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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q2 0:56, 4th and 10, on Tyler Bass — 12.4 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 35–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:56, Bears +12.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:56 · 4th and 10
Tyler Bass
Bears
(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Devin Singletary's 33-yard rushing touchdown with 10:59 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Gabe Davis19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide right+66–7Devin Singletary33-yd TD run33-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+814–108 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryBears
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 59 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Bears 4.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate, 38.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
BUF's blitz rate sent turned over: 30.3% in week 15 against 6.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.4% in week 15 against 9.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 27 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-1.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.1 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 58 snaps
Bears-14.0 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 86%
Tendencies room →Bills45.7%leaned — ran early · −14.9 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 46 early downs
Bears47.6%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Bills38.7%off script — faked the run · +18.9 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+2.27× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bears21.9%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
Bears60.0%leaned — went for it · +22.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±18.7 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 54%
Tendencies room →Bills6.3%inside their normal wobble · −10.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears12.9%right on their number · −6.8 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 29%
Tendencies room →Bills12.5%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears9.4%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
BUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 18.9 points above their season mean of 19.8% and 2.3 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
15/26, 172 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
2.6 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
15/23, 119 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.5 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Devin Singletary banked 10.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | +3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/26, 172 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 20.5 | +10.3 | 58% | 59% | 12% | 3% | 12 car, 106 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 19 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 17.8 | +8.9 | 41% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 11 car, 99 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Featured Receiver | 12.8 | +3.7 | 75% | 72% | 20% | 19% | 3/5, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Gabe DavisWR | 11.5 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −4.8 | 67% | 64% | 16% | 3% | 16 car, 62 yd · 4/4, 22 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −4.1 | 92% | — | 0% | — | 15/23, 119 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 11 yd |
| Dante PettisWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | +1.2 | 73% | 82% | 20% | 21% | 2/5, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Cole KmetTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | −0.5 | 95% | 91% | 24% | 10% | 5/6, 27 yd |
| Velus JonesRB · Receiving Back | 7.2 | +1.7 | 46% | 55% | 16% | 50% | 2/4, 52 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +2.3 | 86% | 91% | 8% | 19% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +1.3 | 67% | 81% | 8% | 9% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.0 | 39% | 41% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB · Receiving Back | 2.3 | −4.5 | 41% | 42% | 12% | 0% | 6 car, 7 yd · 2/3, -4 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 2.2 | +0.8 | 23% | 22% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 2.1 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 27% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −3.8 | 36% | 31% | 8% | 20% | 1 car, 6 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 34% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nathan PetermanQB | -1.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook).
Q2 13:10 · Bills · 2nd & 19 at CHI 28 · gained nothing · -4.83 EP · −20.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 86 yards from the BUF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills0
Bears6Bills0Bears7Bills6Bears7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bills6Bears10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bills12Bears10Bills14Bears10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bills20Bears10Bills21Bears10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Bills21Bears13Bills27Bears13Bills28Bears13Bills34Bears13Bills35Bears13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/26 | 172 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 106 | 8.8 | 1 | +5.4 |
| James Cook | 11 | 99 | 9.0 | 1 | +5.4 |
| Josh Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 24% | −2.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Siran Neal |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/23 | 119 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −8.5 |
| Nathan Peterman | 3/5 | 25 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_BUF_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 40; the game landed 48 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 20.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 6 |
| 41 |
| 6.8 |
| 1 |
| +4.9 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +4.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 8% | +2.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12% | +1.5 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| James Cook | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −4.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −5.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Damar Hamlin | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ed Oliver | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shaq Lawson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Settle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 | −7.9 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Khalil Herbert | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velus Jones | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 16% | −1.7 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 24% | −0.7 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 16% | +2.8 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 20% | −2.2 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −2.9 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 12% | −3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Morrow | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyler Gordon | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joe Thomas | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Blackwell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Lee | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Adams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevis Gipson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Hicks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
