2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · AT&T Stadium

Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -4 ✓O 48 ✓DomeCowboys closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.

Dallas Cowboys 40–34. Biggest swing: Q4 8:02, DAL +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:02PHI 34 — DAL 27DAL ball · 3rd & 30PHI 83%

(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 16-T.Hilton to PHI 19 for 52 yards (33-J.Scott).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:02DAL +24% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 16-T.Hilton to PHI 19 for 52 yards (33-J.Scott).
Q1 · 9:28PHI +24% win prob(9:28) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 94-J.Sweat at DAL 42. 94-J.Sweat for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:19PHI +22% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 24 for -1 yards (91-C.Watkins). FUMBLES (91-C.Watkins), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at PHI 21.
Q3 · 4:15PHI +21% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 36, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Kearse at PHI 37. 27-J.Kearse to PHI 31 for 6 yards (10-G.Minshew).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:18PHI Field goal
(11:18) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — DAL 0
Q1 · 9:28PHI Touchdown
(9:28) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 94-J.Sweat at DAL 42. 94-J.Sweat for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — DAL 0
Q1 · 1:54DAL Touchdown
(1:54) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — DAL 7
Q2 · 11:41DAL Touchdown
(11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — DAL 14
Q2 · 7:15PHI Touchdown
(7:15) 10-G.Minshew up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 17 — DAL 14
Q2 · 1:52DAL Field goal
(1:52) 19-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: PHI 17 — DAL 17
Q2 · 0:11PHI Field goal
(:11) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. Penalty on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: PHI 20 — DAL 17
Q3 · 9:05PHI Touchdown
(9:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 27 — DAL 17
Q3 · 5:05DAL Field goal
(5:05) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: PHI 27 — DAL 20
Q3 · 2:19DAL Touchdown
(2:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 27 — DAL 27
Q4 · 10:03PHI Touchdown
(10:03) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-J.Kearse, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 34 — DAL 27
Q4 · 5:53DAL Touchdown
(5:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 34 — DAL 34
Q4 · 2:24DAL Field goal
(2:24) 19-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: PHI 34 — DAL 37
Q4 · 1:44DAL Field goal
(1:44) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: PHI 34 — DAL 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Cowboys
Offensive plays	68	70
Total yards	442 (edge)	421
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	60%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	-0.14 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	8/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	23	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	6
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Eagles outgained Cowboys 442–421 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Gardner MinshewQB

24/40, 355 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

16.8 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

27/35, 347 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

5.7 expected points added · +8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

21 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-9.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

16 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

10/11 for 120 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

8/12 for 113 yds, 2 TD

35% of team targets · 12.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	8	68	3:44	Field goal +3
2	DAL	DAL 25	6	22	1:58	Defensive touchdown
3	DAL	DAL 25	16	75	7:26	Touchdown +7
4	PHI	PHI 25	5	18	2:00	Interception
5	DAL	PHI 47	7	42	3:18	Touchdown +7
6	PHI	PHI 26	12	74	4:26	Touchdown +7
7	DAL	DAL 25	14	72	5:19	Field goal +3
8	PHI	PHI 25	11	36	1:43	Field goal +3
9	DAL	DAL 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
10	DAL	DAL 14	5	6	1:23	Punt
11	PHI	PHI 23	11	77	4:37	Touchdown +7
12	DAL	DAL 25	10	49	3:59	Field goal +3
13	PHI	PHI 25	3	9	0:50	Fumble
14	DAL	PHI 31	6	31	1:59	Touchdown +7
15	PHI	PHI 25	15	75	7:13	Touchdown +7
16	DAL	DAL 25	10	75	4:10	Touchdown +7
17	PHI	PHI 22	6	32	1:30	Interception
18	DAL	DAL 40	6	31	2:00	Field goal +3
19	PHI	PHI 25	2	-3	0:12	Fumble
20	DAL	PHI 21	5	18	0:26	Field goal +3
21	PHI	PHI 25	10	56	1:27	Turnover on downs
22	DAL	DAL 19	1	0	0:14	End of game

13 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	24/40	355	2	2	0	16.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	21	65	3.1	0	-9.0
Kenneth Gainwell	4	17	4.3	0	-0.2
Gardner Minshew	4	5	1.3	1	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	8	12	113	2	35%	12.6
A.J. Brown	6	8	103	0	24%	6.1
Dallas Goedert	3	3	67	0	9%	4.9
Kenneth Gainwell	4	4	41	0	12%	3.5
Quez Watkins	1	5	19	0	15%	-8.1
Miles Sanders	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Zach Pascal	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
T.J. Edwards	8	6	0.0	0	0
Reed Blankenship	4	4	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	3	3	0.5	0	0
Marcus Epps	5	1	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	4	0	2.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	3	1	0.0	0	0
Avonte Maddox	3	0	1.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	1	2	1.5	1	1
Milton Williams	3	0	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	2	1	0.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	27/35	347	3	1	6	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	16	55	3.4	1	-1.4
Dak Prescott	6	41	6.8	0	3.4
Tony Pollard	9	19	2.1	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	10	11	120	2	31%	9.3
Tony Pollard	6	8	61	0	23%	2.7
T.Y. Hilton	1	1	52	0	3%	4.9
Dalton Schultz	3	4	43	0	11%	-7.4
Michael Gallup	4	7	36	1	20%	1.6
Jake Ferguson	1	1	24	0	3%	1.3
Ezekiel Elliott	1	1	6	0	3%	1.6
Noah Brown	1	2	5	0	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Nahshon Wright	6	2	0	2
Anthony Barr	4	3	0	0
Donovan Wilson	5	1	0	0
Malik Hooker	4	0	0	0
Daron Bland	3	1	1	1
Damone Clark	2	2	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	1	2	0	0
Micah Parsons	2	1	0	0
Carlos Watkins	1	1	0	0
Luke Gifford	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -4
Closing total: 48
PHI moneyline: +178
DAL moneyline: -200

Cowboys closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 48; the game landed 74 — over by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: PHI 6 days · DAL 6 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.