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2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · State Farm Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

19

Arizona Cardinals

16

TB -7.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:53, TB +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4ARI ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 4:53TB 13 — ARI 16ARI ball · 3rd & 1ARI 76%

(4:53) 19-T.McSorley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 48, RECOVERED by TB-92-W.Gholston at TB 45.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:53TB +28% win prob(4:53) 19-T.McSorley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 48, RECOVERED by TB-92-W.Gholston at TB 45.
  2. OT · 9:19ARI +20% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short right to 2-M.Brown to ARI 34 for 10 yards (45-D.White). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short right to 2-M.Brown to ARI 35 for 11 yards (45-D.White).
  3. OT · 7:50ARI +19% win prob(7:50) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to TB 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
  4. Q4 · 0:04ARI +19% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Neal at TB 5. 22-K.Neal to TB 5 for no gain (85-T.McBride).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:27TB Field goal

    (13:27) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — ARI 0
  2. Q1 · 0:37ARI Field goal

    (:37) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — ARI 3
  3. Q2 · 8:18TB Field goal

    (8:18) 3-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — ARI 3
  4. Q2 · 0:12ARI Field goal

    (:12) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — ARI 6
  5. Q4 · 14:11ARI Field goal

    (14:11) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — ARI 9
  6. Q4 · 10:53ARI Touchdown

    (10:53) 6-J.Conner left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 6 — ARI 16
  7. Q4 · 8:07TB Touchdown

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 29-R.White for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 13 — ARI 16
  8. Q4 · 2:31TB Field goal

    (2:31) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 16 — ARI 16
  9. OT · 3:46TB Field goal

    (3:46) 3-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 19 — ARI 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersCardinals
Offensive plays7773
Total yards397 (edge)325
Yards per play5.2 (edge)4.5
Expected points added / play-0.10 (edge)-0.24
Success rate40% (edge)30%
Dropback rate62%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.04 (edge)-0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20-0.13 (edge)
Third downs6/17 (edge)5/19
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)16
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

32/48, 281 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.9 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Trace McSorleyQB

24/45, 217 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-15.0 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

15 att, 79 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

20 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-7.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

10/11 for 98 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

9/10 for 90 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 256251:37Field goal +3
2ARIARI 2513455:45Fumble
3TBTB 434132:01Turnover on downs
4ARIARI 494121:38Punt
5TBTB 105142:12Punt
6ARIARI 395231:15Field goal +3
7TBTB 2516737:18Field goal +3
8ARIARI 145-11:00Punt
9TBTB 484192:05Interception
10ARIARI 416122:07Punt
11TBTB 96211:55Punt
12ARIARI 309350:59Field goal +3
13TBTB 17200:08End of half
14ARIARI 25581:55Punt
15TBTB 9481:29Punt
16ARIARI 184161:58Punt
17TBTB 3010396:30Interception
18ARIARI 199604:01Field goal +3
19TBTB 17581:41Punt
20ARITB 336331:39Touchdown +7
21TBTB 339672:44Touchdown +7
22ARIARI 257333:14Fumble
23TBTB 459312:22Field goal +3
24ARIARI 25590:51Punt
25TBTB 34480:53Punt
26ARIARI 205290:43Interception
27ARIARI 258112:17Punt
28TBTB 129714:02Field goal +3

9 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 73 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady32/48281120-1.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette20723.60-7.4
Rachaad White7365.10-0.1
Ke'Shawn Vaughn166.000.2
Tom Brady210.501.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Leonard Fournette91090021%3.6
Russell Gage5665013%3.9
Chris Godwin81063021%3.5
Mike Evans3829017%-9.9
Rachaad White441718%2.2
Cade Otton2712015%-3.1
Julio Jones12504%-1.4
Scott Miller01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David730.001
Devin White440.000
Logan Ryan530.000
Antoine Winfield230.000
Sean Murphy-Bunting310.002
Anthony Nelson311.000
Mike Edwards310.000
Carlton Davis210.001
Akiem Hicks200.000
Giovani Bernard200.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trace McSorley24/45217011-15.0
Andy Lee1/140002.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner15795.312.1
Greg Dortch3258.301.3
Trace McSorley7142.00-7.9
Keaontay Ingram122.00-0.4
Marquise Brown111.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Greg Dortch101198026%2.7
Marquise Brown3657014%2.0
James Conner7841019%-2.4
Trey McBride3417010%-0.4
Kamu Grugier-Hill11402%2.9
DeAndre Hopkins1104024%-6.4
Stephen Anderson02005%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah Simmons560.001
Jalen Thompson910.001
Budda Baker330.001
Ben Niemann240.000
Jonathan Ledbetter310.000
J.J. Watt310.000
Zaven Collins210.001
Myjai Sanders120.001
Chris Banjo120.000
Trey McBride200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -7.5
Closing total
41.5
TB moneyline
-320
ARI moneyline
+273

Buccaneers closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 35 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
open · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
TB 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Kliff Kingsbury