2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -10.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓12°FChiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Kansas City Chiefs 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 14:55, KC +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:55SEA 0 — KC 0KC ball · 1st & 10KC 80%

(14:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray pushed ob at KC 37 for 8 yards (57-C.Barton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:55KC +6% win prob(14:55) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray pushed ob at KC 37 for 8 yards (57-C.Barton).
Q1 · 12:45KC +6% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 16 for 9 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q1 · 9:50KC +3% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon ran ob at SEA 25 for 16 yards (57-C.Barton; 27-T.Woolen).
Q1 · 6:46KC +3% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 19-K.Toney for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:46KC Touchdown
(6:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 19-K.Toney for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 0 — KC 7
Q2 · 9:02KC Touchdown
(9:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 0 — KC 14
Q2 · 2:44KC Field goal
(2:44) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: SEA 0 — KC 17
Q2 · 0:01SEA Field goal
(:01) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — KC 17
Q4 · 4:50KC Touchdown
(4:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 3 — KC 24
Q4 · 2:31SEA Touchdown
(2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 10 — KC 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Chiefs
Offensive plays	73	51
Total yards	333 (edge)	297
Yards per play	4.6	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	33%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	2/14	3/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Seahawks outgained Chiefs 333–297 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

16/28, 224 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.2 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

25/40, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-18.2 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

26 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

14 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/8 for 113 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

7/9 for 81 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 29	5	8	0:45	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 7	5	14	2:22	Punt
3	KC	KC 37	10	58	5:12	Touchdown +7
4	SEA	KC 48	5	7	2:30	Turnover on downs
5	KC	KC 41	5	12	1:37	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 20	4	2	1:06	Punt
7	KC	KC 30	4	7	1:28	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 16	4	-5	2:43	Punt
9	KC	KC 47	8	53	3:21	Touchdown +7
10	SEA	SEA 28	8	14	3:28	Punt
11	KC	KC 28	6	43	2:48	Field goal +3
12	SEA	SEA 7	12	66	2:40	Field goal +3
13	SEA	SEA 25	5	4	0:55	Punt
14	KC	KC 33	4	7	1:05	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 18	10	48	5:36	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 34	6	12	2:53	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 26	7	57	4:38	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 22	4	9	1:30	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 45	9	33	5:41	Interception
20	KC	KC 20	6	80	3:00	Touchdown +7
21	SEA	SEA 25	12	75	2:17	Touchdown +7
22	KC	SEA 44	5	8	1:19	Turnover on downs
23	SEA	SEA 36	4	18	1:06	End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	25/40	215	1	1	2	-18.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenneth Walker	26	107	4.1	-3.0
Geno Smith	3	16	5.3	4.9
DeeJay Dallas	2	10	5.0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	7	9	81	0	24%	2.3
Colby Parkinson	3	4	45	0	11%	-2.4
DeeJay Dallas	6	6	32	0	16%	-1.1
Laquon Treadwell	3	7	26	0	18%	-4.6
Will Dissly	1	1	19	0	3%	1.4
Noah Fant	2	3	12	1	8%	1.0
Penny Hart	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.6
Marquise Goodwin	0	4	0	0	11%	-7.2
Kenneth Walker	2	2	-2	0	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cody Barton	5	4	0.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	4	3	0.0	1
Shelby Harris	2	4	0.0	0
Poona Ford	2	2	0.0	0
Darrell Taylor	2	2	1.0	0
Michael Jackson	2	1	0.0	1
Boye Mafe	2	1	0.0	0
Teez Tabor	2	1	0.0	0
Myles Adams	1	1	0.0	0
Tariq Woolen	1	1	0.0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	16/28	224	2	0	1	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	14	58	4.1	0	0.0
Patrick Mahomes	2	8	4.0	1	2.6
Jerick McKinnon	5	7	1.4	0	-3.5
Ronald Jones	1	4	4.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	8	113	0	30%	4.0
Isiah Pacheco	1	2	32	0	7%	1.3
Jerick McKinnon	3	3	31	1	11%	3.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	4	27	0	15%	-0.6
Kadarius Toney	1	2	8	1	7%	1.1
Noah Gray	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
Skyy Moore	1	1	5	0	4%	0.3
Justin Watson	0	4	0	0	15%	-4.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	7	10	0.0	0	0
Willie Gay	2	7	0.0	0	2
Justin Reid	5	3	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	2	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	3	2	0.0	1	1
Trent McDuffie	1	3	0.0	0	0
Bryan Cook	3	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	2	2	1.0	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10.5
Closing total: 50.5
SEA moneyline: +367
KC moneyline: -447

Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 34 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 12°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: SEA 9 days · KC 6 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Andy Reid