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live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 3 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q4 2:32, 1st and 10, on Sam Darnold — 17.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 2:32, Buccaneers +17.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:32 · 1st and 10
Sam Darnold
Buccaneers
(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 3 for -10 yards (98-A.Nelson). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson) [98-A.Nelson], RECOVERED by TB-50-V.Vea at CAR 6.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 3 for -10 yards (98-A.Nelson). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson) [98-A.Nelson], RECOVERED by TB-50-V.Vea at CAR 6.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Evans's 30-yard touchdown catch with 6:53 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Mike Evans30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Brady · two-point goodLead never changed again+821–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 75 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Buccaneers 6.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 29.6% in week 16 against 65.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers3.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.9 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 59 snaps
Buccaneers8.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 100%
Tendencies room →Panthers65.2%inside their normal wobble · +15.6 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 46 early downs
Buccaneers62.5%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Panthers20.5%right on their number · −5.4 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Buccaneers12.2%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Panthers25.0%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers66.7%leaned — went for it · +24.6 vs their 42.0%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 56%
Tendencies room →Panthers24.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Buccaneers28.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers16.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers15.4%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
TB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 42.0% and 1.2 times their own 21.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
34/45, 432 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.4 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
23/37, 341 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
7.5 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mike Evans banked 28.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 48.7 | +28.8 | 83% | 88% | 29% | 63% | 10/12, 207 yd, 3 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 37.7 | +14.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 34/45, 432 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.7 | +7.7 | 98% | 93% | 32% | 39% | 6/10, 117 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 21.6 | +3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 341 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 20 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 21.0 | +5.5 | 85% | 90% | 21% | 14% | 9/9, 120 yd |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.0 | +10.0 | 47% | 54% | 13% | 16% | 4/4, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +5.9 | 58% | 61% | 10% | 9% | 3/3, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −1.9 | 50% | 50% | 12% | 1% | 11 car, 22 yd · 5/5, 26 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 9.5 | +3.7 | 53% | 61% | 10% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 3/3, 53 yd |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | −3.0 | 46% | 44% | 10% | 1% | 10 car, 28 yd · 4/4, 19 yd |
| Russell GageWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.9 | 54% | 58% | 7% | 4% | 3/3, 33 yd |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +2.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.6 | 27% | 24% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 7 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −8.8 | 87% | 90% | 14% | 8% | 2/6, 17 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 3.5 | −2.3 | 38% | 24% | 0% | — | 13 car, 35 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −3.2 | 88% | 80% | 10% | 14% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.4 | 28% | 28% | 5% | 5% | 1 car, 13 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 55% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | 0.9 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andre RobertsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Stephen SullivanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.0 | 18% | 22% | 6% | 12% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 29% | 20% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:53 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at CAR 30 · gained 30 · +3.17 EP · +24.2% win probability
180 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 193 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers6
Buccaneers0Panthers7Buccaneers0Panthers13Buccaneers0Panthers14Buccaneers0How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers14Buccaneers6Panthers14Buccaneers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Panthers14Buccaneers10Panthers20Buccaneers10Panthers21Buccaneers10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Panthers21Buccaneers16How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers21Buccaneers22Panthers21Buccaneers24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Panthers21Buccaneers30Panthers24Buccaneers30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/37 | 341 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 32% | +8.7 |
| Shi Smith | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 13% | +4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/45 | 432 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +17.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_CAR_TB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 54 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 10% | +3.7 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3% | +2.8 |
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −0.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −4.3 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Anderson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 28 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −3.0 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 | +3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 10 | 12 | 207 | 3 | 29% | +16.2 |
| Chris Godwin | 9 | 9 | 120 | 0 | 21% | +5.1 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 7% | +5.5 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 12% | +1.0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 10% | −0.3 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 14% | −5.2 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
