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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q4 6:09, 2nd and 13, on De'Vondre Campbell — 31.1 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 6:09, Packers +31.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:09 · 2nd and 13
De'Vondre Campbell
Packers
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
31.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 of 7 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 13 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 28-yard field goal with 11:49 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Mason Crosby28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.CocoLead never changed again+323–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 45 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Dolphins 3.
Dolphins outgained Packers 376-304 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Packers9.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.5 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 62 snaps
Dolphins-4.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 45 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers65.9%leaned — passed early · +12.9 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 44 early downs
Dolphins54.1%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 67%
Tendencies room →Packers35.7%inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins37.0%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Packers71.4%leaned — went for it · +27.1 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 69%
Tendencies room →Packers0.0%leaned — sat back · −22.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.89× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins38.1%right on their number · +6.4 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers22.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins7.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
GB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 22.8 points below their season mean of 22.8% and 1.9 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
16/25, 310 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
1.0 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · GB
24/38, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.1 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaylen Waddle banked 15.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.3 | +15.5 | 74% | 85% | 25% | 27% | 5/6, 143 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | +0.5 | 80% | 96% | 25% | 51% | 4/6, 103 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | −13.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/38, 238 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 18 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 12.8 | +0.2 | 58% | 60% | 8% | 0% | 11 car, 36 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +5.3 | 44% | 38% | 5% | 9% | 2/2, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen LazardWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.1 | −10.8 | 89% | 95% | 29% | 43% | 5/11, 61 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Committee Back | 11.0 | +0.8 | 60% | 63% | 8% | 0% | 9 car, 37 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 3 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −7.9 | 38% | 48% | 21% | 21% | 6/8, 49 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 310 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −3.3 | 61% | 60% | 16% | 19% | 3/6, 36 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB | 5.4 | −1.3 | 38% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 6 car, 25 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 4.9 | −3.3 | 52% | 48% | 13% | 0% | 8 car, 45 yd · 2/3, 4 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.1 | 44% | 52% | 8% | 9% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.1 | 24% | 37% | 8% | 13% | 1/2, 24 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 2.7 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.2 | 58% | 64% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.8 | 64% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 48% | 50% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 29% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.0 | −2.6 | 54% | 37% | 8% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
Q4 6:09 · Dolphins · 2nd & 13 at GB 30 · gained nothing · -4.79 EP · −24.4% win probability
144 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 128. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Dolphins3Packers3Dolphins3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Packers3Dolphins9Packers3Dolphins10How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers9Dolphins10Packers10Dolphins10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers10Dolphins16Packers10Dolphins17Packers10Dolphins20Packers13Dolphins20Packers19Dolphins20Packers20Dolphins20How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Packers23Dolphins20How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Packers26Dolphins20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/38 | 238 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 | −2.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 29% | −3.7 |
| Christian Watson | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Amos | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaire Alexander |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/25 | 310 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_GB_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 46 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 18 |
| 2.6 |
| 0 |
| +2.4 |
| Dallin Leavitt | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.2 |
| −0.6 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 16% | +1.1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 5% | +4.6 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| A.J. Dillon | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +1.5 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Innis Gaines | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Carpenter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 6 | 143 | 1 | 25% | +9.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 103 | 0 | 25% | +0.2 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +3.6 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13% | −5.7 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Alec Ingold | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
