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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q1 5:20, 2nd and 16, on Bobby Wagner — 12.0 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 51–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:20, Rams +12.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:20 · 2nd and 16
Bobby Wagner
Rams
(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 4 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Gay's 55-yard field goal with 8:31 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Matt Gay55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+30–312 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Rams 6.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 26.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
DEN's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, is past their previous low of 8.6% in week 8 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
LA's early-down pass rate, 44.2%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 12 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 15 against 4.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.1% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
DEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.0% in week 15 against 41.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-7.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 61 snaps
Rams-2.6 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 83%
Tendencies room →Broncos66.7%leaned — passed early · +10.5 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 48 early downs
Rams44.2%leaned — ran early · −12.7 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 61%
Tendencies room →Broncos4.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.4 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Rams34.5%right on their number · +6.0 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Broncos—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 26.1%.
Rams—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 59%
Tendencies room →Broncos41.4%inside their normal wobble · +11.5 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams33.3%right on their number · +5.0 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Broncos3.4%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams26.2%leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
DEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 8.7 points below their season mean of 12.1% and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
24/28, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
13.9 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
15/27, 214 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-8.9 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerry Jeudy banked 2.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.7 | +2.3 | 90% | 95% | 29% | 37% | 6/10, 117 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Featured Receiver | 13.9 | +1.6 | 67% | 79% | 24% | 24% | 4/8, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | +1.0 | 79% | 88% | 21% | 33% | 5/7, 64 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 8.3 | −1.8 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 15/27, 214 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 2 car, 17 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 7.3 | +1.6 | 42% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 6 car, 31 yd · 2/2, 22 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −1.0 | 46% | 45% | 9% | 0% | 8 car, 34 yd · 1/3, 6 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 2.2 | −1.3 | 15% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 22 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Freddie SwainWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.6 | 75% | 74% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 28% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brett RypienQB | -0.2 | −2.8 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 4/8, 45 yd, 1 INT |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:36) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 38, and recovers at DEN 45.
Q1 9:36 · Rams · 2nd & 15 at DEN 32 · gained nothing · -1.82 EP · −8.7% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Rams3Broncos0Rams9Broncos0Rams10Broncos0Rams16Broncos0Rams17Broncos3Rams17Broncos3Rams23Broncos3Rams24Broncos3Rams30Broncos3Rams31Broncos6Rams31Broncos6Rams34Broncos6Rams40Broncos6Rams41Broncos12Rams41Broncos14Rams41Broncos14Rams44Broncos14Rams50Broncos14Rams51Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/27 | 214 | 1 | 3 | 6 | −8.9 |
| Brett Rypien | 4/8 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 10 | 117 | 0 | 29% | +9.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/28 | 230 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_DEN_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 65 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| +1.4 |
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 24% | −6.8 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | −8.0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Jalen Virgil | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 23 | 118 | 5.1 | 3 | +4.9 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Kyren Williams | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Brandon Powell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Bryce Perkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 9 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 39% | +7.9 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 11% | +4.6 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 18% | −0.7 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +1.1 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Troy Hill | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russ Yeast | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Taylor Rapp | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Larrell Murchison | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
