2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Soldier Field

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Chicago Bears

PHI -8.5 no coverU 48 ✓17°F · 17 mphEagles closed -8.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 25–20. Biggest swing: Q1 7:29, PHI +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:29PHI 0 — CHI 0PHI ball · 1st & 10PHI 87%

(7:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI 17. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 17 for no gain (11-A.Brown). Penalty on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:29PHI +12% win prob(7:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI 17. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 17 for no gain (11-A.Brown). Penalty on PHI-65-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 · 5:52PHI +10% win prob(5:52) 12-V.Jones left end to PHI 40 for 2 yards (29-A.Maddox; 57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), RECOVERED by PHI-7-H.Reddick at PHI 42. 7-H.Reddick to PHI 43 for 1 yard (18-D.Pettis).
Q4 · 5:35CHI +10% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to CHI 3 for 68 yards (9-J.Brisker).
Q2 · 5:29PHI +9% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left intended for 16-Q.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Houston-Carson at PHI 43. 36-D.Houston-Carson to PHI 25 for 18 yards (69-L.Dickerson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 11:54PHI Field goal
(11:54) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — CHI 0
Q2 · 6:52CHI Touchdown
(6:52) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — CHI 6
Q2 · 0:48PHI Touchdown
(:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — CHI 6
Q3 · 12:26PHI Touchdown
(12:26) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 17 — CHI 6
Q3 · 8:50CHI Touchdown
(8:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 17 — CHI 13
Q4 · 4:25PHI Touchdown
(4:25) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-96-A.Watts, Defensive Offside, declined. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PHI 25 — CHI 13
Q4 · 2:53CHI Touchdown
(2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 13-B.Pringle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 25 — CHI 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Bears
Offensive plays	70	57
Total yards	425 (edge)	249
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	43%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

22/37, 315 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

0.8 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

14/21, 152 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

15 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

17 att, 61 yds, 3 TD

6.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

9/16 for 181 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

5/8 for 126 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	11	52	6:01	Turnover on downs
2	PHI	PHI 32	4	28	1:40	Interception
3	CHI	CHI 17	8	8	4:40	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 35	4	0	0:30	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 29	5	14	2:17	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 19	9	77	3:02	Field goal +3
7	CHI	CHI 25	10	79	5:03	Touchdown +6
8	PHI	PHI 18	4	4	1:32	Interception
9	CHI	PHI 25	6	1	2:26	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 9	10	86	2:06	Touchdown +7
11	CHI	CHI 26	4	-7	0:43	End of half
12	PHI	CHI 42	8	42	2:41	Touchdown +7
13	CHI	CHI 25	5	-4	2:00	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 40	1	-13	0:12	Fumble
15	CHI	PHI 15	4	15	1:22	Touchdown +7
16	PHI	PHI 22	5	8	1:41	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 40	3	18	1:21	Fumble
18	PHI	PHI 43	5	24	2:41	Turnover on downs
19	CHI	CHI 33	4	7	0:59	Punt
20	PHI	PHI 4	19	76	8:38	Missed field goal
21	CHI	CHI 28	4	6	1:38	Punt
22	PHI	PHI 25	7	77	2:27	Touchdown +8
23	CHI	CHI 40	8	60	1:37	Touchdown +7
24	PHI	CHI 44	6	16	2:43	End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	22/37	315	0	2	1	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jalen Hurts	17	61	3.6	3	6.4
Miles Sanders	11	42	3.8	0	-1.6
Kenneth Gainwell	3	5	1.7	0	-0.7
Quez Watkins	2	4	2.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	9	16	181	43%	3.5
DeVonta Smith	5	8	126	22%	9.7
Kenneth Gainwell	2	2	9	5%	0.0
Quez Watkins	4	6	6	16%	-7.2
Jack Stoll	1	1	6	3%	0.2
Grant Calcaterra	0	2	0	5%	-1.1
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Miles Sanders	1	1	-13	3%	-7.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
K'Von Wallace	8	1	0.0	0
T.J. Edwards	4	4	0.0	0
Avonte Maddox	3	3	0.0	0
Marcus Epps	4	2	0.0	0
Kyzir White	2	3	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	3	1	2.0	1
Josh Sweat	3	1	2.0	0
Darius Slay	1	2	0.0	1
Javon Hargrave	2	1	2.0	0
Patrick Johnson	2	0	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	14/21	152	2	0	6	-3.7
Nathan Peterman	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Fields	15	95	6.3	0	1.9
David Montgomery	12	53	4.4	1	1.1
Darrynton Evans	2	9	4.5	0	-0.0
Velus Jones	1	0	0.0	0	-5.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Byron Pringle	2	2	39	1	10%	4.4
David Montgomery	3	3	38	1	14%	4.7
Cole Kmet	4	5	25	0	24%	0.1
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	20	0	5%	2.7
Nsimba Webster	2	3	14	0	14%	0.4
Dante Pettis	1	4	13	0	19%	-3.6
Velus Jones	1	2	3	0	10%	-1.0
Trestan Ebner	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nicholas Morrow	7	2	0.0	0	0
Jaquan Brisker	5	1	0.0	0	0
Joe Thomas	3	3	1.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	5	0	0.0	0	3
Jaylon Jones	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kyler Gordon	3	1	0.0	1	1
DeAndre Houston-Carson	4	0	0.0	1	1
Trevis Gipson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jack Sanborn	2	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Pennel	2	0	0.0	0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -8.5
Closing total: 48
PHI moneyline: -386
CHI moneyline: +323

Eagles closed -8.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 17°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: PHI 7 days · CHI 14 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Matt Eberflus

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.