2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -2.5 ✓U 38.5 ✓9°F · 21 mphSteelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:50, PIT +23% win probability on one snap. Played in 21 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:50LV 10 — PIT 12PIT ball · 1st & 10LV 50%

(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:50PIT +23% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:38PIT +21% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to LV 24 for 19 yards (27-S.Webb).
Q4 · 0:36LV +16% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 34. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 34 for no gain (13-H.Renfrow). PENALTY on PIT, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 34.
Q3 · 11:57LV +14% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left intended for 83-Co.Heyward INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman at LV 29. 52-D.Perryman to PIT 47 for 24 yards (22-N.Harris, 76-C.Okorafor).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:46LV Touchdown
(6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — PIT 0
Q2 · 1:53PIT Field goal
(1:53) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: LV 7 — PIT 3
Q2 · 0:09LV Field goal
(:09) 2-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 10 — PIT 3
Q4 · 9:52PIT Field goal
(9:52) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: LV 10 — PIT 6
Q4 · 0:50PIT Touchdown
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 10 — PIT 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Steelers
Offensive plays	52	66
Total yards	201	350 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	37%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

26/39, 244 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

16/30, 174 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

16 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

15 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

7/8 for 66 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

5/7 for 64 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 28	16	72	8:22	Touchdown +7
2	PIT	PIT 25	8	18	2:58	Punt
3	LV	LV 18	5	14	2:16	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 25	9	50	4:36	Missed field goal
5	LV	LV 33	5	12	2:09	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 12	15	62	7:50	Field goal +3
7	LV	LV 25	10	53	1:44	Field goal +3
8	PIT	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
9	PIT	PIT 25	7	49	3:12	Interception
10	LV	PIT 47	1	0	0:09	Interception
11	PIT	PIT 44	7	22	4:22	Missed field goal
12	LV	LV 42	5	20	2:37	Interception
13	PIT	PIT 29	4	0	0:27	Punt
14	LV	LV 29	7	12	4:19	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 45	9	43	5:07	Field goal +3
16	LV	LV 29	7	13	3:51	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 21	4	9	1:24	Punt
18	LV	LV 24	4	5	1:37	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 24	11	76	2:09	Touchdown +7
20	LV	LV 29	3	0	0:17	Interception
21	PIT	PIT 19	2	21	0:29	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	16/30	174	1	3	3	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	15	44	2.9	-3.5
Derek Carr	3	14	4.7	0.6
Brandon Bolden	1	0	0.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	4	5	58	0	17%	2.8
Hunter Renfrow	4	7	42	1	23%	2.8
Ameer Abdullah	2	2	27	0	7%	2.5
Foster Moreau	2	3	19	0	10%	-3.9
Davante Adams	2	9	15	0	30%	-2.9
Mack Hollins	1	2	7	0	7%	-0.4
Josh Jacobs	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Keelan Cole	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Luke Masterson	5	4	0	0
Trevon Moehrig	4	3	0	0
Nate Hobbs	4	1	0	0
Maxx Crosby	2	2	0	0
Tyler Hall	2	2	0	1
Amik Robertson	3	1	0	0
Sam Webb	4	0	0	0
Duron Harmon	2	2	0	0
Denzel Perryman	2	2	1	1
Bilal Nichols	1	3	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	26/39	244	1	1	0	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	16	53	3.3	-3.2
Jaylen Warren	6	23	3.8	-1.2
Connor Heyward	1	21	21.0	-0.1
Kenny Pickett	3	9	3.0	3.1
Derek Watt	1	0	0.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Freiermuth	7	8	66	0	22%	1.6
Diontae Johnson	5	7	64	0	19%	5.8
George Pickens	5	5	57	1	14%	5.1
Najee Harris	6	9	42	0	25%	-1.3
Jaylen Warren	1	2	7	0	6%	0.8
Steven Sims	1	1	7	0	3%	0.5
Zach Gentry	1	1	1	0	3%	-1.5
Connor Heyward	0	3	0	0	8%	-7.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	5	5	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	3	2.0	0	1
Cameron Sutton	1	2	0.0	1	2
Larry Ogunjobi	2	1	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	3	0	0.0	0	1
Devin Bush	1	2	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	0	0.0	0	0
Montravius Adams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Allen	1	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	1	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -2.5
Closing total: 38.5
LV moneyline: +127
PIT moneyline: -141

Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 23 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 9°F, wind 21 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: LV 6 days · PIT 6 days
Coaches: Josh McDaniels vs Mike Tomlin

Wind at 21 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.