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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q4 1:39, 1st and 10, on Christian Harris — 32.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:39 · 1st and 10
Christian Harris
Texans
(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris [96-M.Collins] at HOU 42. 48-C.Harris pushed ob at TEN 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
Houston Texans 19–14. Biggest swing: Q4 1:39, Texans +32.5% win probability on one snap.
32.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.56 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris [96-M.Collins] at HOU 42. 48-C.Harris pushed ob at TEN 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandin Cooks's 6-yard touchdown catch with 2:58 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Brandin Cooks6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Mills · two-point no goodLead never changed again+619–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Titans’s 58 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Titans 2.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-2.9 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 62 snaps
Titans-24.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.7 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 87%
Tendencies room →Texans51.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 47 early downs
Titans45.5%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →Texans20.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Titans25.0%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -43% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Texans33.3%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±23.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Titans33.3%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 46%
Tendencies room →Texans17.9%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans25.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Texans21.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans16.7%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -24.4 pts, 13.7 points below their season mean of -10.7 pts and 1.4 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
17/28, 178 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.3 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
14/23, 99 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-17.2 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.6 | +4.6 | 74% | 50% | 10% | 0% | 23 car, 126 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 0 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.4 | +1.3 | 76% | 69% | 31% | 38% | 4/9, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | +0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 99 yd, 2 INT · 7 car, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −3.9 | 78% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 178 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 8 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +3.0 | 58% | 58% | 10% | 14% | 3/3, 45 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | +0.7 | 95% | 96% | 25% | 14% | 4/5, 30 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +2.7 | 55% | 61% | 10% | 9% | 3/3, 39 yd |
| Royce FreemanRB · Committee Back | 4.8 | −4.8 | 55% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 16 car, 32 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.3 | 21% | 25% | 7% | 11% | 1/2, 37 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −1.6 | 91% | 89% | 14% | 13% | 2/4, 25 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.2 | 75% | 75% | 15% | 15% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.5 | 54% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.1 | 49% | 61% | 15% | 17% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB · Receiving Back | 3.7 | +1.1 | 25% | 46% | 10% | 9% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Jeff DriskelQB | 3.2 | −0.3 | 28% | — | 3% | 0% | 3/4, 40 yd · 2 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2.8 | −1.2 | 28% | 25% | 0% | — | 8 car, 28 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB | 2.7 | −0.8 | 16% | 25% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 2.0 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.2 | 82% | 86% | 10% | 4% | 1 car, 15 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Troy HairstonRB | 1.0 | −0.3 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.3 | 39% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 27% | 19% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jonathan WardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass short left intended for 16-T.Burks INTERCEPTED by 48-C.Harris [96-M.Collins] at HOU 42. 48-C.Harris pushed ob at TEN 38 for 20 yards (55-A.Brewer).
Q4 1:39 · Titans · 1st & 10 at HOU 45 · gained nothing · -5.60 EP · −29.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 142. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Texans0
Titans6Texans0Titans7Texans6Titans7Texans7Titans7Texans10Titans7Texans10Titans13Texans10Titans14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Texans13Titans14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
Texans19Titans14How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 17/28 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −3.3 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3/4 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 16 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Davis Mills |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 10% | +3.2 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Kirksey | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 14/23 | 99 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −17.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_HOU_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 34; the game landed 33 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 8 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +3.5 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 7% | +0.0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 9 | 34 | 1 | 31% | −1.2 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14% | +0.4 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +1.8 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Troy Hairston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Desmond King | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Hansen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |
| 126 |
| 5.5 |
| 1 |
| −3.3 |
| Malik Willis | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | +0.1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 15% | −1.4 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | −1.1 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −5.9 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monty Rice | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joshua Kalu | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashad Weaver | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Adams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
