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Buffalo Bills 35, Bears 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:56, 4th and 10, on Tyler Bass — 12.4 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:56 · 4th and 10
Tyler Bass
Bears
(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
10°F · 20.8 mph
Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 22.
Buffalo Bills 35–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:56, Bears +12.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler GordonBearsQ2 13:10(13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook).
12.2pts
Devin SingletaryBillsQ3 10:59(10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 12 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Bills154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Swing +12.4 for BearsExpected points +3.18 for BearsThe model had Bears 28 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:56BUF +12% win prob(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
2nd · 13:10BUF +12% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook).
3rd · 10:59CHI +9% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:58CHI +9% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 1 for 28 yards (21-J.Poyer, 49-T.Edmunds).
3rd · 8:49BUF +8% win prob(8:49) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CHI 34 for no gain (30-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (30-D.Jackson), RECOVERED by BUF-99-T.Settle at CHI 35. 99-T.Settle to CHI 35 for no gain (79-M.Schofield).
1st · 7:18CHI +7% win prob(7:18) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook left tackle to CHI 19 for 24 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson, 31-Ja.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devin Singletary's 33-yard rushing touchdown with 10:59 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Bills: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.43Bears: −0.43 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Bills: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.31Bears: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.57Bears: −0.57 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 59 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Bears 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's play-action rate, 38.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 30.2% in week 15.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
BUF's blitz rate sent turned over: 30.3% in week 15 against 6.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.4% in week 15 against 9.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears9.4%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 18.9 points above their season mean of 19.8% and 2.3 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook).
Q2 13:10 · Bills · 2nd & 19 at CHI 28 · gained nothing · -4.83 EP · −20.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 86 yards from the BUF 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.4560%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1853%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0344%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.4088%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8-0.140%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.9229%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.9817%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Bills0Bears6
Bills0Bears7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bills 1
Bills6Bears7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bears 19
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bills 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Bears 37
2nd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 19
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 46
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Bills 4
Bills6Bears10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 19
No good9 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Bears 20
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills12Bears10
Bills14Bears10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bears 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
Bills20Bears10
Bills21Bears10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 27
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 13
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bears 44
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 15
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 17
Bills21Bears13
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 17
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 17
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 25
Bills27Bears13
Bills28Bears13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 44 to the Bears 4
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Bills34Bears13
Bills35Bears13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 13
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 25 to midfield
The period ended2 plays, from the Bears 43 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
