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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Giants174 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:04) 1-G.Joseph 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Swing +35.1 for VikingsExpected points +1.56 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 5 points higher than the market did.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04MIN +35% win prob(:04) 1-G.Joseph 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
4th · 0:25NYG +21% win prob(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 41 for -7 yards (21-L.Collins).
4th · 14:18MIN +18% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:19MIN +17% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to NYG 42 for 17 yards (20-J.Love).
4th · 11:50NYG +17% win prob(11:50) 8-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 18-I.Hodgins INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson [94-D.Tomlinson] at MIN 18. 7-P.Peterson pushed ob at MIN 29 for 11 yards (78-A.Thomas).
4th · 2:07MIN +16% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 61-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:04Greg Joseph·61-yd field goal61-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+324–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryVikings
Giants6–3Vikings
447Total yards353
6.7Yards per play5.0
51%Success rate46%
27%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays3
24First downs21
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Giants: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Giants: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.00Vikings: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 67 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Vikings’s 70 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Vikings 4.
NoteGiants outgained Vikings 447-353 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +12.0 pts, is past their previous high of +10.7 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 15.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, +7.8 pts, is past their previous high of +5.6 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Vikings18.0%
leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.0 pts, 9.5 points above their season mean of 2.5 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Joseph+30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 1-G.Joseph 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q4 0:04 · Vikings · 2nd & 10 at NYG 42 · gained nothing · +1.56 EP · +29.9% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 84 yards from the MIN 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
800
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0371%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0983%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1944%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3043%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0967%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0533%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 49
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 48
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 23
Punt5 plays
Giants0Vikings6
Giants0Vikings7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Giants 12
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 49
2nd quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Giants0Vikings10
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Giants 16
Giants6Vikings10
Giants7Vikings10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Vikings 7
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Vikings 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 47
3rd quarter36 plays
Giants10Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 26
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Giants13Vikings10
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Vikings 19
The period ended11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 25
4th quarter61 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants13Vikings16
Giants13Vikings17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 15
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 32
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Giants 44
Giants16Vikings17
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Vikings 37
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 31
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Giants16Vikings23
Giants16Vikings24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Giants22Vikings24
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Giants24Vikings24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Vikings 27
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
Giants24Vikings27
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Giants 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -4.5
Closing total
48
Giants moneyline
+191
Vikings moneyline
-215
Vikings closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Giants 6 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Kevin O'Connell
MIN +14% win prob
(3:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward].
4th · 4:10NYG +13% win prob(4:10) 6-J.Gillan punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-58-C.Kreiter, recovered by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 23. 20-J.Love to NYG 29 for 6 yards (45-T.Dye).
