2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -2.5 upsetO 36.5 ✓Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q1 1:10, CAR +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:10PIT 7 — CAR 0CAR ball · 3rd & 13PIT 65%

(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to PIT 7 for 40 yards (42-J.Pierre).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:10CAR +14% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to PIT 7 for 40 yards (42-J.Pierre).
Q2 · 10:12CAR +10% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 14-G.Pickens ran ob at CAR 18 for 38 yards.
Q3 · 2:36CAR +7% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard to PIT 32 for 45 yards (23-D.Kazee; 20-C.Sutton).
Q1 · 3:43CAR +7% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 14 yards (20-C.Sutton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:53PIT Touchdown
(5:53) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — CAR 0
Q2 · 14:19CAR Touchdown
(14:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — CAR 7
Q2 · 8:24PIT Touchdown
(8:24) 72-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 14 — CAR 7
Q3 · 3:20PIT Touchdown
(3:20) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 21 — CAR 7
Q4 · 11:57CAR Field goal
(11:57) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: PIT 21 — CAR 10
Q4 · 6:19CAR Field goal
(6:19) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: PIT 21 — CAR 13
Q4 · 1:09PIT Field goal
(1:09) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 24 — CAR 13
Q4 · 0:23CAR Field goal
(:23) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: PIT 24 — CAR 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Panthers
Offensive plays	67	42
Total yards	326 (edge)	209
Yards per play	4.9	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	52% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	34%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.55
Third downs	12/16 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

14/23, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.7 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

17/22, 179 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

24 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

11 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

10/10 for 98 yds, 0 TD

48% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

5/6 for 73 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	5	8	2:06	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 33	13	67	7:06	Touchdown +7
3	CAR	CAR 15	13	90	6:36	Touchdown +7
4	PIT	PIT 25	12	75	5:52	Touchdown +7
5	CAR	CAR 25	5	7	2:00	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 30	4	5	1:38	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 27	4	-9	1:06	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 33	6	23	2:09	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 20	4	8	0:45	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 9	1	8	0:42	End of half
11	PIT	PIT 9	23	106	11:43	Touchdown +7
12	CAR	CAR 25	12	49	6:25	Field goal +3
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	-6	1:31	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 27	7	27	4:06	Field goal +3
15	PIT	PIT 25	14	48	5:11	Field goal +3
16	CAR	CAR 37	6	29	0:45	Field goal +3
17	PIT	CAR 43	2	0	0:19	End of game

8 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 106 scrimmage yards over 23 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	17/22	179	0	0	1	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	24	86	3.6	1	1.7
Jaylen Warren	11	38	3.5	1	0.1
Steven Sims	2	19	9.5	0	1.1
Mitchell Trubisky	6	9	1.5	1	1.1
Diontae Johnson	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Derek Watt	1	2	2.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	10	10	98	48%	11.4
George Pickens	2	5	53	24%	2.7
Jaylen Warren	1	1	11	5%	0.7
Steven Sims	1	2	10	10%	-0.7
Zach Gentry	1	1	4	5%	-0.0
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	3	5%	-0.3
Miles Boykin	1	1	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	6	1	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	3	2	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	0	0.0	0
Devin Bush	2	2	0.0	0
James Pierre	1	2	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	1	1.0	0
Cameron Heyward	1	1	1.5	0
T.J. Watt	1	1	1.5	0
Cameron Sutton	1	1	0.0	1
Levi Wallace	2	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	14/23	225	1	0	4	9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	4	10	2.5	-1.5
D'Onta Foreman	10	9	0.9	-5.7
Sam Darnold	2	2	1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	6	73	1	32%	8.0
Chuba Hubbard	3	3	57	0	16%	3.2
Terrace Marshall	3	3	51	0	16%	3.8
Shi Smith	1	3	24	0	16%	0.2
Tommy Tremble	2	3	20	0	16%	0.9
Laviska Shenault Jr.	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	8	3	0.0	1
Shaq Thompson	6	5	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	3	6	1.0	0
Keith Taylor	6	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	3	0.0	0
Matt Ioannidis	3	2	0.0	1
Xavier Woods	3	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	1	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	1	2	0.0	0
Jaycee Horn	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -2.5
Closing total: 36.5
PIT moneyline: +130
CAR moneyline: -145

Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 40 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: PIT 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Steve Wilks