2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

New England Patriots

CIN -3 ✓U 42 ✓21°FBengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Cincinnati Bengals 22–18. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, CIN +63% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:05CIN 22 — NE 18NE ball · 1st & 5NE 69%

(1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:05CIN +63% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.
Q4 · 6:13NE +16% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington
Q4 · 3:19CIN +13% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 41 for -3 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon), RECOVERED by NE-25-Ma.Jones at CIN 43. 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 43 for no gain (1-J.Chase). NE-25-Ma.Jones was injured during the play.
Q1 · 14:26NE +10% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to NE 31 for 39 yards (25-Ma.Jones).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:31CIN Touchdown
(12:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 85-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 6 — NE 0
Q1 · 5:23CIN Touchdown
(5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 16-T.Irwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 12 — NE 0
Q2 · 14:54CIN Field goal
(14:54) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Score after this play: CIN 15 — NE 0
Q2 · 0:19CIN Touchdown
(:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 16-T.Irwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 22 — NE 0
Q3 · 4:05NE Touchdown
(4:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 25-Ma.Jones at NE 31. 25-Ma.Jones for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-9-M.Judon was injured during the play. 6th defensive TD of season for NE, ties franchise record. NE 3rd straight game with a defensive TD, 1st time since 2004.
Score after this play: CIN 22 — NE 6
Q4 · 13:06NE Touchdown
(13:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 22 — NE 12
Q4 · 6:13NE Touchdown
(6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington
Score after this play: CIN 22 — NE 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Patriots
Offensive plays	78	52
Total yards	443 (edge)	286
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.09
Success rate	51% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	71%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

40/52, 375 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

9.3 expected points added · +14.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

21/33, 240 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

16 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

13 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-7.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

8/9 for 128 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

6/9 for 100 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 22	7	78	2:36	Touchdown +6
2	NE	NE 26	5	6	1:49	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 41	10	64	5:19	Touchdown +6
4	NE	NE 30	5	4	1:27	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 49	10	47	3:58	Field goal +3
6	NE	NE 18	7	21	3:01	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 24	13	49	7:31	Interception
8	NE	NE 15	5	29	2:03	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 20	13	65	2:02	Touchdown +7
10	NE	NE 25	3	11	0:14	End of half
11	NE	NE 24	6	4	1:50	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 19	7	39	4:04	Punt
13	NE	NE 12	4	4	2:06	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 45	5	23	3:09	Defensive touchdown
15	CIN	CIN 40	5	5	1:00	Punt
16	NE	NE 23	12	77	4:53	Touchdown +6
17	CIN	CIN 27	9	48	3:52	Missed field goal
18	NE	NE 33	8	85	3:04	Touchdown +6
19	CIN	CIN 25	6	18	2:50	Fumble
20	NE	CIN 43	6	30	2:13	Fumble
21	CIN	CIN 23	4	7	0:18	Punt
22	NE	NE 24	5	15	0:32	Turnover on downs
23	CIN	NE 34	1	0	0:09	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	40/52	375	3	2	2	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	16	65	4.1	1.5
Joe Burrow	4	5	1.3	-0.1
Samaje Perine	4	3	0.8	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	8	9	128	1	18%	10.3
Ja'Marr Chase	8	11	79	0	22%	-4.7
Trenton Irwin	3	4	45	2	8%	7.3
Joe Mixon	7	9	43	0	18%	-0.9
Mitchell Wilcox	6	6	35	0	12%	3.0
Tyler Boyd	3	4	21	0	8%	-1.8
Samaje Perine	3	4	19	0	8%	-0.1
Devin Asiasi	2	2	5	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	7	2	1.0	0
Cam Sample	3	3	1.0	0
Mike Hilton	4	1	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	1	3	0.0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	4	0	0.0	2
Vonn Bell	2	2	0.0	0
Germaine Pratt	2	1	0.0	1
Jessie Bates	2	1	0.0	0
Samaje Perine	1	1	0.0	0
Zach Carter	0	2	0.5	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	21/33	240	2	0	4	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	13	30	2.3	-7.5
Kendrick Bourne	1	29	29.0	1.4
Kevin Harris	1	3	3.0	-0.1
Mac Jones	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	6	9	100	1	29%	7.5
Jakobi Meyers	6	7	83	1	23%	4.7
Jonnu Smith	3	4	21	0	13%	-0.6
Marcus Jones	1	1	15	0	3%	1.1
Pierre Strong	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.3
Tyquan Thornton	1	3	8	0	10%	-1.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	5	3	0	16%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	9	3	0.0	0	1
Marcus Jones	10	1	0.0	1	1
Jonathan Jones	7	0	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	4	3	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	3	3	0.0	0	0
Matt Judon	5	1	1.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	4	0	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	2	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	1	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 42
CIN moneyline: -151
NE moneyline: +136

Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 21°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CIN 6 days · NE 6 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Bill Belichick