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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 18, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q1 1:10, 3rd and 13, on Terrace Marshall — 13.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q1 1:10, Panthers +13.7% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:10 · 3rd and 13
Terrace Marshall
Panthers
(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to PIT 7 for 40 yards (42-J.Pierre).
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.55 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 12 of 16 on third down, against Panthers at 4 of 11 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to PIT 7 for 40 yards (42-J.Pierre).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaylen Warren's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 8:24 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryPanthers
Steelers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 67 snaps at a 34% dropback rate against Panthers’s 42 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Panthers 3.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 27.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
PIT's pass rate over expected, −14.5 pts, is past their previous low of −8.4 pts in week 11 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-14.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.8 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 67 snaps
Panthers-11.8 ptsright on their number · −3.4 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 42 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Steelers27.5%leaned — ran early · −24.4 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 51 early downs
Panthers54.8%right on their number · +5.2 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 31 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 56%
Tendencies room →Steelers21.7%leaned — faked the run · +8.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers29.6%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -45% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Steelers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −18.3 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers37.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers30.4%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Steelers18.5%leaned — got home · +5.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers8.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
PIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 27.5%, 24.4 points below their season mean of 51.8% and 2.0 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 3
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
14/23, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.7 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
17/22, 179 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
10.4 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
10/10 for 98 yds, 0 TD
48% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
D.J. Moore banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.0 | +5.9 | 74% | 96% | 48% | 43% | 1 car, 2 yd · 10/10, 98 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +7.7 | 96% | 96% | 32% | 52% | 5/6, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 14.6 | +0.6 | 66% | 57% | 0% | — | 24 car, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Starter QB | 14.1 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/22, 179 yd · 6 car, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 13.2 | +3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 225 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 11.9 | +3.1 | 34% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 11 car, 38 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 9.7 | +3.2 | 63% | 75% | 16% | 0% | 4 car, 10 yd · 3/3, 57 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +3.9 | 89% | 86% | 16% | 18% | 3/3, 51 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −0.1 | 66% | 96% | 24% | 49% | 2/5, 53 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.2 | 52% | 54% | 16% | 8% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.1 | 43% | 65% | 10% | 11% | 2 car, 19 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.6 | 46% | 57% | 16% | 11% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 62% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 28% | 22% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.3 | 37% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Bell Cow Back | 0.9 | −7.9 | 30% | 11% | 0% | — | 10 car, 9 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | 32% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 28% | 21% | 5% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to PIT 7 for 40 yards (42-J.Pierre).
Q1 1:10 · Panthers · 3rd & 13 at PIT 47 · gained 40 · +4.13 EP · +13.3% win probability
143 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 129. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 91 yards from the PIT 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers6
Panthers0Steelers7Panthers0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers7Panthers6Steelers7Panthers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers13Panthers7Steelers14Panthers7Steelers20Panthers7Steelers21Panthers7Steelers21Panthers10Steelers21Panthers13Steelers24Panthers13Steelers24Panthers16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 17/22 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +10.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 24 | 86 | 3.6 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 1 | +0.1 |
| Steven Sims |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 10 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 48% | +11.4 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/23 | 225 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +9.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_PIT_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 40 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 19 |
| 9.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| +2.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.7 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Sutton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 5 | 6 | 73 | 1 | 32% | +8.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 16% | +3.2 |
| Terrace Marshall | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 16% | +3.8 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 16% | +0.2 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 16% | +0.9 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaq Thompson | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Littleton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
