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Tennessee Titans 14 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Chargers -3 pushU 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers 17, Titans 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:32, 2nd and 4, on Mike Williams — 20.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:32 · 2nd and 4
Mike Williams
Chargers
(:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to TEN 20 for 35 yards (32-G.Mabin).
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Los Angeles Chargers 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:32, Chargers +20.6% win probability on one snap.
20.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kevin ByardTitansQ3 5:29(5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 17. 31-K.Byard to TEN 20 for 3 yards (30-A.Ekeler). Penalty on LAC-71-M.Feiler, Offensive Holding, declined.
11.9pts
Cameron DickerChargersQ4 0:08(:08) 15-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
14.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Chargers at 5 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Titans164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to TEN 20 for 35 yards (32-G.Mabin).
Swing +20.6 for ChargersExpected points +1.78 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:32LAC +21% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to TEN 20 for 35 yards (32-G.Mabin).
4th · 0:08LAC +15% win prob(:08) 15-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
3rd · 5:29TEN +12% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 17. 31-K.Byard to TEN 20 for 3 yards (30-A.Ekeler). Penalty on LAC-71-M.Feiler, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 14:19TEN +10% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at LAC 33 for -9 yards (94-C.Rumph).
2nd · 10:13LAC +10% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:51LAC +10% win prob(:51) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 43-yard field goal with 0:08 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:08Cameron Dicker·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+314–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryChargers
Titans2–6Chargers
285Total yards365
5.1Yards per play5.4
43%Success rate52%
27%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays5
17First downs21
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Titans: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.07Chargers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Titans: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.17Chargers: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Titans: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.13Chargers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 56 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Chargers’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Chargers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.3% in week 14 against 18.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
LAC's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.8 pts in week 14 against +1.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chargers15.6%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's blitz rate sent, 27.9% against a season mean of 20.9% — and TEN swings 9.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%62 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%62 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%62 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Full-time84%52 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Full-time82%51 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
71Dennis DaleyT · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation60%37 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
19Chris ConleyWR · Heavy rotation50%31 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Rotational48%30 snaps
62Corey LevinC · Rotational29%18 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Situational24%15 snaps
13Racey McMathWR · Situational23%14 snaps
25Hassan HaskinsRB · Situational19%12 snaps
7Malik WillisQB · Situational16%10 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational13%8 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Kristian FultonCBTre AveryCBDenico AutryDETeair TartDTAmani HookerFSJordan RoosGTreylon BurksWR
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
68Jamaree SalyerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Trey PipkinsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Zion JohnsonG · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Matt FeilerG · Every snap100%71 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Full-time89%63 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation69%49 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Heavy rotation65%46 snaps
7Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation62%44 snaps
25Joshua KelleyRB · Rotational35%25 snaps
88Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational32%23 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Rotational31%22 snaps
1DeAndre CarterWR · Situational23%16 snaps
40Zander HorvathRB · Situational3%2 snaps
76Will ClappC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Christopher HintonDTJ.T. WoodsFSDerwin JamesFSEaston StickQBSony MichelRBStorm NortonTMichael BandyWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to TEN 20 for 35 yards (32-G.Mabin).
Q4 0:32 · Chargers · 2nd & 4 at LAC 45 · gained 35 · +1.78 EP · +16.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 74 yards from the TEN 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
40%
Yards
649
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2778%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1469%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3636%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0946%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.6214%
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5-1.1660%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt6 plays
Titans0Chargers6
Titans0Chargers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Titans 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 49
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 21
Titans6Chargers7
Titans7Chargers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Chargers 4
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 43
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Titans 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Titans 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 29
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Titans 44
Intercepted2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 27
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 46
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 15
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Chargers 25
4th quarter59 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
No good3 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 24
Titans7Chargers13
Titans7Chargers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Titans 3
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Titans 45
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 41
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 20
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back and four tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxTen defenders
Titans13Chargers14
Titans14Chargers14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Chargers 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Titans14Chargers17
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Titans 20
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
46.5
Titans moneyline
+142
Chargers moneyline
-158
Chargers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 31 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Titans 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Brandon Staley
4th · 1:07
LAC +9% win prob
(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to LAC 4 for 17 yards (24-N.Adderley).
2nd · 0:12TEN +9% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 81-M.Williams INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Kalu (21-R.McCreary) at TEN -3. Touchback.
