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2022 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 26, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

20

Indianapolis Colts

3

LAC -3.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:32, LAC +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3INDLAC
Q1 · 8:32LAC 0IND 0IND ball · 1st & 10LAC 57%

(8:32) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 80-J.Woods INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 11. 43-M.Davis to LAC 41 for 30 yards (80-J.Woods).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:32LAC +9% win prob(8:32) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 80-J.Woods INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 11. 43-M.Davis to LAC 41 for 30 yards (80-J.Woods).
  2. Q2 · 12:25IND +9% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to IND 31 for 16 yards (31-B.Facyson).
  3. Q3 · 1:39LAC +8% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -6 yards (sack split by 99-D.Buckner and 54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [54-D.Odeyingbo], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at LAC 21.
  4. Q1 · 2:01LAC +8% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at IND 26 for -8 yards (9-K.Murray).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 8:44LAC Touchdown

    (8:44) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7IND 0
  2. Q2 · 4:26IND Field goal

    (4:26) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: LAC 7IND 3
  3. Q2 · 0:03LAC Field goal

    (:03) 15-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 10IND 3
  4. Q3 · 6:05LAC Field goal

    (6:05) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 13IND 3
  5. Q4 · 8:23LAC Touchdown

    (8:23) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 20IND 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersColts
Offensive plays6450
Total yards317 (edge)174
Yards per play5.0 (edge)3.5
Expected points added / play-0.05 (edge)-0.57
Success rate50% (edge)34%
Dropback rate56%72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.69
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.00 (edge)-0.28
Third downs8/17 (edge)0/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)8
Sacks taken4 (edge)7
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.57.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

24/31, 235 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.0 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Nick FolesQB

17/29, 144 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-24.7 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

18 att, 67 yds, 2 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

12 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

11/14 for 104 yds, 0 TD

47% of team targets · -1.7 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

4/4 for 76 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 28541:40Punt
2LACLAC 34491:41Punt
3INDIND 158473:26Interception
4LACLAC 41380:45Interception
5INDIND 475102:40Interception
6LACLAC 33411:23Punt
7INDIND 304-42:18Punt
8LACLAC 3014707:26Touchdown +7
9INDIND 139414:20Field goal +3
10LACLAC 2514744:21Field goal +3
11LACLAC 257303:22Punt
12INDIND 22331:35Interception
13LACIND 268234:02Field goal +3
14INDIND 25783:09Punt
15LACLAC 18331:21Fumble
16INDLAC 21491:38Turnover on downs
17LACLAC 1213936:33Touchdown +7
18INDIND 267232:16Turnover on downs
19LACIND 48461:05Punt
20INDIND 206333:04Turnover on downs
21LACLAC 48301:55End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert24/31235014-3.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler18673.721.4
Joshua Kelley9333.70-2.2
Justin Herbert510.200.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen1114104047%-1.7
Mike Williams4476013%9.3
Josh Palmer2316010%1.3
Austin Ekeler4412013%-0.3
Tre' McKitty121007%-1.1
Joshua Kelley11903%0.3
Donald Parham12807%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill371.000
Michael Davis520.013
Alohi Gilman240.000
Bryce Callahan230.000
Morgan Fox312.000
Kenneth Murray211.000
Khalil Mack111.000
Kyle Van Noy201.000
Derwin James020.011
Sebastian Joseph110.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Nick Foles17/29144037-24.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss12655.400.7
Jordan Wilkins144.00-0.3
Nick Foles100.00-4.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jelani Woods3543018%-4.5
Michael Pittman4739025%-0.5
Alec Pierce3426014%3.9
Parris Campbell2519018%-6.9
Deon Jackson339011%-2.4
Zack Moss11504%0.0
Mo Alie-Cox12207%-2.4
Jordan Wilkins01004%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Rodney McLeod360.000
Julian Blackmon440.000
Bobby Okereke620.000
Zaire Franklin341.000
Rodney Thomas510.012
DeForest Buckner131.500
Kwity Paye120.000
Dayo Odeyingbo211.500
Brandon Facyson300.000
E.J. Speed120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Closing total
44.5
LAC moneyline
-185
IND moneyline
+165

Chargers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 23 — under by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
LAC 8 days · IND 9 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Jeff Saturday