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Los Angeles Rams 51, Broncos 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 5:20, 2nd and 16, on Bobby Wagner — 12.0 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:20 · 2nd and 16
Bobby Wagner
Rams
(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).
Dome
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 51–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:20, Rams +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cobie DurantRamsQ1 7:47(7:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at DEN 49. 14-D.Durant ran ob at DEN 34 for 15 yards (82-E.Saubert).
6.4pts
Brycen HopkinsRamsQ1 7:01(7:01) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 88-B.Hopkins pushed ob at DEN 9 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons).
6.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 4 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Broncos at 3 of 10 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Broncos162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).
Swing +12.0 for RamsExpected points +4.97 for RamsThe model had Rams 13 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:20DEN +12% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 45-B.Wagner at DEN 24. 45-B.Wagner to DEN 11 for 13 yards (19-C.Edmonds).
1st · 7:47DEN +6% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 14-D.Durant at DEN 49. 14-D.Durant ran ob at DEN 34 for 15 yards (82-E.Saubert).
1st · 7:01LA +6% win prob(7:01) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 88-B.Hopkins pushed ob at DEN 9 for 22 yards (31-J.Simmons).
1st · 8:31LA +6% win prob(8:31) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
1st · 9:36DEN +6% win prob(9:36) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 38, and recovers at DEN 45.
3rd · 13:06DEN +5% win prob(13:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -7. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 55-yard field goal with 8:31 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:31Matt Gay·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+30–3
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Broncos: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.29Rams: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Broncos: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.47Rams: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.13Rams: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Rams 6.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 26.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 15 against 4.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.1% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
DEN's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.0% in week 15 against 41.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams26.2%
leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 8.7 points below their season mean of 12.1% and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%67 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%67 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%67 snaps
57Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%67 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time90%60 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Heavy rotation75%50 snaps
86Freddie SwainWR · Heavy rotation75%50 snaps
80Greg DulcichTE · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational46%31 snaps
19Chase EdmondsRB · Rotational42%28 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
15Jalen VirgilWR · Rotational28%19 snaps
4Brett RypienQB · Rotational25%17 snaps
87Eric TomlinsonTE · Situational16%11 snaps
37Marlon MackRB · Situational15%10 snaps
12Montrell WashingtonWR · Situational4%3 snaps
83Andrew BeckTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael OjemudiaCBElijah GarciaDTJarrett GuarantanoQBCalvin AndersonTAlbert OkwuegbunamTEKendall HintonWRBrandon JohnsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Luke WattenbergC
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
64Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%65 snaps
63Oday AboushiG · Full-time98%64 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Full-time98%64 snaps
68Ty NsekheT · Full-time94%61 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time94%61 snaps
17Baker MayfieldQB · Full-time94%61 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time91%59 snaps
3Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
15Tutu AtwellWR · Heavy rotation69%45 snaps
19Brandon PowellWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
81Austin TrammellWR · Situational14%9 snaps
82Lance McCutcheonWR · Situational12%8 snaps
23Kyren WilliamsRB · Situational12%8 snaps
41Malcolm BrownRB · Situational11%7 snaps
61A.J. ArcuriT · Situational6%4 snaps
16Bryce PerkinsQB · Situational6%4 snaps
71Bobby EvansG · Situational2%1 snap
57Zachary ThomasT · Situational2%1 snap
30Ronnie RiversRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Brian AllenCShaun JollyDBAaron DonaldDTMarquise CopelandDTTravin HowardILBJohn WolfordQBBen SkowronekWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield FUMBLES−9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:36) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 38, and recovers at DEN 45.
Q1 9:36 · Rams · 2nd & 15 at DEN 32 · gained nothing · -1.82 EP · −8.7% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
45%
Yards
713
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.3366%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.3659%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31+0.2129%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2560%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Broncos0Rams3
Field goal13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Broncos 27
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Broncos0Rams9
Broncos0Rams10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 9
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 29
Broncos0Rams16
Broncos0Rams17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 2
Broncos3Rams17
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 36
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Broncos3Rams23
Broncos3Rams24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Broncos 7
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Rams 45
Broncos3Rams30
Broncos3Rams31
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Broncos 2
Broncos6Rams31
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 31
3rd quarter31 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 38
Broncos6Rams34
Field goal15 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Broncos 11
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Broncos 33
4th quarter50 plays
Broncos6Rams40
Broncos6Rams41
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 4
Broncos12Rams41
Broncos14Rams41
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 11
Broncos14Rams44
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Broncos 35
Broncos14Rams50
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 23
Broncos14Rams51
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 29
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3
Closing total
36.5
Broncos moneyline
-173
Rams moneyline
+155
Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 65 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Rams 6 days
Coaches
Nathaniel Hackett vs Sean McVay
1st · 4:49
DEN +5% win prob
(4:49) (No Huddle) 3-C.Akers right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:09DEN +4% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 19-C.Edmonds up the middle to LA 34 for 4 yards (45-B.Wagner; 90-E.Brown). PENALTY on DEN-61-G.Glasgow, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 38 - No Play.
