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2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos

14

Los Angeles RamsWinner

51

DEN -3 upsetO 36.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 51–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:20, DEN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑DEN ↓
Q1 · 5:20DEN 0 — LA 10DEN ball · 2nd & 16LA 67%

(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 5:20DEN +12% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).
  2. Q1 · 7:47DEN +6% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at DEN 49. 14-D.Durant ran ob at DEN 34 for 15 yards (82-E.Saubert).
  3. Q1 · 7:01LA +6% win prob(7:01) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 88-B.Hopkins pushed ob at DEN 9 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons).
  4. Q1 · 8:31LA +6% win prob(8:31) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:31LA Field goal

    (8:31) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — LA 3
  2. Q1 · 6:25LA Touchdown

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — LA 10
  3. Q1 · 4:49LA Touchdown

    (4:49) (No Huddle) 3-C.Akers right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — LA 17
  4. Q1 · 0:43DEN Field goal

    (:43) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: DEN 3 — LA 17
  5. Q2 · 9:47LA Touchdown

    (9:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-5-R.Gregory, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 3 — LA 24
  6. Q2 · 1:10LA Touchdown

    (1:10) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 3 — LA 31
  7. Q2 · 0:01DEN Field goal

    (:01) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: DEN 6 — LA 31
  8. Q3 · 3:53LA Field goal

    (3:53) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 6 — LA 34
  9. Q4 · 12:37LA Touchdown

    (12:37) 3-C.Akers left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 6 — LA 41
  10. Q4 · 8:38DEN Touchdown

    (8:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 80-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-J.Williams]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LA 41
  11. Q4 · 6:22LA Field goal

    (6:22) 8-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LA 44
  12. Q4 · 4:21LA Touchdown

    (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 86-F.Swain INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at LA 15. 14-D.Durant for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LA 51

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosRams
Offensive plays6263
Total yards325390 (edge)
Yards per play5.26.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.280.29 (edge)
Success rate40%56% (edge)
Dropback rate68%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.410.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.13 (edge)
Third downs3/106/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1925 (edge)
Sacks taken60 (edge)
Turnovers40 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Baker MayfieldQB

24/28, 230 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.9 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

15/27, 214 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-8.9 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

23 att, 118 yds, 3 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

8 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

6/10 for 117 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tyler HigbeeTE

9/11 for 94 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 2512566:34Field goal +3
2DENDEN 25410:51Interception
3LADEN 344341:16Touchdown +7
4DENDEN 25341:07Interception
5LADEN 113110:27Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 259494:06Field goal +3
7LALA 2513755:57Touchdown +7
8DENDEN 348122:30Punt
9LALA 1013856:06Touchdown +7
10DENDEN 258441:06Field goal +3
11DENDEN 256472:03Interception
12LALA 2015689:08Field goal +3
13DENDEN 255-91:31Punt
14LALA 409554:47Touchdown +7
15DENDEN 2514774:01Touchdown +8
16LADEN 41562:14Field goal +3
17DENDEN 2510522:08Defensive touchdown
18DENDEN 259484:02Turnover on downs
19LALA 27100:06End of game

11 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson15/27214136-8.9
Brett Rypien4/845010-8.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Latavius Murray8344.300.5
Chase Edmonds6315.200.1
Marlon Mack4225.50-1.4
Russell Wilson2178.501.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jerry Jeudy610117029%9.2
Courtland Sutton5764021%1.4
Greg Dulcich4839124%-6.8
Chase Edmonds222206%0.7
Freddie Swain121106%-8.0
Latavius Murray13609%-1.4
Marlon Mack01003%-1.0
Jalen Virgil01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton860.000
Josey Jewell350.000
Justin Simmons330.000
Jonathon Cooper140.000
Damarri Mathis320.000
K'Waun Williams220.000
Jonathan Harris120.000
Kareem Jackson120.000
Nik Bonitto110.000
Eyioma Uwazurike200.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield24/2823020013.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Cam Akers231185.134.9
Malcolm Brown2199.504.1
Kyren Williams6183.00-1.8
Brandon Powell231.50-1.0
Baker Mayfield221.00-2.2
Bryce Perkins1-2-2.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Higbee91194239%7.9
Brycen Hopkins3357011%4.6
Cam Akers222907%2.2
Van Jefferson3519018%-0.7
Tutu Atwell221407%1.1
Brandon Powell3312011%-0.3
Kyren Williams11304%-0.2
Malcolm Brown11204%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner431.011
Troy Hill240.000
Russ Yeast230.000
Jalen Ramsey410.013
Taylor Rapp310.000
Michael Hoecht211.500
Jonah Williams210.500
Larrell Murchison202.000
Bobby Brown200.000
Ernest Jones110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -3
Closing total
36.5
DEN moneyline
-173
LA moneyline
+155

Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 65 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
DEN 7 days · LA 6 days
Coaches
Nathaniel Hackett vs Sean McVay