2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -3.5 ✓O 40.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 2:32, CAR +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:32CAR 21 — TB 24CAR ball · 1st & 10TB 75%

(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 3 for -10 yards (98-A.Nelson). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson) [98-A.Nelson], RECOVERED by TB-50-V.Vea at CAR 6.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:32CAR +18% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 3 for -10 yards (98-A.Nelson). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson) [98-A.Nelson], RECOVERED by TB-50-V.Vea at CAR 6.
Q4 · 2:48CAR +17% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 40 for -7 yards (49-F.Luvu). PENALTY on TB-12-T.Brady, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TB 40.
Q2 · 2:04CAR +16% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 22, touched at CAR 20, RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at CAR 17. 45-D.White to CAR 13 for 4 yards (79-I.Ekwonu; 72-T.Moton).
Q4 · 6:53TB +14% win prob(6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:44CAR Touchdown
(11:44) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 82-T.Tremble for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 0
Q2 · 7:57CAR Touchdown
(7:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 0
Q2 · 2:18TB Touchdown
(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 7
Q2 · 1:13TB Field goal
(1:13) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 10
Q4 · 14:56CAR Touchdown
(14:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 12-S.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 10
Q4 · 13:58TB Touchdown
(13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 16
Q4 · 6:53TB Touchdown
(6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 24
Q4 · 2:00TB Touchdown
(2:00) 67-L.Goedeke reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 21 — TB 30
Q4 · 1:04CAR Field goal
(1:04) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 24 — TB 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	59	75
Total yards	400	480 (edge)
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	46%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.51	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	19	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

34/45, 432 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

23/37, 341 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

7.5 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

D'Onta ForemanRB

13 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

10 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

10/12 for 207 yds, 3 TD

29% of team targets · 16.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

9/9 for 120 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	8	69	3:21	Touchdown +7
2	TB	TB 25	6	46	2:33	Fumble
3	CAR	CAR 33	4	9	2:01	Punt
4	TB	TB 17	5	18	2:42	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 24	4	0	1:02	Punt
6	TB	TB 19	14	46	6:21	Missed field goal
7	CAR	CAR 43	9	57	4:09	Touchdown +7
8	TB	TB 25	5	2	2:17	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 33	4	9	2:32	Punt
10	TB	TB 20	5	80	0:52	Touchdown +7
11	CAR	CAR 25	3	2	0:13	Fumble
12	TB	CAR 13	4	9	0:48	Field goal +3
13	CAR	CAR 38	5	-8	1:09	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 25	7	12	2:06	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 16	5	43	2:05	Interception
16	TB	TB 2	15	90	7:12	Missed field goal
17	CAR	CAR 9	8	96	3:47	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 25	5	61	1:01	Touchdown +6
19	CAR	CAR 25	8	17	3:56	Punt
20	TB	TB 8	9	94	3:06	Touchdown +8
21	CAR	CAR 25	5	6	1:02	Punt
22	TB	TB 29	7	11	3:13	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 13	1	-7	0:08	Fumble
24	TB	CAR 6	3	6	0:26	Touchdown +6
25	CAR	CAR 25	9	44	0:59	Field goal +3
26	TB	CAR 44	5	5	0:33	Punt
27	CAR	CAR 8	3	63	0:26	End of game

9 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	23/37	341	3	1	2	7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	13	35	2.7	-2.5
Sam Darnold	5	20	4.0	-6.0
Chuba Hubbard	3	12	4.0	-0.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	7	7.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	6	10	117	1	32%	8.7
Shi Smith	4	4	70	1	13%	4.2
Chuba Hubbard	3	3	53	0	10%	1.2
Tommy Tremble	3	3	33	1	10%	3.7
Giovanni Ricci	1	1	32	0	3%	2.8
Terrace Marshall	2	3	15	0	10%	0.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	3	13	0	10%	-0.1
Ian Thomas	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Stephen Sullivan	0	2	0	0	6%	-4.3
Raheem Blackshear	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	8	4	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	7	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	7	3	1.0	0
Xavier Woods	3	4	0.0	0
Marquis Haynes	3	1	1.0	0
C.J. Henderson	4	0	0.0	1
Yetur Gross-Matos	1	3	1.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	1	0.0	0
Keith Taylor	1	2	0.0	0
Henry Anderson	2	1	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	34/45	432	3	0	3	17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	10	28	2.8	0	-3.0
Rachaad White	11	22	2.0	0	-4.5
Julio Jones	1	13	13.0	0	1.0
Tom Brady	3	4	1.3	1	3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	10	12	207	3	29%	16.2
Chris Godwin	9	9	120	0	21%	5.1
Russell Gage	3	3	33	0	7%	5.5
Rachaad White	5	5	26	0	12%	1.0
Leonard Fournette	4	4	19	0	10%	-0.3
Cade Otton	2	6	17	0	14%	-5.2
Julio Jones	1	2	10	0	5%	-1.2
Ko Kieft	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	6	2	0.0	0	0
Devin White	4	3	0.0	0	0
Joe Tryon	7	0	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	5	1	1.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	5	1	0.0	0	0
William Gholston	2	2	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	1	0.0	1	2
Anthony Nelson	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	1	1	0.0	0	0
Zyon McCollum	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 40.5
CAR moneyline: +164
TB moneyline: -184

Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 54 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: CAR 8 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Steve Wilks vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.