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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 22, 2022 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q1 13:43, 3rd and 6, on Trevor Lawrence — 14.0 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:43 · 3rd and 6
Trevor Lawrence
Jets
(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -10 yards (95-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (95-Q.Williams) [95-Q.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-58-C.Lawson at JAX 18. 58-C.Lawson to JAX 16 for 2 yards (69-T.Shatley).
Jacksonville Jaguars 19–3. Biggest swing: Q1 13:43, Jets +14.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 13 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -10 yards (95-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (95-Q.Williams) [95-Q.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-58-C.Lawson at JAX 18. 58-C.Lawson to JAX 16 for 2 yards (69-T.Shatley).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Trevor Lawrence's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:27 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryJets
Jaguars ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 68 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jets’s 56 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Jets 2.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 13 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-1.8 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 68 snaps
Jets-6.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.0 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 89%
Tendencies room →Jaguars45.3%leaned — ran early · −11.5 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 53 early downs
Jets63.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 47%
Tendencies room →Jaguars22.2%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jets15.0%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.5 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±23.3 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Jets100.0%off script — went for it · +69.6 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±32.9 week to week (+2.11× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 43%
Tendencies room →Jaguars17.5%right on their number · −3.1 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets13.9%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jaguars17.5%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets16.7%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 69.6 points above their season mean of 30.4% and 2.1 times their own 32.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
20/31, 229 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2.0 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
9/18, 92 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Evan Engram banked 7.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +7.8 | 75% | 69% | 27% | 20% | 7/8, 113 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 18.3 | +1.5 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 229 yd · 7 car, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | −6.0 | 71% | 58% | 10% | 0% | 22 car, 83 yd · 3/3, 29 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Receiving Back | 10.0 | +3.0 | 39% | 50% | 17% | 4% | 2 car, 6 yd · 5/5, 44 yd |
| Chris StrevelerQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −1.3 | 53% | — | 0% | — | 10/15, 90 yd · 9 car, 54 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +2.5 | 71% | 70% | 13% | 2% | 4/4, 34 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −3.7 | 81% | 89% | 20% | 21% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/6, 22 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.0 | −6.0 | 97% | 88% | 30% | 32% | 4/9, 30 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −1.0 | 43% | 61% | 13% | 25% | 3/4, 15 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +2.6 | 51% | 35% | 3% | 9% | 1/1, 30 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.7 | 81% | 78% | 10% | 4% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Corey DavisWR · Featured Receiver | 3.4 | −6.8 | 97% | 90% | 23% | 34% | 2/7, 14 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB · Receiving Back | 3.1 | −1.1 | 25% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 1/3, 11 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.1 | 18% | 11% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Zonovan KnightRB | 2.3 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −4.5 | 79% | 83% | 13% | 23% | 1 car, -3 yd · 1/4, 14 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 13% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB | 1.8 | −3.6 | 49% | — | 0% | — | 9/18, 92 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 0.7 | −0.3 | 20% | 13% | 0% | — | 2 car, 7 yd |
| Snoop ConnerRB | 0.5 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Braxton BerriosWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. BeathardQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -10 yards (95-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (95-Q.Williams) [95-Q.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-58-C.Lawson at JAX 18. 58-C.Lawson to JAX 16 for 2 yards (69-T.Shatley).
Q1 13:43 · Jaguars · 3rd & 6 at JAX 29 · lost 11 · -5.13 EP · −12.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 96 yards from the JAX 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Jaguars0
Jets3Jaguars3Jets3Jaguars9Jets3Jaguars10Jets3Jaguars13Jets3Jaguars16Jets3Jaguars19Jets3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/31 | 229 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 | +5.4 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 113 | 0 | 27% | +7.7 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 10% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Foyesade Oluokun |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 9/18 | 92 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −8.0 |
| Chris Streveler | 10/15 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.7 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_JAX_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jets closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 22 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 19.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Snoop Conner | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 20% | −1.4 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −0.0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −1.3 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Tre Herndon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Shatley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Streveler | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Zonovan Knight | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 17% | +0.5 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 13% | +2.3 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 30% | −6.9 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| Zonovan Knight | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 23% | −5.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micheal Clemons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
