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2022 Week 16 · Mon, Dec 26, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles20
BY 17final margin
ColtsIndianapolis3
Los Angeles Chargers 20 at Indianapolis Colts 3. Final.
Chargers -3.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 16
Los Angeles Chargers 20, Colts 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:32, 1st and 10, on Michael Davis — 9.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:32 · 1st and 10
Michael Davis
Chargers
(8:32) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 80-J.Woods INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 11. 43-M.Davis to LAC 41 for 30 yards (80-J.Woods).
Dome
Chargers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Los Angeles Chargers 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:32, Chargers +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike WilliamsChargersQ2 12:25(12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to IND 31 for 16 yards (31-B.Facyson).
9.1pts
Justin HerbertColtsQ3 1:39(1:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -6 yards (sack split by 99-D.Buckner and 54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [54-D.Odeyingbo], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at LAC 21.
8.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 8 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 0 of 10 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.57 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.09 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.69 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Chargers143 of 152 plays carry both curves
(8:32) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 80-J.Woods INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 11. 43-M.Davis to LAC 41 for 30 yards (80-J.Woods).
Swing −9.4 for ColtsExpected points −5.75 for ColtsThe model had Colts 20 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:32LAC +9% win prob(8:32) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 80-J.Woods INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 11. 43-M.Davis to LAC 41 for 30 yards (80-J.Woods).
2nd · 12:25IND +9% win prob(12:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to IND 31 for 16 yards (31-B.Facyson).
3rd · 1:39LAC +8% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -6 yards (sack split by 99-D.Buckner and 54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [54-D.Odeyingbo], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at LAC 21.
1st · 2:01LAC +8% win prob(2:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at IND 26 for -8 yards (9-K.Murray).
1st · 8:50IND +8% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 39 for 3 yards (26-A.Samuel). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 38 for 4 yards (26-A.Samuel).
1st · 7:34LAC +8% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Thomas at IND 42. 25-R.Thomas to IND 47 for 5 yards (13-K.Allen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 8:44 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd8:44Austin Ekeler·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd4:26Chase McLaughlin·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+37–3
2nd0:03Cameron Dicker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+310–3
3rd6:05Cameron Dicker·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+313–3
Chargers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Chargers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.57Colts: −0.57 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Chargers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.69Colts: −0.69 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Chargers: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.28Colts: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 64 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Colts’s 50 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Colts 1.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.57.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 16 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 75.0% in week 3.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.8 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.4% in week 15 against 63.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +11.5 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Colts19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 63.7 points above their season mean of 36.3% and 1.8 times their own 34.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert sacked−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -6 yards (sack split by 99-D.Buckner and 54-D.Odeyingbo). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [54-D.Odeyingbo], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at LAC 21.
Q3 1:39 · Chargers · 3rd & 3 at LAC 25 · lost 4 · -5.06 EP · −16.0% win probability
141 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 133. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 88 yards from the LAC 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
-0.25
Success rate
39%
Yards
488
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3980%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0068%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0632%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-1.7157%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 32
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Chargers 38
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 49
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 45
2nd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chargers6Colts0
Chargers7Colts0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Colts 1
Chargers7Colts3
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Chargers 27
Chargers10Colts3
Field goal19 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Colts 6
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 45
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 25
Chargers13Colts3
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 3
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 43
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 19
4th quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Chargers19Colts3
Chargers20Colts3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Colts 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 42
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 46
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
