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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 22 at New England Patriots 18. Final.
Bengals -3 ✓U 42 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals 22, Patriots 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:05, 1st and 5, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 63.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:05 · 1st and 5
Rhamondre Stevenson
Bengals
(1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.
18°F
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Cincinnati Bengals 22–18. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, Bengals +63.4% win probability on one snap.
63.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jakobi MeyersPatriotsQ4 6:13(6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington
15.7pts
Ja'Marr ChasePatriotsQ4 3:19(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 41 for -3 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon), RECOVERED by NE-25-Ma.Jones at CIN 43. 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 43 for no gain (1-J.Chase). NE-25-Ma.Jones was injured during the play.
13.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.09 expected points per snap.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bengals171 of 185 plays carry both curves
(1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.
Swing −63.4 for PatriotsExpected points −5.25 for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:05CIN +63% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.
4th · 6:13NE +16% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN-92-B.Hill was injured during the play. ball was tipped by NE 88-Washington
4th · 3:19CIN +13% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 41 for -3 yards (9-M.Judon). FUMBLES (9-M.Judon), RECOVERED by NE-25-Ma.Jones at CIN 43. 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 43 for no gain (1-J.Chase). NE-25-Ma.Jones was injured during the play.
1st · 14:26NE +10% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to NE 31 for 39 yards (25-Ma.Jones).
4th · 1:47NE +10% win prob(1:47) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 5 for 2 yards (57-G.Pratt).
4th · 2:30NE +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tee Higgins's 9-yard touchdown catch with 12:31 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:31Tee Higgins·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
1st5:23Trenton Irwin·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point no good+612–0
2nd14:54Evan McPherson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder D.Chrisman · snap C.Adomitis+315–0
2nd0:19Trenton Irwin·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+722–0
3rd4:05Marcus Jones·69-yd defence TD69-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide right+622–6
4th13:06Kendrick Bourne·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones · two-point no good+622–12
4th6:13Jakobi Meyers·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones · kick no good, wide right+622–18
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryPatriots
Bengals7–1Patriots
443Total yards286
5.7Yards per play5.5
51%Success rate37%
50%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
25First downs14
2Sacks taken4
3Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Bengals: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.04Patriots: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Bengals: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.41Patriots: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 78 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Patriots’s 52 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Patriots 3.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's play-action rate, 2.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Patriots3.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.6%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.6 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Stevenson up−63% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.
Q4 1:05 · Patriots · 1st & goal at CIN 5 · lost 3 · -5.25 EP · −63.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 80 yards from the CIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62+0.2476%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0177%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2143%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.330%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-1.46100%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Bengals6Patriots0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Patriots 9
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 32
Bengals12Patriots0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Patriots 23
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 36
The period ended11 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Patriots 2
2nd quarter50 plays
Bengals15Patriots0
Field goal2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 39
Intercepted15 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Patriots 14
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 49
Bengals21Patriots0
Bengals22Patriots0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Patriots 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 36
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 39
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Patriots 42
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 16
Bengals22Patriots6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Patriots 32
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 40
4th quarter56 plays
Bengals22Patriots12
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Bengals 5
No good9 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Patriots 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.2 seconds
Bengals22Patriots18
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Bengals 29
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 44
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, two receivers and one backDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 5
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 25
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3
Closing total
42
Bengals moneyline
-151
Patriots moneyline
+136
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 18°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bengals 6 days · Patriots 6 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Bill Belichick
(2:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 16 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
4th · 0:48CIN +8% win prob(:48) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-Ma.Jones MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NE 24.
4th · 1:50NE +7% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 5 for 4 yards (21-M.Hilton). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 7 for 2 yards (21-M.Hilton).
Bengalscategory by categoryPatriots
Bengals6
Patriots0
