2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Detroit Lions

Carolina PanthersWinner

DET -2.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓20°FLions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 37–23. Biggest swing: Q2 14:20, DET +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:20DET 7 — CAR 7DET ball · 1st & 8DET 73%

(14:20) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 9, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 9.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:20DET +12% win prob(14:20) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 9, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 9.
Q1 · 11:46CAR +11% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 4-D.Chark to CAR 21 for 39 yards (21-J.Chinn) [98-M.Haynes].
Q1 · 13:51CAR +10% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 18 for 35 yards (31-K.Joseph).
Q2 · 8:30CAR +9% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to CAR 44 for 36 yards (39-J.Jacobs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:02CAR Touchdown
(12:02) (Shotgun) 20-R.Blackshear right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 0 — CAR 7
Q1 · 8:43DET Touchdown
(8:43) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — CAR 7
Q2 · 9:40CAR Touchdown
(9:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — CAR 14
Q2 · 2:12CAR Touchdown
(2:12) 33-D.Foreman up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — CAR 21
Q2 · 0:02CAR Field goal
(:02) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: DET 7 — CAR 24
Q3 · 9:19CAR Touchdown
(9:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 7 — CAR 31
Q3 · 3:16DET Touchdown
(3:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 84-S.Zylstra for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DET 13 — CAR 31
Q4 · 13:17CAR Field goal
(13:17) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: DET 13 — CAR 34
Q4 · 3:50DET Touchdown
(3:50) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 84-S.Zylstra for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 20 — CAR 34
Q4 · 2:00CAR Field goal
(2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: DET 20 — CAR 37
Q4 · 0:40DET Field goal
(:40) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 23 — CAR 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Panthers
Offensive plays	62	64
Total yards	381	571 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1	8.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	35%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	34%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30	0.65 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.60	0.28 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

25/42, 355 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

15/22, 250 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

D'Onta ForemanRB

21 att, 165 yds, 1 TD

7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

12 att, 125 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

D.J. CharkWR

4/5 for 108 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

5/7 for 83 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 22	7	83	3:03	Touchdown +7
2	DET	DET 40	10	60	3:19	Touchdown +7
3	CAR	CAR 25	6	30	2:31	Punt
4	DET	DET 9	13	80	6:50	Fumble
5	CAR	CAR 9	9	91	4:42	Touchdown +7
6	DET	DET 28	5	4	1:01	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 8	12	87	6:26	Touchdown +7
8	DET	DET 25	5	9	1:09	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 14	7	73	0:59	Field goal +3
10	DET	DET 30	5	-3	2:14	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 26	8	74	3:34	Touchdown +7
12	DET	DET 21	5	-9	1:07	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 45	4	3	1:44	Punt
14	DET	DET 20	8	80	3:12	Touchdown +6
15	CAR	CAR 31	11	32	4:56	Field goal +3
16	DET	DET 48	7	45	2:45	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 7	7	61	4:52	Punt
18	DET	DET 13	9	83	1:50	Touchdown +7
19	CAR	50	7	37	1:50	Field goal +3
20	DET	DET 22	9	32	1:20	Field goal +3
21	CAR	DET 38	2	0	0:36	End of game

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	25/42	355	3	0	2	13.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jared Goff	3	15	5.0	-5.5
D'Andre Swift	4	12	3.0	-1.5
Jamaal Williams	7	11	1.6	-0.9
Kalif Raymond	1	8	8.0	0.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1	0	0.0	-0.7
Justin Jackson	1	-1	-1.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	4	5	108	0	12%	7.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	7	13	76	0	32%	1.0
Kalif Raymond	1	1	56	0	2%	4.0
James Mitchell	2	2	31	0	5%	2.9
Josh Reynolds	2	4	31	0	10%	-1.9
Shane Zylstra	5	6	26	3	15%	6.4
D'Andre Swift	1	5	13	0	12%	0.2
Brock Wright	1	1	11	0	2%	1.3
Jamaal Williams	2	2	3	0	5%	-1.6
Jameson Williams	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9
Justin Jackson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Ifeatu Melifonwu	6	2
Kerby Joseph	4	4
Jeff Okudah	4	2
Alim McNeill	1	5
Isaiah Buggs	2	4
John Cominsky	2	4
Aidan Hutchinson	2	2
Malcolm Rodriguez	2	2
Alex Anzalone	3	1
Derrick Barnes	1	2

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	15/22	250	1	0	0	14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	21	165	7.9	1	7.2
Chuba Hubbard	12	125	10.4	0	1.6
Sam Darnold	6	19	3.2	1	0.7
D.J. Moore	1	8	8.0	0	1.0
Raheem Blackshear	3	3	1.0	1	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	7	83	1	33%	8.8
Terrace Marshall	2	3	55	0	14%	3.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	3	53	0	14%	1.3
Tommy Tremble	2	2	18	0	10%	0.7
Shi Smith	1	2	17	0	10%	0.3
Raheem Blackshear	1	1	12	0	5%	1.2
Ian Thomas	1	3	12	0	14%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jaycee Horn	5	1	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	5	1	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	4	1	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	2	3	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	1	0.0	1
Myles Hartsfield	4	0	0.0	0
Matt Ioannidis	1	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	0	2.0	1
Bravvion Roy	0	2	0.0	1
T.J. Carrie	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -2.5
Closing total: 43.5
DET moneyline: -129
CAR moneyline: +117

Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 60 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 20°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DET 6 days · CAR 6 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Steve Wilks