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2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
24
30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 2:32, CAR +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 3 for -10 yards (98-A.Nelson). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson) [98-A.Nelson], RECOVERED by TB-50-V.Vea at CAR 6.
How the points landed
(11:44) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 82-T.Tremble for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 0(7:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 0(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 7(1:13) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 10(14:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 12-S.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 10(13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 16(6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 24(2:00) 67-L.Goedeke reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 30(1:04) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 24 — TB 30Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Panthers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 75 |
| Total yards | 400 | 480 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.8 (edge) | 6.4 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Success rate | 46% | 48% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 66% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.24 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.51 | -0.13 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/11 (edge) | 5/15 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 | 26 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 (edge) |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
34/45, 432 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.4 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
23/37, 341 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
7.5 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | CAR 25 | 8 | 69 | 3:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | TB | TB 25 | 6 | 46 | 2:33 | Fumble | |
| 3 | CAR | CAR 33 | 4 | 9 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 4 | TB | TB 17 | 5 | 18 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 5 | CAR | CAR 24 | 4 | 0 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 6 | TB | TB 19 | 14 | 46 | 6:21 | Missed field goal | |
| 7 | CAR | CAR 43 | 9 | 57 | 4:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 2 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 33 | 4 | 9 | 2:32 | Punt | |
| 10 | TB | TB 20 | 5 | 80 | 0:52 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 25 | 3 | 2 | 0:13 | Fumble | |
| 12 | TB | CAR 13 | 4 | 9 | 0:48 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 38 | 5 | -8 | 1:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 12 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 16 | 5 | 43 | 2:05 | Interception | |
| 16 | TB | TB 2 | 15 | 90 | 7:12 | Missed field goal | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 9 | 8 | 96 | 3:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 61 | 1:01 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 25 | 8 | 17 | 3:56 | Punt | |
| 20 | TB | TB 8 | 9 | 94 | 3:06 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 21 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 22 | TB | TB 29 | 7 | 11 | 3:13 | Punt | |
| 23 | CAR | CAR 13 | 1 | -7 | 0:08 | Fumble | |
| 24 | TB | CAR 6 | 3 | 6 | 0:26 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 25 | CAR | CAR 25 | 9 | 44 | 0:59 | Field goal +3 | |
| 26 | TB | CAR 44 | 5 | 5 | 0:33 | Punt | |
| 27 | CAR | CAR 8 | 3 | 63 | 0:26 | End of game |
9 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/37 | 341 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | -6.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 10 | 117 | 1 | 32% | 8.7 |
| Shi Smith | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 13% | 4.2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/45 | 432 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 54 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.2 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 10% | 3.7 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3% | 2.8 |
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | 0.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | -0.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -4.3 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Taylor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Anderson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -3.0 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 | -4.5 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 | 3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 10 | 12 | 207 | 3 | 29% | 16.2 |
| Chris Godwin | 9 | 9 | 120 | 0 | 21% | 5.1 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 7% | 5.5 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 10% | -0.3 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 14% | -5.2 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | -1.2 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
