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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:29 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Seahawks159 of 170 plays carry both curves
(14:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray pushed ob at KC 37 for 8 yards (57-C.Barton).
Swing +5.7 for ChiefsExpected points +0.58 for ChiefsThe model had Seahawks 24 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:55KC +6% win prob(14:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray pushed ob at KC 37 for 8 yards (57-C.Barton).
1st · 12:45KC +6% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 16 for 9 yards (32-N.Bolton).
1st · 9:50KC +3% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon ran ob at SEA 25 for 16 yards (57-C.Barton; 27-T.Woolen).
1st · 6:46KC +3% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 19-K.Toney for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:01SEA +3% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 6 for -9 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). SEA-7-G.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
1st · 6:31KC +2% win prob(6:31) 78-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to KC 45 for 3 yards (50-W.Gay; 32-N.Bolton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kadarius Toney's 8-yard touchdown catch with 6:46 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:46Kadarius Toney·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd9:02Jerick McKinnon·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–14
2nd2:44Harrison Butker·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–17
2nd0:01Jason Myers·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–17
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Seahawks: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.01Chiefs: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Seahawks: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Seahawks: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.20Chiefs: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 73 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 51 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Chiefs 3.
NoteSeahawks outgained Chiefs 333-297 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's play-action rate turned over: 10.9% in week 15 against 29.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 15 against 50.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chiefs15.9%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 4.5%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 25.8% and 2.6 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+7% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to SEA 9 for 27 yards (39-T.Tabor). Penalty on SEA-39-T.Tabor, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q2 10:13 · Chiefs · 3rd & 5 at SEA 36 · gained 27 · +2.53 EP · +7.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 90 yards from the SEA 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
39%
Yards
630
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.2671%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1456%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1835%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1183%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.3920%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chiefs 37
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Seahawks 16
Seahawks0Chiefs6
Seahawks0Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Seahawks 8
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Chiefs 41
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Seahawks 42
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 22
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 37
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 20
Seahawks0Chiefs13
Seahawks0Chiefs14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Seahawks 9
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 42
Seahawks0Chiefs17
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Seahawks 29
Seahawks3Chiefs17
Field goal16 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Chiefs 3
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 29
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 40
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Chiefs 34
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 46
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Chiefs 28
4th quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 24
Intercepted10 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Chiefs 20
Seahawks3Chiefs23
Seahawks3Chiefs24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks9Chiefs24
Seahawks10Chiefs24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Chiefs 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Seahawks 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Chiefs 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
