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2022 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 25, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay19
BY 3final margin
CardinalsArizona16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 at Arizona Cardinals 16. Final.
Buccaneers -7.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Cardinals 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:53, 3rd and 1 — 27.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:53 · 3rd and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Buccaneers
(4:53) 19-T.McSorley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 48, RECOVERED by TB-92-W.Gholston at TB 45.
27.6
Buccaneers closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:53, Buccaneers +27.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marquise BrownCardinalsOT 9:19(9:19) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short right to 2-M.Brown to ARI 34 for 10 yards (45-D.White). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short right to 2-M.Brown to ARI 35 for 11 yards (45-D.White).
19.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsOT 7:50(7:50) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to TB 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
19.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.04 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Buccaneers196 of 209 plays carry both curves
(4:53) 19-T.McSorley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 48, RECOVERED by TB-92-W.Gholston at TB 45.
Swing −27.6 for CardinalsExpected points −5.11 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 7 points higher than the market did.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:53TB +28% win prob(4:53) 19-T.McSorley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 48, RECOVERED by TB-92-W.Gholston at TB 45.
Overtime · 9:19ARI +20% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short right to 2-M.Brown to ARI 34 for 10 yards (45-D.White). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass short right to 2-M.Brown to ARI 35 for 11 yards (45-D.White).
Overtime · 7:50ARI +19% win prob(7:50) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to TB 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
4th · 0:04ARI +19% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 19-T.McSorley pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Neal at TB 5. 22-K.Neal to TB 5 for no gain (85-T.McBride).
Overtime · 6:10ARI +17% win prob(6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at ARI 32 for 16 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Overtime · 7:05ARI +16% win prob(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 17-R.Gage to TB 47 for 23 yards (34-J.Thompson). ARI-34-J.Thompson was injured during the play. TB-17-R.Gage was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 40-yard field goal with 3:46 left in overtime put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:27Ryan Succop·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–0
1st0:37Matt Prater·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–3
2nd8:18Ryan Succop·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+36–3
2nd0:12Matt Prater·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+36–6
4th14:11Matt Prater·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+36–9
4th8:07Rachaad White·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+713–16
4th2:31Ryan Succop·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+316–16
Overtime3:46Ryan Succop·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.TrinerLead never changed again+319–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCardinals
Buccaneers8–1Cardinals
397Total yards325
5.2Yards per play4.5
40%Success rate30%
35%Third-down rate26%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
20First downs16
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers3
The read
Buccaneers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.24Cardinals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Buccaneers: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.29Cardinals: −0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.13Cardinals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 77 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 73 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.3% in week 15 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
TB's play-action rate turned over: 26.1% in week 15 against 6.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Cardinals8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 16.7%, 16.9 points below their season mean of 33.5% and 1.5 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
T.McSorley FUMBLES−22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:53) 19-T.McSorley FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 48, RECOVERED by TB-92-W.Gholston at TB 45.
Q4 4:53 · Cardinals · 3rd & 1 at TB 42 · gained nothing · -5.11 EP · −21.8% win probability
194 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 209 snaps, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 67 yards from the TB 33 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
32%
Yards
721
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0175%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.2366%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0256%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2311%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Buccaneers3Cardinals0
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Cardinals 20
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Buccaneers 13
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 43 to the Cardinals 48
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Buccaneers 49
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 24
Buccaneers3Cardinals3
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Buccaneers 38
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Buccaneers6Cardinals3
Field goal16 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Cardinals 10
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Cardinals 33
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 41 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 30
Buccaneers6Cardinals6
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Buccaneers 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 33
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Buccaneers 17
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 25
Intercepted11 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Cardinals 34
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Buccaneers 20
4th quarter61 plays
Buccaneers6Cardinals9
Field goal3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 25
Buccaneers6Cardinals15
Buccaneers6Cardinals16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 22
Buccaneers12Cardinals16
Buccaneers13Cardinals16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Cardinals 3
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Buccaneers 42
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Buccaneers16Cardinals16
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Cardinals 24
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 29
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 42
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 49
Overtime20 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 36
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers19Cardinals16
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Cardinals 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
