2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

Miami Dolphins

MIA -3.5 upsetU 49 ✓Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 6:09, GB +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:09GB 23 — MIA 20MIA ball · 2nd & 13MIA 56%

(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:09GB +31% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at GB 22. 59-D.Campbell to GB 36 for 14 yards (30-A.Ingold).
Q4 · 14:08GB +23% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at MIA 37. 23-J.Alexander pushed ob at MIA 14 for 23 yards (31-R.Mostert).
Q1 · 9:21MIA +17% win prob(9:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:06MIA +16% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill to GB 27 for 19 yards (31-A.Amos).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:15MIA Field goal
(11:15) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: GB 0 — MIA 3
Q1 · 9:30GB Field goal
(9:30) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIA 3
Q1 · 9:21MIA Touchdown
(9:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIA 10
Q1 · 4:14GB Touchdown
(4:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIA 10
Q2 · 10:55MIA Touchdown
(10:55) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIA 17
Q2 · 4:23MIA Field goal
(4:23) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIA 20
Q2 · 0:07GB Field goal
(:07) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: GB 13 — MIA 20
Q3 · 7:58GB Touchdown
(7:58) 28-A.Dillon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 20 — MIA 20
Q4 · 11:49GB Field goal
(11:49) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: GB 23 — MIA 20
Q4 · 2:06GB Field goal
(2:06) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: GB 26 — MIA 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Dolphins
Offensive plays	62	45
Total yards	304	376 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	8.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	42%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	2/7 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Dolphins outgained Packers 376–304 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

16/25, 310 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

1.0 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

24/38, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.1 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

8 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Jeffery WilsonRB

9 att, 37 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/6 for 143 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

4/6 for 103 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 20	9	52	3:50	Field goal +3
2	GB	MIA 9	5	-9	1:44	Field goal +3
3	MIA	MIA 16	3	84	0:18	Touchdown +7
4	GB	GB 46	12	54	4:58	Touchdown +7
5	MIA	MIA 25	7	36	3:40	Punt
6	GB	GB 12	5	51	2:05	Turnover on downs
7	MIA	MIA 38	4	77	2:33	Touchdown +7
8	GB	GB 12	5	8	1:35	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	GB 20	7	14	4:59	Field goal +3
10	GB	GB 13	5	5	1:38	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 41	2	8	0:45	Fumble
12	GB	MIA 49	8	21	1:53	Field goal +3
13	MIA	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
14	GB	GB 22	13	78	7:07	Touchdown +7
15	MIA	MIA 25	11	45	5:28	Missed field goal
16	GB	GB 38	6	33	3:17	Interception
17	MIA	MIA 20	1	0	0:09	Interception
18	GB	MIA 14	6	2	2:14	Field goal +3
19	MIA	MIA 18	10	57	5:43	Interception
20	GB	GB 36	9	61	4:00	Field goal +3
21	MIA	MIA 28	3	3	0:33	Interception
22	GB	MIA 39	3	0	1:29	End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 84 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	24/38	238	1	1	2	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	11	36	3.3	1	-2.2
Aaron Jones	6	25	4.2	0	-0.8
Aaron Rodgers	7	18	2.6	0	2.4
Dallin Leavitt	1	0	0.0	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	5	11	61	0	29%	-3.7
Christian Watson	6	8	49	0	21%	-0.6
Romeo Doubs	3	6	36	0	16%	1.1
Marcedes Lewis	2	2	32	1	5%	4.6
Patrick Taylor	1	1	17	0	3%	2.6
Robert Tonyan	1	2	13	0	5%	0.4
A.J. Dillon	2	3	12	0	8%	-0.5
Aaron Jones	2	2	9	0	5%	-0.2
Randall Cobb	1	2	5	0	5%	1.5
Josiah Deguara	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Amos	9	2	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	3	0	0.0	1	2
Jaire Alexander	3	0	0.0	1	1
Innis Gaines	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	1.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	1	2	0.0	1	1
Tedarrell Slaton	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tariq Carpenter	2	0	0.0	0	0
Preston Smith	2	0	1.0	0	0
Eric Wilson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	16/25	310	1	3	2	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	8	45	5.6	0	-1.0
Jeffery Wilson	9	37	4.1	1	0.3
Tua Tagovailoa	1	0	0.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	5	6	143	1	25%	9.7
Tyreek Hill	4	6	103	0	25%	0.2
Trent Sherfield	2	2	25	0	8%	3.6
Mike Gesicki	1	2	24	0	8%	-0.8
Durham Smythe	1	1	8	0	4%	0.3
Raheem Mostert	2	3	4	0	13%	-5.7
Jeffery Wilson	1	2	3	0	8%	-1.1
Alec Ingold	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jevon Holland	7	0	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	4	3	1.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	6	0	1.0	0	1
Jaelan Phillips	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kader Kohou	5	0	0.0	1	2
Christian Wilkins	2	2	0.0	0	2
Xavien Howard	2	1	0.0	0	1
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Raekwon Davis	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3.5
Closing total: 49
GB moneyline: +163
MIA moneyline: -182

Dolphins closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 46 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: GB 6 days · MIA 8 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Mike McDaniel