · 15 car, 95 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 17.6 | +3.8 | 96% | 90% | 22% | 29% | 5/8, 126 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | +8.5 | 90% | 82% | 10% | 23% | 2/2, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Cole KmetTE · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | −0.8 | 100% | 85% | 24% | 11% | 4/5, 25 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −5.9 | 66% | 60% | 16% | 10% | 2 car, 4 yd · 4/6, 6 yd |
| Nsimba WebsterWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.6 | 17% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 3.4 | −3.3 | 40% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 3 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dante PettisWR · Featured Receiver | 2.3 | −3.2 | 80% | 76% | 19% | 7% | 1/4, 13 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 1.9 | −9.1 | 55% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 11 car, 42 yd · 1/1, -13 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 79% | 62% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Darrynton EvansRB | 0.9 | −0.2 | 27% | 39% | 0% | — | 2 car, 9 yd |
| Nathan PetermanQB | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trestan EbnerRB | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 40% | 40% | 5% | 5% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tyree JacksonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 25% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Velus JonesRB | -0.7 | −4.3 | 68% | 58% | 10% | 30% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/2, 3 yd |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to CHI 3 for 68 yards (9-J.Brisker).
Q4 5:35 · Eagles · 3rd & 6 at PHI 29 · gained 68 · +5.75 EP · +16.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles3
Bears0How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Eagles3Bears6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Eagles9Bears6Eagles10Bears6Eagles16Bears6Eagles17Bears6How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Eagles17Bears12Eagles17Bears13How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles23Bears13Eagles25Bears13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Eagles25Bears19Eagles25Bears20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/37 | 315 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 3 | +6.4 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 16 | 181 | 0 | 43% | +3.5 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 126 | 0 | 22% | +9.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Von Wallace | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14/21 | 152 | 2 | 0 | 6 | −3.7 |
| Nathan Peterman | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.9 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_PHI_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -8.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 16% | −7.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.1 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | -13 | 0 | 3% | −7.0 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kyzir White | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 0 | +1.9 |
| David Montgomery | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 10% | +4.4 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 14% | +4.7 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 24% | +0.1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 5% | +2.7 |
| Nsimba Webster | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14% | +0.4 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 19% | −3.6 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Morrow | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Thomas | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaylon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyler Gordon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevis Gipson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sanborn | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Pennel | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
