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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 16
It turned at Q3 10:44, 3rd and 4, on George Kittle — 14.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:44, 49ers +14.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:44 · 3rd and 4
George Kittle
49ers
(10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.49 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 8 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.13 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against 49ers at 4 of 11 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Kittle's 34-yard touchdown catch with 10:44 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
George Kittle34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+77–14
Curtis Samuel20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson Wentz · two-point no good+620–3010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by category49ers
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 70 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against 49ers’s 51 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, 49ers 8.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's pass rate over expected, −17.5 pts, is past their previous low of −14.4 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-17.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.9 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 69 snaps
49ers-1.3 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Commanders44.4%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 54 early downs
49ers44.7%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 51%
Tendencies room →Commanders5.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.2 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
49ers15.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.3%.
49ers50.0%leaned — went for it · +25.2 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Commanders26.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers27.8%leaned — sent pressure · +9.6 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Commanders15.4%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers18.9%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
SF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 27.8%, 9.6 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.6 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
15/22, 234 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.7 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
13/18, 166 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.4 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 14.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 30.0 | +14.7 | 90% | 100% | 38% | 39% | 6/8, 120 yd, 2 TD |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +6.6 | 86% | 97% | 26% | 36% | 6/9, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.7 | +8.5 | 93% | 95% | 15% | 34% | 4/5, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +9.8 | 66% | 84% | 15% | 9% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | +4.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/22, 234 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | −3.1 | 75% | 85% | 10% | 1% | 15 car, 46 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.1 | +2.5 | 96% | 96% | 33% | 41% | 5/7, 81 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.1 | +11.1 | 37% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 71 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 10.2 | +2.0 | 74% | — | 0% | — | 13/18, 166 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -4 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −0.8 | 71% | 89% | 24% | 17% | 6/8, 35 yd |
| Carson WentzQB | 8.9 | +4.7 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 12/16, 123 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB | 6.1 | +1.4 | 27% | 46% | 9% | 0% | 3 car, 13 yd · 2/3, 28 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.8 | −10.1 | 44% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 22 car, 58 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 5.1 | −4.9 | 29% | 35% | 9% | 3% | 5 car, 10 yd · 2/3, 21 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −0.7 | 88% | 88% | 14% | 23% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Tyrion Davis-PriceRB | 3.0 | −1.8 | 25% | 15% | 0% | — | 9 car, 30 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Danny GrayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.McCloud right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:37 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at SF 29 · gained 71 · +6.35 EP · +16.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 99 yards from the SF 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Commanders0
49ers6Commanders049ers7Commanders649ers7Commanders749ers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Commanders749ers13Commanders749ers14Commanders749ers20Commanders749ers21Commanders1349ers21Commanders1449ers21Commanders1449ers24Commanders1449ers27Commanders1449ers30Commanders2049ers30Commanders2049ers36Commanders2049ers37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 13/18 | 166 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2.4 |
| Carson Wentz | 12/16 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 22 | 58 | 2.6 | 0 | −5.9 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 5 | 77 | 1 | 15% | +7.2 |
| Jahan Dotson | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Mayo | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Allen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/22 | 234 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_16_WAS_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 57 — over by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | −4.8 |
| +5.9 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 15% | +5.3 |
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 24% | −2.2 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | +1.0 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.4 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| John Ridgeway | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby McCain | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 71 | 71.0 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 | −4.5 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 120 | 2 | 38% | +13.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 7 | 81 | 0 | 33% | +3.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 14% | −2.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Willis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Spence | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
