For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Commanders158 of 170 plays carry both curves
(10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.1 for 49ersExpected points +3.99 for 49ersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:44SF +14% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:27SF +12% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:37SF +11% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.McCloud right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:47WAS +9% win prob(8:47) 23-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at WAS 15 for no gain (51-D.Mayo).
2nd · 3:03WAS +9% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Forrest at SF 31. 22-D.Forrest to SF 31 for no gain (15-J.Jennings). 0 YAC
2nd · 9:37WAS +9% win prob(9:37) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right guard to SF 1 for no gain (54-F.Warner).
1st · 11:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
George Kittle's 34-yard touchdown catch with 10:44 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Commanders: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Commanders: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.2249ers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.49Commanders: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.0149ers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 70 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against 49ers’s 51 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, 49ers 8.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, −17.5 pts, is past their previous low of −14.4 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers18.9%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 27.8%, 9.6 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.6 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
72Charles LenoT · Every snap100%73 snaps
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time93%68 snaps
53Trai TurnerG · Full-time86%63 snaps
1Jahan DotsonWR · Full-time86%63 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation66%48 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Heavy rotation60%44 snaps
76Samuel CosmiT · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Rotational44%32 snaps
87John BatesTE · Rotational37%27 snaps
85Cole TurnerTE · Rotational29%21 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational29%21 snaps
41Jonathan WilliamsRB · Rotational27%20 snaps
11Carson WentzQB · Rotational26%19 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Situational10%7 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Situational7%5 snaps
15Dax MilneWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Daniel WiseDEChris PaulGSam HowellQBKamren CurlSSSaahdiq CharlesT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Nick MartinC
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%52 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%52 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%52 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%52 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time96%50 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time90%47 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Full-time88%46 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation75%39 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.McCloud right+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.McCloud right end for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:37 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at SF 29 · gained 71 · +6.35 EP · +16.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 99 yards from the SF 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
35%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1068%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1725%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3047%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.2247%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3550%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.1360%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Commanders 15
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Commanders 44
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 44
2nd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the 49ers 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Commanders049ers6
Commanders049ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 1 to the 49ers 29
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the 49ers 49
Intercepted1 play
Commanders649ers7
Commanders749ers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Commanders749ers13
Commanders749ers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Commanders 34
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 15
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the 49ers 46
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Commanders749ers20
Commanders749ers21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 33
Commanders1349ers21
Commanders1449ers21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the 49ers 3
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Commanders 5
4th quarter53 plays
Commanders1449ers24
Field goal1 play
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 21
Commanders1449ers27
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 22
Commanders1449ers30
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 17
Commanders2049ers30
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the 49ers 20
Commanders2049ers36
Commanders2049ers37
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the 49ers 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
