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Philadelphia Eagles 34 at Dallas Cowboys 40. Final.
Cowboys -4 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 16
Dallas Cowboys 40, Eagles 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:02, 3rd and 30, on T.Y. Hilton — 24.3 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:02 · 3rd and 30
T.Y. Hilton
Cowboys
(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 16-T.Hilton to PHI 19 for 52 yards (33-J.Scott).
Dome
Cowboys closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Dallas Cowboys 40–34. Biggest swing: Q4 8:02, Cowboys +24.3% win probability on one snap.
24.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh SweatEaglesQ1 9:28(9:28) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 94-J.Sweat at DAL 42. 94-J.Sweat for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.6pts
Miles SandersCowboysQ4 2:19(2:19) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 24 for -1 yards (91-C.Watkins). FUMBLES (91-C.Watkins), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at PHI 21.
21.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.18 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Eagles179 of 189 plays carry both curves
(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 16-T.Hilton to PHI 19 for 52 yards (33-J.Scott).
Swing +24.3 for CowboysExpected points +4.87 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:02DAL +24% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 16-T.Hilton to PHI 19 for 52 yards (33-J.Scott).
1st · 9:28PHI +24% win prob(9:28) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 94-J.Sweat at DAL 42. 94-J.Sweat for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:19PHI +22% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 24 for -1 yards (91-C.Watkins). FUMBLES (91-C.Watkins), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at PHI 21.
3rd · 4:15PHI +21% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 36, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Kearse at PHI 37. 27-J.Kearse to PHI 31 for 6 yards (10-G.Minshew).
2nd · 11:41DAL +21% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:03DAL +18% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-J.Kearse, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brett Maher's 48-yard field goal with 2:24 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st11:18Jake Elliott·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap R.Lovato+33–0
4th5:53CeeDee Lamb·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+734–34
4th2:24Brett Maher·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.OvertonLead never changed again+334–37
4th1:44Brett Maher·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.Overton+334–40
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCowboys
Eagles5–2Cowboys
442Total yards421
6.5Yards per play6.0
49%Success rate47%
57%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays9
23First downs24
0Sacks taken6
4Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Eagles: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Eagles: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.48Eagles: −0.48 expected points added per play
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 68 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Cowboys 6.
NoteEagles outgained Cowboys 442-421 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 3.6% in week 14 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Cowboys0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −16.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 16.8 points below their season mean of 16.8% and 1.9 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−26% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:28) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 94-J.Sweat at DAL 42. 94-J.Sweat for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:28 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 47 · gained nothing · -9.91 EP · −25.6% win probability
177 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 77 yards from the PHI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
861
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0965%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0959%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0363%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.9725%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.0840%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0520%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Eagles3Cowboys0
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 7
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Eagles9Cowboys0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 47
Eagles10Cowboys0
Eagles10Cowboys6
Eagles10Cowboys7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 45
2nd quarter54 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Eagles10Cowboys13
Eagles10Cowboys14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Eagles 36
Eagles16Cowboys14
Eagles17Cowboys14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Cowboys 1
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Eagles17Cowboys17
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 3
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles20Cowboys17
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 20
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Eagles26Cowboys17
Eagles27Cowboys17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Cowboys 13
Eagles27Cowboys20
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Eagles27Cowboys26
Eagles27Cowboys27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 35
4th quarter56 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Eagles33Cowboys27
Eagles34Cowboys27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 49 to the Cowboys 9
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles34Cowboys33
Eagles34Cowboys34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 7
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Cowboys 46
Eagles34Cowboys37
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Eagles 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles34Cowboys40
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 19
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
