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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Las Vegas Raiders 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers 13. Final.
Steelers -2.5 ✓U 38.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 13, Raiders 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:50, 1st and 10, on George Pickens — 23.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:50 · 1st and 10
George Pickens
Steelers
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8°F
Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:50, Steelers +23.4% win probability on one snap.
23.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Najee HarrisSteelersQ4 1:38(1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to LV 24 for 19 yards (27-S.Webb).
21.2pts
Cameron SuttonSteelersQ4 0:36(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 34. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 34 for no gain (13-H.Renfrow). PENALTY on PIT, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 34.
16.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Steelers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Raiders146 of 156 plays carry both curves
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +23.4 for SteelersExpected points +2.59 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 4 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:50PIT +23% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:38PIT +21% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to LV 24 for 19 yards (27-S.Webb).
4th · 0:36LV +16% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton [99-L.Ogunjobi] at PIT 34. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 34 for no gain (13-H.Renfrow). PENALTY on PIT, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 34.
3rd · 11:57LV +14% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left intended for 83-Co.Heyward INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman at LV 29. 52-D.Perryman to PIT 47 for 24 yards (22-N.Harris, 76-C.Okorafor).
3rd · 11:48LV +14% win prob(11:48) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 35-A.Maulet at PIT 32. 35-A.Maulet to PIT 44 for 12 yards (28-J.Jacobs).
3rd · 7:22LV +13% win prob(7:22) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
George Pickens's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Raiders: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.04Steelers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Raiders: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 52 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 1, Steelers 1.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 27.5% in week 15 against 56.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers14.3%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteLV's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 5.0%, 19.0 points below their season mean of 24.0% and 1.5 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%53 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorG · Every snap100%53 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%53 snaps
64Alex BarsG · Every snap100%53 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%53 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time96%51 snaps
10Mack HollinsWR · Full-time94%50 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Full-time81%43 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational47%25 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Rotational40%21 snaps
45Jakob JohnsonFB · Rotational25%13 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Situational23%12 snaps
22Ameer AbdullahRB · Situational19%10 snaps
34Brandon BoldenRB · Situational4%2 snaps
77Thayer MunfordT · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Rock Ya-SinCBTashawn BowerDEMatthew ButlerDTNetane MutiGZamir WhiteRBJackson BartonT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Pickett pass+24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:50 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at LV 14 · gained 14 · +2.59 EP · +23.9% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 76 yards from the PIT 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
551
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1161%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1475%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.3165%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.3433%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Raiders6Steelers0
Raiders7Steelers0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Steelers 14
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Raiders 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 41
2nd quarter40 plays
No good6 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 23
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 45
Raiders7Steelers3
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Raiders 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Raiders10Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Steelers 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Raiders 35
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
No good8 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Raiders 33
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Steelers 41
Punt4 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 41
4th quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Raiders10Steelers6
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Raiders 22
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 30
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Raiders10Steelers12
Raiders10Steelers13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Raiders 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -2.5
Closing total
38.5
Raiders moneyline
+127
Steelers moneyline
-141
Steelers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 23 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 8°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; 0.01 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Raiders 6 days · Steelers 6 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Mike Tomlin
2nd · 0:32PIT +13% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 83-D.Waller to PIT 22 for 34 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick). PIT-21-T.Norwood was injured during the play.
3rd · 4:44LV +10% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT 29. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 29 for no gain (13-H.Renfrow).
