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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 15, 2022 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 15
It turned at Q2 1:08, 2nd and 5, on Travis Homer — 13.5 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:08 · 2nd and 5
Travis Homer
49ers
(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer to SEA 41 for 6 yards (1-J.Ward, 57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), RECOVERED by SF-7-C.Ward at SEA 46. 7-C.Ward pushed ob at SEA 6 for 40 yards (72-A.Lucas).
San Francisco 49ers 21–13. Biggest swing: Q2 1:08, 49ers +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.24 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.17 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer to SEA 41 for 6 yards (1-J.Ward, 57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), RECOVERED by SF-7-C.Ward at SEA 46. 7-C.Ward pushed ob at SEA 6 for 40 yards
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Kittle's 28-yard touchdown catch with 3:56 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
George Kittle28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+77–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 58 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 61 at 79%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Seahawks 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's blitz rate sent, 3.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
SEA's play-action rate, 12.5%, is past their previous low of 15.0% in week 10 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-0.6 ptsright on their number · +3.5 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 58 snaps
Seahawks6.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 89%
Tendencies room →49ers37.8%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 45 early downs
Seahawks75.0%leaned — passed early · +15.1 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.36× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 47%
Tendencies room →49ers17.9%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks12.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.4 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 98%
Fourth Down room →49ers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.8 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 49%
Tendencies room →49ers22.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Seahawks3.6%leaned — sat back · −15.8 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers18.8%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Seahawks10.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
SEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.6%, 15.8 points below their season mean of 19.3% and 1.4 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
31/44, 238 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.2 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Passing · SF
17/26, 217 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.7 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
George Kittle banked 16.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.8 | −1.1 | 89% | 96% | 31% | 4% | 26 car, 108 yd, 1 TD · 6/8, 30 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 25.3 | +16.6 | 84% | 93% | 19% | 34% | 4/5, 93 yd, 2 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | +7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 217 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, -2 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | +1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/44, 238 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 18 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +4.6 | 52% | 48% | 15% | 14% | 5/6, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 13.8 | +0.3 | 89% | 92% | 22% | 38% | 7/9, 68 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 12.5 | −0.4 | 95% | 96% | 22% | 30% | 7/9, 55 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.9 | −0.9 | 75% | 71% | 12% | 0% | 12 car, 47 yd · 4/5, 32 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 6.4 | +4.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −2.1 | 84% | 82% | 19% | 23% | 3/5, 31 yd |
| Travis HomerRB | 5.0 | −0.6 | 25% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/4, 25 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −2.6 | 97% | 96% | 15% | 26% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.7 | 22% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 1/1, 28 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −3.1 | 59% | 63% | 12% | 11% | 2/5, 10 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.3 | 42% | 57% | 12% | 3% | 1/3, 16 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.8 | 58% | 52% | 2% | 4% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Penny HartWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 39% | 38% | 2% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Danny GrayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer to SEA 41 for 6 yards (1-J.Ward, 57-D.Greenlaw). FUMBLES (57-D.Greenlaw), RECOVERED by SF-7-C.Ward at SEA 46. 7-C.Ward pushed ob at SEA 6 for 40 yards (72-A.Lucas).
Q2 1:08 · Seahawks · 2nd & 5 at SEA 35 · gained 6 · -6.27 EP · −16.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 86 yards from the SF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Seahawks049ers7Seahawks049ers7Seahawks3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
49ers13Seahawks349ers14Seahawks349ers20Seahawks349ers21Seahawks349ers21Seahawks649ers21Seahawks1249ers21Seahawks13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/26 | 217 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 26 | 108 | 4.2 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 93 | 2 | 19% | +7.8 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 19% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deommodore Lenoir | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Fred Warner | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 31/44 | 238 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_15_SF_SEA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 43; the game landed 34 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 31% | −2.5 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | −1.9 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 47 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| −1.9 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 22% | +2.9 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 22% | +0.4 |
| Kenneth Walker | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 12% | −0.4 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Travis Homer | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10% | −7.8 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 12% | −1.6 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2% | −0.1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Muse | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Irvin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L.J. Collier | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
