2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Soldier Field

Buffalo BillsWinner

Chicago Bears

BUF -8 ✓O 40 ✓7°F · 17 mphBills closed -8 and covered, winning by 22.

Buffalo Bills 35–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:56, BUF +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:56BUF 6 — CHI 10BUF ball · 4th & 10BUF 70%

(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:56BUF +12% win prob(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q2 · 13:10BUF +12% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook).
Q3 · 10:59CHI +9% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:58CHI +9% win prob(11:58) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 1 for 28 yards (21-J.Poyer, 49-T.Edmunds).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:46CHI Touchdown
(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-D.Pettis for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — CHI 7
Q1 · 6:28BUF Touchdown
(6:28) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — CHI 7
Q2 · 3:25CHI Field goal
(3:25) 2-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — CHI 10
Q3 · 10:59BUF Touchdown
(10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — CHI 10
Q3 · 8:03BUF Touchdown
(8:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook right tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 21 — CHI 10
Q4 · 10:23CHI Field goal
(10:23) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: BUF 21 — CHI 13
Q4 · 3:51BUF Touchdown
(3:51) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 28 — CHI 13
Q4 · 1:08BUF Touchdown
(1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 35 — CHI 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Bears
Offensive plays	59	58
Total yards	428 (edge)	209
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.43
Success rate	51% (edge)	29%
Dropback rate	54%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.57
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/26, 172 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.6 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

15/23, 119 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.5 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

12 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

11 att, 99 yds, 1 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Velus JonesRB

2/4 for 52 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -1.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

3/6 for 45 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · -2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 36	10	74	5:19	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 29	8	86	3:19	Touchdown +6
3	CHI	CHI 42	8	25	3:38	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 34	7	48	4:51	Interception
5	CHI	CHI 34	6	10	2:43	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 2	4	3	2:17	Punt
7	CHI	BUF 38	8	13	4:32	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 34	9	46	2:30	Missed field goal
9	CHI	CHI 28	2	-1	0:51	End of half
10	BUF	BUF 14	10	88	4:09	Touchdown +8
11	CHI	CHI 25	5	3	2:07	Fumble
12	BUF	CHI 35	4	35	0:47	Touchdown +7
13	CHI	CHI 25	5	5	1:26	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 33	4	13	2:08	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 11	4	2	1:46	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 38	4	29	2:13	Fumble
17	CHI	CHI 33	5	53	2:25	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	BUF 14	2	3	0:46	Interception
19	CHI	BUF 18	4	1	1:54	Field goal +3
20	BUF	BUF 16	5	1	1:06	Punt
21	CHI	CHI 21	4	3	1:52	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 44	9	56	3:36	Touchdown +7
23	CHI	CHI 25	5	-4	1:37	Turnover on downs
24	BUF	CHI 20	5	20	1:06	Touchdown +7
25	CHI	CHI 25	6	25	1:02	Interception

8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/26	172	2	2	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	12	106	8.8	1	5.4
James Cook	11	99	9.0	1	5.4
Josh Allen	6	41	6.8	1	4.9
Isaiah McKenzie	1	6	6.0	0	0.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	3	6	45	1	24%	-2.2
Dawson Knox	3	5	38	1	20%	4.1
Stefon Diggs	2	2	26	0	8%	2.5
Devin Singletary	2	3	19	0	12%	1.5
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	12	0	4%	0.9
James Cook	1	2	9	0	8%	-4.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	9	0	8%	0.9
Cole Beasley	1	1	9	0	4%	0.1
Khalil Shakir	1	1	5	0	4%	1.1
Isaiah McKenzie	0	2	0	0	8%	-5.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	5	4	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	4	1	0.0	1
Siran Neal	3	2	0.0	0
Damar Hamlin	3	2	0.0	0
Matt Milano	3	2	0.0	1
Ed Oliver	4	0	1.0	2
Shaq Lawson	3	1	0.0	0
DaQuan Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	2	0	0.0	0
Tim Settle	1	1	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	15/23	119	1	0	2	-8.5
Nathan Peterman	3/5	25	0	1	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	16	62	3.9	-7.9
Justin Fields	7	11	1.6	-4.6
Khalil Herbert	6	7	1.2	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Velus Jones	2	4	52	0	16%	-1.7
Byron Pringle	2	2	34	0	8%	1.7
Cole Kmet	5	6	27	0	24%	-0.7
David Montgomery	4	4	22	0	16%	2.8
Dante Pettis	2	5	11	1	20%	-2.2
Ryan Griffin	1	1	2	0	4%	-2.9
Khalil Herbert	2	3	-4	0	12%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nicholas Morrow	5	3	0.0	1	1
Jaquan Brisker	4	3	1.0	0	0
Kyler Gordon	5	0	0.0	1	1
Joe Thomas	4	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Blackwell	2	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0
Elijah Lee	2	0	0.0	0	0
Matthew Adams	2	0	0.0	0	0
Trevis Gipson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Elijah Hicks	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -8
Closing total: 40
BUF moneyline: -360
CHI moneyline: +304

Bills closed -8 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 40; the game landed 48 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 7°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 7 days · CHI 6 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Matt Eberflus

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.