2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Cleveland Browns

CLE -3 upsetU 32 ✓6°F · 27 mphBrowns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 17–10. Biggest swing: Q3 3:06, NO +20% win probability on one snap. Played in 27 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:06NO 10 — CLE 10CLE ball · 2nd & 11CLE 60%

(3:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen (27-A.Taylor) at NO 49. 25-D.Sorensen to CLE 15 for 36 yards (75-J.Bitonio).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:06NO +20% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 18-Dav.Bell INTERCEPTED by 25-D.Sorensen (27-A.Taylor) at NO 49. 25-D.Sorensen to CLE 15 for 36 yards (75-J.Bitonio).
Q1 · 2:57NO +15% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Delpit at CLE 30. 22-G.Delpit to NO 30 for 40 yards (78-E.McCoy; 14-A.Dalton).
Q3 · 9:45CLE +12% win prob(9:45) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:00NO +9% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 15:00CLE Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — CLE 7
Q2 · 4:11CLE Field goal
(4:11) 3-C.York 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: NO 0 — CLE 10
Q2 · 0:03NO Field goal
(:03) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: NO 3 — CLE 10
Q3 · 9:45NO Touchdown
(9:45) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — CLE 10
Q3 · 1:01NO Touchdown
(1:01) (No Huddle) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — CLE 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Browns
Offensive plays	53	67
Total yards	245	249 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	38% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	28%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33 (edge)	-0.47
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	7/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	13	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

15/31, 135 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-15.5 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

8/15, 92 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -11.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

24 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

20 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

6/10 for 72 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

4/5 for 41 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 40	5	2	1:35	Punt
2	NO	NO 1	4	7	1:32	Punt
3	CLE	NO 49	4	6	1:19	Punt
4	NO	NO 20	11	48	5:24	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 3	4	2	1:32	Punt
6	NO	CLE 45	3	0	0:54	Interception
7	CLE	NO 30	6	30	2:49	Touchdown +7
8	NO	NO 25	5	6	2:04	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 28	17	80	8:44	Field goal +3
10	NO	NO 27	11	53	4:07	Field goal +3
11	NO	NO 33	11	67	5:20	Touchdown +7
12	CLE	CLE 29	7	21	3:17	Punt
13	NO	NO 9	4	8	2:10	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 43	2	9	1:18	Interception
15	NO	CLE 15	5	15	2:00	Touchdown +7
16	CLE	CLE 41	8	17	2:29	Punt
17	NO	NO 10	7	40	3:45	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 10	6	29	2:46	Turnover on downs
19	NO	CLE 39	4	1	1:39	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 20	18	53	4:57	Turnover on downs
21	NO	NO 22	1	0	0:19	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 80 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	8/15	92	0	1	0	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	20	76	3.8	1	-0.6
Taysom Hill	9	56	6.2	1	2.0
David Johnson	7	16	2.3	0	-2.8
Adam Prentice	2	5	2.5	0	0.3
Andy Dalton	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	4	5	41	36%	1.9
Alvin Kamara	2	4	34	29%	-0.0
Juwan Johnson	1	2	9	14%	-3.6
David Johnson	1	1	8	7%	1.9
Keith Kirkwood	0	2	0	14%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrann Mathieu	6	5	0.0	0	0
Kaden Elliss	4	2	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	4	2	0.0	0	1
Daniel Sorensen	1	5	0.0	1	1
Cameron Jordan	3	2	0.0	0	0
Chase Hansen	2	2	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	3	1	1.0	0	0
Justin Evans	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kentavius Street	0	3	0.5	0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	15/31	135	0	1	2	-15.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	24	92	3.8	0	-0.5
Deshaun Watson	3	24	8.0	1	3.1
Kareem Hunt	7	8	1.1	0	-4.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	6	10	72	37%	7.6
David Bell	1	2	18	7%	-5.4
Kareem Hunt	3	3	14	11%	-0.6
David Njoku	2	5	14	19%	-3.3
Nick Chubb	1	1	10	4%	1.0
Mike Woods	1	1	5	4%	-0.6
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	5	2	19%	-5.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tony Fields	6	4	0	0
Reggie Ragland	5	3	0	0
Grant Delpit	4	3	1	1
Chase Winovich	4	2	0	0
John Johnson	4	2	0	0
Deion Jones	2	1	0	0
Jordan Elliott	1	1	0	0
Myles Garrett	1	1	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	1	0	0	0
Taven Bryan	1	0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -3
Closing total: 32
NO moneyline: +162
CLE moneyline: -181

Browns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 32; the game landed 27 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 6°F, wind 27 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NO 6 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 27 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.