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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q3 3:06, 2nd and 11, on Daniel Sorensen — 20.3 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:06 · 2nd and 11
Daniel Sorensen
Saints
(3:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen (27-A.Taylor) at NO 49. 25-D.Sorensen to CLE 15 for 36 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
New Orleans Saints 17–10. Biggest swing: Q3 3:06, Saints +20.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 28 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — -0.33 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(3:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen (27-A.Taylor) at NO 49. 25-D.Sorensen to CLE 15 for 36 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Alvin Kamara's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 1:01 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBrowns
Saints ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 28% dropback rate against Browns’s 67 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Browns 3.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's pass rate over expected, −31.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 6.8 points clear of the next team along.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
NO's early-down pass rate, 15.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 11.2 points clear of the next team along.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
CLE's pass rate over expected, −23.4 pts, is past their previous low of −15.5 pts in week 13 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 2.9% in week 10 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
15 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
CLE's blitz rate sent, 6.7%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 8 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
15 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
NO's play-action rate turned over: 23.8% in week 15 against 6.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
15 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-31.1 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −24.3 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−2.53× that swing) · 53 snaps
Browns-23.4 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −15.9 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−2.28× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 10% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints15.8%off script — ran early · −34.3 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−2.24× that swing) · 38 early downs
Browns36.2%leaned — ran early · −14.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 43%
Tendencies room →Saints6.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −6.8 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
Browns30.3%leaned — faked the run · +11.5 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Saints0.0%inside their normal wobble · −14.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Browns50.0%right on their number · −7.4 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 55%
Tendencies room →Saints12.1%right on their number · −6.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns6.7%leaned — sat back · −17.0 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 29%
Tendencies room →Saints9.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
NO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -31.1 pts, 24.3 points below their season mean of -6.8 pts and 2.5 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
15/31, 135 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-15.5 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
Passing · NO
8/15, 92 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.0 expected points added · -11.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Taysom Hill banked 2.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 19.0 | +1.7 | 70% | 73% | 29% | 3% | 20 car, 76 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 34 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | −1.5 | 89% | 88% | 37% | 43% | 6/10, 72 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/31, 135 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Taysom HillQB | 11.6 | +2.4 | 46% | — | 0% | — | 9 car, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.2 | −3.1 | 53% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 24 car, 92 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.1 | +1.8 | 43% | 93% | 36% | 19% | 4/5, 41 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Receiving Back | 5.2 | −1.3 | 47% | 70% | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 8 yd · 3/3, 14 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 3.4 | −3.7 | 97% | 97% | 19% | 19% | 2/5, 14 yd |
| David JohnsonRB | 3.4 | −1.4 | 28% | 33% | 7% | 3% | 7 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.1 | 73% | 82% | 7% | 7% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.2 | 50% | 67% | 14% | 18% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 1.6 | −2.3 | 72% | — | 0% | — | 8/15, 92 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Mike WoodsWR | 1.5 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 1.2 | −5.1 | 97% | 100% | 19% | 22% | 1/5, 2 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 0.5 | −0.3 | 33% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 5 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Keith KirkwoodWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 30% | 53% | 14% | 37% | 0/2, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen (27-A.Taylor) at NO 49. 25-D.Sorensen to CLE 15 for 36 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
Q3 3:06 · Browns · 2nd & 11 at CLE 42 · gained nothing · -6.64 EP · −16.9% win probability
146 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 68 yards from the NO 27 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Saints0
Browns6Saints0Browns7Saints0Browns10Saints3Browns10Saints9Browns10Saints10Browns10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Saints16Browns10Saints17Browns10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 8/15 | 92 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 1 | +2.0 |
| David Johnson | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 36% | +1.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 29% | −0.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrann Mathieu | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Sorensen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/31 | 135 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −15.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_NO_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 32; the game landed 27 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 28 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Adam Prentice | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −3.6 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −3.2 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Hansen | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Evans | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |
| 92 |
| 3.8 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 10 | 72 | 0 | 37% | +7.6 |
| David Bell | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | −5.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −0.6 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 19% | −3.3 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19% | −5.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fields | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Ragland | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Winovich | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taven Bryan | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
