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2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

19

Atlanta FalconsWinner

20

ATL -7 no coverU 41 ✓Dome

Atlanta Falcons 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, ATL +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑ARI ↓
Q4 · 0:02ARI 19 — ATL 20ATL ball · 2nd & 3ATL 79%

(:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:02ATL +21% win prob(:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  2. Q4 · 5:02ATL +17% win prob(5:02) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
  3. Q3 · 4:06ARI +14% win prob(4:06) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
  4. Q2 · 10:46ARI +12% win prob(10:46) 4-D.Ridder FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 11, touched at ATL 10, RECOVERED by ARI-95-L.Fotu at ATL 8.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:28ARI Field goal

    (8:28) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — ATL 0
  2. Q2 · 13:41ATL Touchdown

    (13:41) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — ATL 7
  3. Q2 · 10:06ARI Touchdown

    (10:06) (No Huddle) 17-D.Blough pass short right to 85-T.McBride for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 10 — ATL 7
  4. Q2 · 1:51ATL Touchdown

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 10 — ATL 14
  5. Q2 · 0:06ARI Field goal

    (:06) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: ARI 13 — ATL 14
  6. Q3 · 9:04ARI Field goal

    (9:04) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: ARI 16 — ATL 14
  7. Q4 · 9:40ATL Field goal

    (9:40) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ARI 16 — ATL 17
  8. Q4 · 5:02ARI Field goal

    (5:02) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-H.Bradley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

    Score after this play: ARI 19 — ATL 17
  9. Q4 · 0:02ATL Field goal

    (:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ARI 19 — ATL 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsFalcons
Offensive plays6960
Total yards339 (edge)299
Yards per play4.95.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.02 (edge)-0.08
Success rate45% (edge)42%
Dropback rate64%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.03 (edge)0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.16
Third downs4/115/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)19
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

David BloughQB

24/40, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.8 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

19/26, 169 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.2 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

20 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

16 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

7/10 for 78 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

6/9 for 61 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 2515656:36Field goal +3
2ATLATL 2518759:46Touchdown +7
3ARIARI 259302:52Punt
4ATLATL 11100:10Fumble
5ARIATL 8380:36Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 2513767:06Turnover on downs
7ARIARI 10441:03Punt
8ATLARI 5250:04Touchdown +7
9ARIARI 2011621:45Field goal +3
10ATL—100:02End of half
11ATLATL 256122:13Punt
12ARIARI 111413:47Field goal +3
13ATLATL 257162:08Punt
14ARIARI 388372:50Missed field goal
15ATLATL 33462:07Punt
16ARIARI 158413:28Turnover on downs
17ATLATL 459413:51Field goal +3
18ARIARI 2512514:39Field goal +3
19ATLATL 2513684:57Field goal +3

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
David Blough24/402221021.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner16794.902.1
Corey Clement7324.60-1.6
Pharoh Cooper284.00-0.3
David Blough273.50-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trey McBride71078126%5.3
Marquise Brown6961024%4.3
James Conner333108%2.4
A.J. Green221705%1.2
Greg Dortch41015026%-6.2
Robbie Chosen111303%1.3
Andre Baccellia12705%-0.7
Corey Clement01003%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Thompson720.000
Jace Whittaker510.001
Isaiah Simmons410.000
Zaven Collins410.001
Cameron Thomas140.000
Michael Dogbe310.000
Ezekiel Turner310.000
Dennis Gardeck210.000
Jonathan Ledbetter110.000
Leki Fotu110.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Desmond Ridder19/26169001-0.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier20834.212.0
Cordarrelle Patterson9424.71-0.1
Desmond Ridder492.30-7.7
Avery Williams1-2-2.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
MyCole Pruitt4449016%2.3
Drake London5847032%-2.2
Cordarrelle Patterson6842032%0.2
Tyler Allgeier111204%1.5
Damiere Byrd121208%0.8
KhaDarel Hodge11504%0.3
Avery Williams11204%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Richie Grant450.000
Isaiah Oliver441.002
Cornell Armstrong410.001
A.J. Terrell410.000
Troy Andersen140.000
Lorenzo Carter130.000
Dee Alford300.001
Grady Jarrett120.000
DeAngelo Malone120.000
Rashaan Evans200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -7
Closing total
41
ARI moneyline
+241
ATL moneyline
-279

Falcons closed -7, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 39 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
ARI 7 days · ATL 8 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Arthur Smith