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2022 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 15, 2022 · Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

21

Seattle Seahawks

13

SF -3 ✓U 43 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 21–13. Biggest swing: Q2 1:08, SF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑SF ↓
Q2 · 1:08SF 7 — SEA 3SEA ball · 2nd & 5SF 72%

(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer to SEA 41 for 6 yards (1-J.Ward, 57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), RECOVERED by SF-7-C.Ward at SEA 46. 7-C.Ward pushed ob at SEA 6 for 40 yards

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:08SF +13% win prob(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer to SEA 41 for 6 yards (1-J.Ward, 57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), RECOVERED by SF-7-C.Ward at SEA 46. 7-C.Ward pushed ob at SEA 6 for 40 yards (72-A.Lucas).
  2. Q2 · 7:34SEA +7% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 39 for 18 yards (29-T.Hufanga).
  3. Q1 · 6:37SEA +7% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings to SEA 41 for 8 yards (6-Q.Diggs).
  4. Q1 · 3:56SEA +6% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:56SF Touchdown

    (3:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 0
  2. Q2 · 4:52SEA Field goal

    (4:52) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SF 7 — SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 0:49SF Touchdown

    (:49) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — SEA 3
  4. Q3 · 14:12SF Touchdown

    (14:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — SEA 3
  5. Q3 · 8:13SEA Field goal

    (8:13) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SF 21 — SEA 6
  6. Q4 · 3:39SEA Touchdown

    (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 21 — SEA 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersSeahawks
Offensive plays5861
Total yards384 (edge)277
Yards per play6.6 (edge)4.5
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)-0.24
Success rate41% (edge)39%
Dropback rate48%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.25 (edge)-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.16 (edge)-0.17
Third downs6/13 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1516 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

31/44, 238 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.2 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

17/26, 217 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

26 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

12 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

4/5 for 93 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

7/9 for 68 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 35772:06Punt
2SFSF 10491:57Punt
3SEASEA 35431:44Punt
4SFSF 1410865:24Touchdown +7
5SEASEA 325-81:32Punt
6SF504132:26Punt
7SEASEA 25491:30Punt
8SFSF 247332:44Punt
9SEASEA 1812675:50Field goal +3
10SFSF 25862:59Punt
11SEASEA 194220:52Fumble
12SFSEA 6360:09Touchdown +7
13SEASEA 305160:39Punt
14SFSF 20100:08End of half
15SFSF 414591:00Touchdown +7
16SEASEA 2511385:52Field goal +3
17SFSF 2810325:37Punt
18SEASEA 411524:25Punt
19SFSF 17142:28Punt
20SEASEA 46441:04Punt
21SFSF 228534:34Missed field goal
22SEASEA 338671:25Touchdown +7
23SFSF 259733:35End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy17/262172016.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey261084.210.8
Jordan Mason46416.004.0
Brock Purdy4-2-0.50-5.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle4593219%7.8
Jauan Jennings3531019%2.6
Christian McCaffrey6830031%-2.5
Tyler Kroft112804%1.9
Brandon Aiyuk2419015%-1.9
Ray-Ray McCloud1316012%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Deommodore Lenoir910.000
Dre Greenlaw340.002
Fred Warner420.000
Talanoa Hufanga411.001
Tashaun Gipson320.000
Charvarius Ward400.002
Azeez Al-Shaair210.000
Jimmie Ward300.000
Nick Bosa111.001
Janoris Jenkins200.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith31/44238103-8.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker12473.90-1.9
Geno Smith11818.002.6
Travis Homer155.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Lockett7968022%2.9
DK Metcalf7955022%0.4
Kenneth Walker4532012%-0.4
Noah Fant5632115%1.3
Travis Homer4425010%-7.8
Will Dissly111302%0.6
Marquise Goodwin2510012%-1.6
Penny Hart11302%-0.1
Colby Parkinson01002%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cody Barton440.000
Jordyn Brooks350.000
Quandre Diggs340.001
Uchenna Nwosu420.000
Tanner Muse130.000
Ryan Neal220.001
Michael Jackson210.000
Tariq Woolen210.000
Bruce Irvin210.000
L.J. Collier110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -3
Closing total
43
SF moneyline
-169
SEA moneyline
+152

49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 43; the game landed 34 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
SF 4 days · SEA 4 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.