2022 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 22, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

New York Jets

NYJ -2.5 upsetU 36.5 ✓17 mph windJets closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 19–3. Biggest swing: Q1 13:43, JAX +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:43JAX 0 — NYJ 0JAX ball · 3rd & 6NYJ 58%

(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -10 yards (95-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (95-Q.Williams) [95-Q.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-58-C.Lawson at JAX 18. 58-C.Lawson to JAX 16 for 2 yards (69-T.Shatley).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:43JAX +14% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 19 for -10 yards (95-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (95-Q.Williams) [95-Q.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-58-C.Lawson at JAX 18. 58-C.Lawson to JAX 16 for 2 yards (69-T.Shatley).
Q2 · 11:27NYJ +10% win prob(11:27) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:31NYJ +8% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin pushed ob at JAX 45 for 27 yards (2-R.Jenkins; 23-F.Oluokun).
Q2 · 5:39NYJ +8% win prob(5:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 36 yards (57-C.Mosley).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:41NYJ Field goal
(11:41) 6-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — NYJ 3
Q1 · 7:18JAX Field goal
(7:18) 10-R.Patterson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 11:27JAX Touchdown
(11:27) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 10 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 2:58JAX Field goal
(2:58) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 13 — NYJ 3
Q3 · 7:09JAX Field goal
(7:09) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 16 — NYJ 3
Q4 · 3:49JAX Field goal
(3:49) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 19 — NYJ 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Jets
Offensive plays	68	56
Total yards	368 (edge)	227
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	43% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	53%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	2/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/31, 229 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

9/18, 92 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

22 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Chris StrevelerQB

9 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

7/8 for 113 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

5/5 for 44 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	4	-7	1:24	Fumble
2	NYJ	JAX 16	4	-3	1:59	Field goal +3
3	JAX	JAX 25	11	61	4:22	Field goal +3
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	33	2:34	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 4	17	96	8:15	Touchdown +7
6	NYJ	NYJ 33	7	32	3:47	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 12	8	61	4:44	Field goal +3
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-2	1:04	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 33	7	40	1:26	Missed field goal
10	NYJ	NYJ 34	4	6	0:25	Interception
11	NYJ	NYJ 17	5	9	1:30	Punt
12	JAX	JAX 28	12	59	6:24	Field goal +3
13	NYJ	NYJ 40	5	3	2:02	Punt
14	JAX	NYJ 45	4	5	1:33	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 14	16	83	8:07	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 13	11	48	4:45	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 1	5	21	1:29	Fumble
18	JAX	NYJ 24	4	5	0:24	Field goal +3
19	NYJ	NYJ 26	9	45	2:11	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	JAX 34	3	0	1:35	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 96 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	20/31	229	0	0	1	2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	22	83	3.8	0	-0.3
Trevor Lawrence	7	51	7.3	1	5.4
Jamycal Hasty	3	10	3.3	0	-0.2
Snoop Conner	2	5	2.5	0	-0.8
Christian Kirk	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Zay Jones	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.0
C.J. Beathard	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	7	8	113	27%	7.7
Travis Etienne	3	3	29	10%	0.8
Christian Kirk	3	6	22	20%	-1.4
Dan Arnold	1	1	17	3%	1.6
Marvin Jones	3	4	15	13%	-0.0
Zay Jones	1	4	14	13%	-1.3
Jamycal Hasty	1	3	11	10%	0.4
Jamal Agnew	1	1	8	3%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	4	0.0	0	0
Devin Lloyd	6	3	0.0	1	1
Tyson Campbell	7	0	0.0	0	2
Foyesade Oluokun	3	3	0.0	0	2
Tre Herndon	4	0	0.0	0	0
Davon Hamilton	2	2	1.0	0	0
Andre Cisco	1	2	1.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	1	1.0	0	1
Tyler Shatley	1	0	0.0	0	0
Dawuane Smoot	1	0	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	9/18	92	0	1	3	-8.0
Chris Streveler	10/15	90	0	0	0	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Streveler	9	54	6.0	1.5
Ty Johnson	2	7	3.5	-0.5
Michael Carter	2	6	3.0	-0.4
Zach Wilson	1	1	1.0	-0.4
Zonovan Knight	6	-2	-0.3	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Carter	5	5	44	17%	0.5
Tyler Conklin	4	4	34	13%	2.3
Garrett Wilson	4	9	30	30%	-6.9
C.J. Uzomah	1	1	30	3%	2.4
Elijah Moore	2	3	15	10%	-0.0
Zonovan Knight	1	1	15	3%	1.0
Corey Davis	2	7	14	23%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	7	3	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	4	5	0.0	1
Quincy Williams	3	4	0.0	0
Michael Carter	5	2	0.0	0
Ahmad Gardner	5	2	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	2	0.0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	2	0.0	0
Micheal Clemons	2	2	0.0	0
Jermaine Johnson	1	2	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	0	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -2.5
Closing total: 36.5
JAX moneyline: +123
NYJ moneyline: -136

Jets closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 22 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: JAX 4 days · NYJ 4 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Robert Saleh

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.