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2022 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 24, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Washington Commanders

20

San Francisco 49ersWinner

37

SF -6.5 ✓O 37.5 ✓

San Francisco 49ers 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:44, SF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑WAS ↓
Q3 · 10:44WAS 7 — SF 13SF ball · 3rd & 4SF 70%

(10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:44SF +14% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:27SF +12% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 6:37SF +11% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.McCloud right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 8:47WAS +9% win prob(8:47) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at WAS 15 for no gain (51-D.Mayo).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 6:37SF Touchdown

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.McCloud right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — SF 7
  2. Q2 · 0:27WAS Touchdown

    (:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — SF 7
  3. Q3 · 10:44SF Touchdown

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — SF 14
  4. Q3 · 5:02SF Touchdown

    (5:02) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 27 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — SF 21
  5. Q3 · 2:53WAS Touchdown

    (2:53) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-29-T.Hufanga, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — SF 21
  6. Q4 · 15:00SF Field goal

    (15:00) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — SF 24
  7. Q4 · 12:05SF Field goal

    (12:05) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — SF 27
  8. Q4 · 9:20SF Field goal

    (9:20) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — SF 30
  9. Q4 · 5:30WAS Touchdown

    (5:30) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 10-C.Samuel for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 5 YAC

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — SF 30
  10. Q4 · 2:16SF Touchdown

    (2:16) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 20 — SF 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommanders49ers
Offensive plays7051
Total yards349371 (edge)
Yards per play5.07.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.130.12 (edge)
Success rate39% (edge)35%
Dropback rate53%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.180.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.490.01 (edge)
Third downs7/13 (edge)4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)14
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers21 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

15/22, 234 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.7 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

13/18, 166 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

22 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

15 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

6/8 for 120 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 13.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

5/7 for 81 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 17541:36Punt
2SFSF 359504:43Turnover on downs
3WASWAS 15441:50Punt
4SF504-21:31Punt
5WASWAS 15177910:48Turnover on downs
6SFSF 18993:06Touchdown +7
7WASWAS 407103:23Punt
8SFSF 14100:06Interception
9WASSF 319352:35Touchdown +7
10SFSF 25220:22End of half
11SFSF 249764:22Touchdown +7
12WASWAS 11541:39Punt
13SFSF 43431:17Punt
14WASWAS 25491:59Turnover on downs
15SFWAS 343340:51Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 256752:06Touchdown +7
17SFSF 406572:50Field goal +3
18WASWAS 193-80:52Fumble
19SFWAS 114112:02Field goal +3
20WASWAS 19330:43Defensive touchdown
21SFWAS 25482:03Field goal +3
22WASWAS 1813823:51Touchdown +6
23SFWAS 3310333:12Touchdown +7
24WASWAS 188522:13End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 99 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Taylor Heinicke13/181662122.4
Carson Wentz12/161231004.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson22582.60-5.9
Jonathan Williams3134.30-0.0
Antonio Gibson5102.00-5.0
Curtis Samuel122.00-0.5
Taylor Heinicke2-4-2.00-4.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin4577115%7.2
Jahan Dotson6976126%5.9
Curtis Samuel5552115%5.3
Logan Thomas6835024%-2.2
Jonathan Williams232809%1.6
Antonio Gibson232109%1.0
Brian Robinson01003%-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
David Mayo450.000
Jeremy Reaves330.001
Jonathan Allen240.000
Jamin Davis320.000
Benjamin St-Juste311.000
Darrick Forrest210.011
Daron Payne201.000
Chase Young110.001
John Ridgeway110.001
Bobby McCain110.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy15/222342136.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ray-Ray McCloud17171.016.3
Christian McCaffrey15463.11-4.5
Tyrion Davis-Price9303.30-1.6
Brock Purdy166.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle68120238%13.3
Brandon Aiyuk5781033%3.7
Jauan Jennings2321014%-2.5
Christian McCaffrey2212010%-0.3
Ray-Ray McCloud01005%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner740.000
Deommodore Lenoir630.001
Nick Bosa522.000
Talanoa Hufanga430.001
Dre Greenlaw240.000
Tashaun Gipson220.001
Jimmie Ward310.011
Jordan Willis120.000
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles120.000
Akeem Spence120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -6.5
Closing total
37.5
WAS moneyline
+241
SF moneyline
-279

49ers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 57 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
WAS 6 days · SF 9 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Kyle Shanahan