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2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

9

Baltimore RavensWinner

17

BAL -6.5 ✓U 35 ✓17°F

Baltimore Ravens 17–9. Biggest swing: Q1 10:43, BAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑ATL ↓
Q1 · 10:43ATL 0 — BAL 0BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 71%

(10:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 82-S.Watkins to ATL 10 for 40 yards (34-D.Hall).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 10:43BAL +10% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 82-S.Watkins to ATL 10 for 40 yards (34-D.Hall).
  2. Q2 · 14:54BAL +7% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 15 for 36 yards (27-R.Grant).
  3. Q1 · 8:05ATL +6% win prob(8:05) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
  4. Q1 · 3:48ATL +5% win prob(3:48) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-A.Ogundeji), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout, recovered by BAL-86-N.Boyle at ATL 40.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:05BAL Field goal

    (8:05) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — BAL 3
  2. Q2 · 12:46BAL Field goal

    (12:46) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — BAL 6
  3. Q2 · 2:27BAL Touchdown

    (2:27) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 10-D.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — BAL 14
  4. Q2 · 0:05ATL Field goal

    (:05) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — BAL 14
  5. Q3 · 7:06ATL Field goal

    (7:06) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 6 — BAL 14
  6. Q4 · 14:13BAL Field goal

    (14:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: ATL 6 — BAL 17
  7. Q4 · 2:07ATL Field goal

    (2:07) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 9 — BAL 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsRavens
Offensive plays6849
Total yards327 (edge)304
Yards per play4.86.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.150.01 (edge)
Success rate37%45% (edge)
Dropback rate54%37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.220.08 (edge)
Third downs5/144/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)58 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)16
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Falcons outgained Ravens 327–304 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

22/33, 218 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

9/17, 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

11 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

18 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

7/9 for 96 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

3/5 for 45 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 286191:58Punt
2ATLATL 12492:19Punt
3BAL505472:41Field goal +3
4ATLATL 305-61:30Punt
5BALBAL 436202:49Missed field goal
6ATLATL 406162:58Turnover on downs
7BALBAL 447473:03Field goal +3
8ATLATL 337413:33Fumble
9BALBAL 3014726:46Touchdown +8
10ATLATL 3212772:23Field goal +3
11ATLATL 2118677:59Field goal +3
12BALBAL 237183:44Punt
13ATLATL 22451:35Punt
14BALBAL 426552:32Field goal +3
15ATLATL 2514737:31Turnover on downs
16BALBAL 25151:40Punt
17ATLATL 479452:56Field goal +3
18BALBAL 286112:03End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 77 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Desmond Ridder22/332180023.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier18744.10-1.3
Cordarrelle Patterson8172.10-4.8
Avery Williams3165.300.9
Desmond Ridder482.00-3.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London7996029%4.5
Tyler Allgeier4543016%3.0
Olamide Zaccheaus4718023%-1.2
Damiere Byrd121506%-1.8
Cordarrelle Patterson111403%0.6
Avery Williams221406%1.5
Anthony Firkser2310010%-2.1
Parker Hesse11803%0.5
MyCole Pruitt01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Richie Grant730.000
Rashaan Evans240.000
Abdullah Anderson220.000
Troy Andersen220.000
Jalen Dalton300.000
Jaylinn Hawkins210.000
Adetokunbo Ogundeji210.000
Timmy Horne210.000
Lorenzo Carter120.000
KhaDarel Hodge110.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Huntley9/17115100-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards11999.002.4
J.K. Dobbins12594.90-0.0
Tyler Huntley11262.40-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews3545031%2.0
Sammy Watkins114006%2.2
DeSean Jackson1210013%0.5
Josh Oliver136019%-2.0
Demarcus Robinson11616%3.0
Isaiah Likely124013%-2.2
Justice Hill11406%-1.0
J.K. Dobbins01006%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith570.000
Patrick Queen080.501
Marlon Humphrey700.000
Nnamdi Madubuike421.000
Chuck Clark240.001
Broderick Washington230.000
Brandon Stephens220.500
Travis Jones220.000
Isaiah Mack120.000
Odafe Oweh300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Closing total
35
ATL moneyline
+238
BAL moneyline
-274

Ravens closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 35; the game landed 26 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
17°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
ATL 6 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs John Harbaugh