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2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay26
BY 6final margin
DolphinsMiami20
Green Bay Packers 26 at Miami Dolphins 20. Final.
Dolphins -3.5 upsetU 49 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 16
Green Bay Packers 26, Dolphins 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:09, 2nd and 13, on De'Vondre Campbell — 31.1 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:09 · 2nd and 13
De'Vondre Campbell
Packers
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 6:09, Packers +31.1% win probability on one snap.
31.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaylen WaddleDolphinsQ1 9:21(9:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.1pts
Jaire AlexanderPackersQ4 14:08(14:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at MIA 37. 23-J.Alexander pushed ob at MIA 14 for 23 yards (31-R.Mostert).
22.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 of 7 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 13 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Packers146 of 160 plays carry both curves
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
Swing −31.1 for DolphinsExpected points −4.79 for DolphinsThe model had Packers 7 points higher than the market did.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:09GB +31% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
4th · 14:08GB +23% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at MIA 37. 23-J.Alexander pushed ob at MIA 14 for 23 yards (31-R.Mostert).
1st · 9:21MIA +17% win prob(9:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:06MIA +16% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to GB 27 for 19 yards (31-A.Amos).
2nd · 11:44MIA +13% win prob(11:44) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to GB 1 for 52 yards (20-R.Ford; 31-A.Amos).
1st · 11:10MIA +13% win prob7-J.Sanders kicks 67 yards from MIA 35 to GB -2. 25-K.Nixon to MIA 9 for 93 yards (20-J.Bethel).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 28-yard field goal with 11:49 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st11:15Jason Sanders·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+30–3
1st9:30Mason Crosby·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+33–3
1st9:21Jaylen Waddle·84-yd TD catch84-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+73–10
4th11:49Mason Crosby·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.CocoLead never changed again+323–20
4th2:06Mason Crosby·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+326–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryDolphins
Packers2–4Dolphins
304Total yards376
4.9Yards per play8.4
42%Success rate44%
15%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays7
15First downs15
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers4
The read
Dolphins ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Packers: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.02Dolphins: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.04Dolphins: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Packers: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.11Dolphins: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 45 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Dolphins 3.
NoteDolphins outgained Packers 376-304 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins7.1%
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.8 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.9 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
Q4 6:09 · Dolphins · 2nd & 13 at GB 30 · gained nothing · -4.79 EP · −24.4% win probability
144 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 128. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
38%
Yards
677
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1366%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.1648%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1664%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11-0.7382%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Packers0Dolphins3
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Packers 28
Packers3Dolphins3
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Dolphins 5
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Packers3Dolphins9
Packers3Dolphins10
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back and four tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, five linebackers and one backRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Packers9Dolphins10
Packers10Dolphins10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Dolphins 1
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Packers 39
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 37
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Packers10Dolphins16
Packers10Dolphins17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 20
Packers10Dolphins20
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 18
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 49
Packers13Dolphins20
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter29 plays
Packers19Dolphins20
Packers20Dolphins20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Dolphins 1
No good11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Packers 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Dolphins 34
4th quarter45 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the Dolphins 39
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Packers23Dolphins20
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Packers 25
Packers26Dolphins20
Field goal16 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Dolphins 8
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 31
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3.5
Closing total
49
Packers moneyline
+163
Dolphins moneyline
-182
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 46 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 44°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-west; 0.05 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Packers 6 days · Dolphins 8 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike McDaniel
4th · 1:34
GB +12% win prob
(1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at MIA 44. 29-R.Douglas to MIA 39 for 5 yards.
2nd · 2:00GB +10% win prob(2:00) 31-R.Mostert right guard to 50 for 1 yard (90-J.Reed, 59-D.Campbell). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by GB-90-J.Reed at MIA 49. 90-J.Reed to MIA 49 for no gain (71-B.Shell).
