2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Nissan Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Tennessee Titans

TEN -3 upsetU 34 ✓22°FTitans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 19–14. Biggest swing: Q4 1:39, HOU +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:39HOU 19 — TEN 14TEN ball · 1st & 10HOU 64%

(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris [96-M.Collins] at HOU 42. 48-C.Harris pushed ob at TEN 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:39HOU +32% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris [96-M.Collins] at HOU 42. 48-C.Harris pushed ob at TEN 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
Q4 · 3:49TEN +19% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 19-A.Rodgers ran ob at TEN 10 for 37 yards (20-L.Johnson).
Q4 · 13:53HOU +17% win prob(13:53) 22-D.Henry left tackle to HOU 38 for 6 yards (49-J.Hansen). FUMBLES (49-J.Hansen), RECOVERED by HOU-52-J.Greenard at HOU 42.
Q4 · 1:17HOU +13% win prob(1:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:58TEN Touchdown
(8:58) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 0 — TEN 7
Q1 · 2:44HOU Touchdown
(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles right end to TEN 1 for 5 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry), recovered by HOU-28-R.Burkhead at TEN -6. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — TEN 7
Q2 · 6:53HOU Field goal
(6:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 10 — TEN 7
Q3 · 8:59TEN Touchdown
(8:59) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — TEN 14
Q4 · 7:27HOU Field goal
(7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — TEN 14
Q4 · 2:58HOU Touchdown
(2:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-20-L.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Score after this play: HOU 19 — TEN 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Titans
Offensive plays	63	58
Total yards	286 (edge)	272
Yards per play	4.5	4.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	40%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.56
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

17/28, 178 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.3 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Malik WillisQB

14/23, 99 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-17.2 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

23 att, 126 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Malik WillisQB

7 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Phillip DorsettWR

3/3 for 45 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Jordan AkinsTE

3/3 for 39 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 27	5	-9	2:05	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 26	4	2	0:58	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 40	6	65	3:09	Touchdown +7
4	HOU	HOU 25	13	74	6:14	Turnover on downs +7
5	TEN	TEN 25	5	9	2:34	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 41	13	57	8:10	Field goal +3
7	TEN	TEN 27	6	12	2:57	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 23	4	-1	1:33	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 25	11	35	2:11	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 9	1	0	0:09	End of half
11	HOU	HOU 28	8	25	2:35	Turnover on downs
12	TEN	TEN 48	7	52	3:34	Touchdown +7
13	HOU	HOU 37	4	2	1:50	Interception
14	TEN	HOU 40	4	2	0:55	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 38	4	4	2:11	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 10	4	9	2:14	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 31	4	0	0:26	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 31	5	27	2:31	Fumble
19	HOU	HOU 42	10	49	6:19	Field goal +3
20	TEN	TEN 21	5	2	2:18	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 27	6	73	2:15	Touchdown +6
22	TEN	TEN 25	7	30	1:19	Interception
23	HOU	TEN 38	4	1	0:23	Punt
24	TEN	TEN 4	6	38	1:10	Interception

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 74 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	17/28	178	1	1	1	-3.3
Jeff Driskel	3/4	40	0	0	0	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Royce Freeman	16	32	2.0	-5.0
Dare Ogunbowale	8	28	3.5	-0.0
Davis Mills	4	8	2.0	3.5
Jeff Driskel	2	2	1.0	-4.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Phillip Dorsett	3	3	45	0	10%	3.2
Jordan Akins	3	3	39	0	10%	2.0
Amari Rodgers	1	2	37	0	7%	0.0
Brandin Cooks	4	9	34	1	31%	-1.2
Chris Moore	2	4	25	0	14%	0.4
Brevin Jordan	2	2	21	0	7%	1.8
Rex Burkhead	2	2	7	0	7%	-1.7
Royce Freeman	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Jeff Driskel	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Teagan Quitoriano	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3
Troy Hairston	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jalen Pitre	6	2	0.0	1	1
Christian Kirksey	5	0	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	2	2	0.0	0	1
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	4	0	2.0	0	0
Roy Lopez	2	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Harris	3	1	0.0	1	2
Desmond King	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Owens	3	0	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jake Hansen	2	1	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Malik Willis	14/23	99	0	2	4	-17.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	23	126	5.5	1	-3.3
Malik Willis	7	43	6.1	1	4.2
Treylon Burks	1	15	15.0	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	4	5	30	25%	0.1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	3	23	15%	-1.4
Austin Hooper	2	3	20	15%	-1.1
Hassan Haskins	2	2	17	10%	0.3
Chigoziem Okonkwo	1	2	10	10%	0.4
Derrick Henry	2	2	0	10%	-2.1
Treylon Burks	0	2	0	10%	-5.9
Geoff Swaim	1	1	-1	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Monty Rice	6	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jack Gibbens	2	4	0.0	1	1
Denico Autry	3	2	1.0	0	2
Joshua Kalu	1	3	0.0	0	0
Roger McCreary	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	3	0.0	0	0
Teair Tart	1	2	0.0	0	1
Rashad Weaver	2	1	0.0	0	0
Andrew Adams	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -3
Closing total: 34
HOU moneyline: +153
TEN moneyline: -170

Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 34; the game landed 33 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 22°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: HOU 6 days · TEN 6 days
Coaches: Lovie Smith vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.