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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q1 10:43, 1st and 10, on Sammy Watkins — 9.5 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 17–9. Biggest swing: Q1 10:43, Ravens +9.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:43 · 1st and 10
Sammy Watkins
Ravens
(10:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 82-S.Watkins to ATL 10 for 40 yards (34-D.Hall).
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(10:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 82-S.Watkins to ATL 10 for 40 yards (34-D.Hall).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Tucker's 21-yard field goal with 8:05 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Justin Tucker21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+30–3Demarcus Robinson6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyler Huntley · two-point good+80–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 68 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Ravens’s 49 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Ravens 4.
Falcons outgained Ravens 327-304 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 4.5% in week 9 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
18 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate, 27.0%, is past their previous low of 31.1% in week 7 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 57.1%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 11 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 16.
7 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.8 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 15 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-16.1 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 68 snaps
Ravens-18.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.2 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Falcons48.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 50 early downs
Ravens27.0%leaned — ran early · −23.8 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.86× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 66%
Tendencies room →Falcons37.8%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens33.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Falcons57.1%leaned — went for it · +32.3 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens0.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.5 vs their 34.5%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Falcons11.1%inside their normal wobble · −12.2 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
Ravens35.1%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 30%
Tendencies room →Falcons0.0%off script — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−2.17× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
Ravens8.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
ATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 10.9 points below their season mean of 10.9% and 2.2 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
22/33, 218 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
9/17, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.7 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Demarcus Robinson banked 4.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 15.7 | −7.0 | 59% | 59% | 16% | 0% | 18 car, 74 yd · 4/5, 43 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | −0.1 | 77% | 86% | 29% | 54% | 7/9, 96 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Starter QB | 13.2 | −9.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 9/17, 115 yd, 1 TD · 11 car, 26 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | +3.2 | 40% | 22% | 0% | — | 11 car, 99 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −6.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 218 yd · 4 car, 8 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +4.7 | 54% | 44% | 6% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.5 | −0.5 | 81% | 100% | 31% | 20% | 3/5, 45 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −3.8 | 42% | 44% | 6% | 1% | 12 car, 59 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −3.2 | 92% | 95% | 23% | 20% | 4/7, 18 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 5.0 | −1.0 | 17% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 16 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +3.4 | 33% | 44% | 6% | 13% | 1/1, 40 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 4.1 | −1.6 | 37% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 17 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.8 | 21% | 27% | 10% | 6% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.2 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 22% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.6 | 29% | 44% | 13% | 22% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 62% | 51% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Featured Receiver | 1.6 | −4.0 | 81% | 61% | 19% | 36% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 1.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.3 | 25% | 44% | 13% | 5% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 51% | 54% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nick BoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andy IsabellaWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| James ProcheWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 82-S.Watkins to ATL 10 for 40 yards (34-D.Hall).
Q1 10:43 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at 50 · gained 40 · +2.25 EP · +9.9% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 73 yards from the ATL 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Ravens3Falcons0Ravens6Falcons0Ravens12Falcons0Ravens14Falcons3Ravens14Falcons6Ravens14Falcons6Ravens17Falcons9Ravens17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 22/33 | 218 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Avery Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 | 29% | +4.5 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Grant | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdullah Anderson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 9/17 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_ATL_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 35; the game landed 26 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −3.3 |
| +3.0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 23% | −1.2 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Troy Andersen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Dalton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timmy Horne | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 99 | 9.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 31% | +2.0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 6% | +2.2 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 13% | +0.5 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 19% | −2.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6% | +3.0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 13% | −2.2 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 0 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Broderick Washington | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Mack | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
