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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q4 0:50, 1st and 10, on George Pickens — 23.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:50, Steelers +23.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:50 · 1st and 10
George Pickens
Steelers
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Steelers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Pickens's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
George Pickens14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny PickettLead never changed again+710–135 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 1, Steelers 1.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 27.5% in week 15 against 56.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-0.7 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 52 snaps
Steelers-5.9 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Raiders60.0%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 40 early downs
Steelers56.0%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 47%
Tendencies room →Raiders17.1%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Steelers7.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 115%
Fourth Down room →Raiders—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.4%.
Steelers40.0%inside their normal wobble · +21.7 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 65%
Tendencies room →Raiders5.0%leaned — sat back · −19.0 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers20.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Raiders10.0%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers14.3%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
LV's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 5.0%, 19.0 points below their season mean of 24.0% and 1.5 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
26/39, 244 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.4 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
Passing · LV
16/30, 174 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-5.3 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Pickens banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.7 | +9.3 | 81% | 95% | 14% | 26% | 5/5, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 15.5 | −3.8 | 72% | 68% | 25% | 10% | 16 car, 53 yd · 6/9, 42 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Featured Receiver | 14.2 | +4.8 | 47% | 66% | 23% | 30% | 4/7, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | +3.5 | 81% | 90% | 22% | 24% | 7/8, 66 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | +1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/39, 244 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 9 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | +1.4 | 88% | 98% | 19% | 39% | 5/7, 64 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +1.7 | 40% | 49% | 17% | 27% | 4/5, 58 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 6.4 | −4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 174 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 3 car, 14 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.0 | −2.5 | 81% | 74% | 3% | 1% | 15 car, 44 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 4.7 | +2.0 | 19% | 29% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 4.0 | −1.6 | 31% | 35% | 6% | 0% | 6 car, 23 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.9 | 68% | 57% | 10% | 8% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.5 | −9.1 | 96% | 94% | 30% | 27% | 2/9, 15 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 2.1 | −2.1 | 19% | 15% | 8% | 0% | 1 car, 21 yd · 0/3, 0 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.0 | 94% | 91% | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.5 | 49% | 60% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.1 | 43% | 28% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.0 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 23% | 20% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Benny SnellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:50 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at LV 14 · gained 14 · +2.59 EP · +23.9% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 76 yards from the PIT 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Raiders6
Steelers0Raiders7Steelers0Raiders7Steelers3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders10Steelers3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Raiders10Steelers6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Raiders10Steelers12Raiders10Steelers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 16/30 | 174 | 1 | 3 | 3 | −5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Brandon Bolden |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 17% | +2.8 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Masterson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 26/39 | 244 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_LV_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 23 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.9 |
| +2.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +2.5 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | −3.9 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 30% | −2.9 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Hall | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Webb | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bilal Nichols | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Derek Watt | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 22% | +1.6 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 19% | +5.8 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 14% | +5.1 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 25% | −1.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Connor Heyward | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −7.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Sutton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montravius Adams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Allen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
