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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Lions169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(14:20) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 9, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 9.
Swing +12.2 for PanthersExpected points +5.49 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 10 points higher than the market did.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:20DET +12% win prob(14:20) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 9, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 9.
1st · 11:46CAR +11% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 4-D.Chark to CAR 21 for 39 yards (21-J.Chinn) [98-M.Haynes].
1st · 13:51CAR +10% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DET 18 for 35 yards (31-K.Joseph).
2nd · 8:30CAR +9% win prob(8:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall to CAR 44 for 36 yards (39-J.Jacobs).
2nd · 5:08CAR +7% win prob(5:08) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold up the middle to DET 23 for 3 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).
2nd · 9:40CAR +6% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:28
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sam Darnold's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 9:40 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
2nd0:02Eddy Pineiro·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+37–24
3rd9:19D.J. Moore·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+77–31
3rd3:16Shane Zylstra·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · two-point no good+613–31
4th13:17Eddy Pineiro·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+313–34
4th3:50Shane Zylstra·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+720–34
4th2:00Eddy Pineiro·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+320–37
4th0:40Michael Badgley·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+323–37
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPanthers
Lions0–8Panthers
381Total yards571
6.1Yards per play8.9
35%Success rate55%
33%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays12
19First downs27
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.41Panthers: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Lions: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.65Panthers: +0.65 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.60Lions: −0.60 expected points added per play
+0.28Panthers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 62 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Panthers’s 64 at 34%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Panthers 6.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's early-down pass rate, 71.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 63.0% in week 8.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 15.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 15.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −14.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Panthers15.2%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.7%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 53.1% and 2.0 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%66 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%66 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time83%55 snaps
4D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation56%37 snaps
84Shane ZylstraTE · Rotational44%29 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational41%27 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational32%21 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Rotational29%19 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Situational24%16 snaps
42Justin JacksonRB · Situational21%14 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Situational17%11 snaps
86Garrett GriffinTE · Situational15%10 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ross PierschbacherCMichael BrockersDEJason CabindaFBDeShon ElliottFSAustin BryantOLBCraig ReynoldsRBKayode AwosikaT
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:20) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 9, RECOVERED by CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos at CAR 9.
Q2 14:20 · Lions · 1st & goal at CAR 8 · gained nothing · -5.49 EP · −15.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 92 yards from the CAR 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
47%
Yards
951
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0180%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.5947%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1217%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1443%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3060%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.760%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Lions0Panthers6
Lions0Panthers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Lions 7
Lions6Panthers7
Lions7Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Panthers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to midfield
The period ended13 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Panthers 20
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 8
Lions7Panthers13
Lions7Panthers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Lions 3
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 32
Lions7Panthers20
Lions7Panthers21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Lions 4
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Lions7Panthers24
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Lions 18
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 37
Lions7Panthers30
Lions7Panthers31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Lions 5
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 48
Lions13Panthers31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Panthers 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Lions 39
4th quarter56 plays
Lions13Panthers34
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 22
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Panthers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Lions 32
Lions19Panthers34
Lions20Panthers34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Panthers 1
Lions20Panthers37
Field goal11 plays, from midfield to the Lions 13
Lions23Panthers37
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Panthers 16
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
