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2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · Ford Field

Chicago Bears

10

Detroit LionsWinner

41

DET -4.5 ✓U 52.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:38, DET +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑CHI ↓
Q1 · 7:38CHI 7 — DET 0DET ball · 4th & 4CHI 51%

(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Chark [91-D.Robinson]. PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at CHI 35 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:38DET +15% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Chark [91-D.Robinson]. PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at CHI 35 - No Play.
  2. Q1 · 5:21DET +13% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to DET 9 for 60 yards (31-K.Joseph).
  3. Q1 · 12:26DET +10% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-C.Kmet. 1-J.Fields left end to DET 21 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).
  4. Q2 · 14:32DET +7% win prob(14:32) 32-D.Swift left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:00CHI Touchdown

    (11:00) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — DET 0
  2. Q1 · 6:48DET Touchdown

    (6:48) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Watts]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — DET 7
  3. Q1 · 2:28CHI Field goal

    (2:28) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 14:32DET Touchdown

    (14:32) 32-D.Swift left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 14
  5. Q2 · 4:23DET Touchdown

    (4:23) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 21
  6. Q2 · 0:20DET Field goal

    (:20) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 24
  7. Q3 · 11:42DET Touchdown

    (11:42) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 30-Ja.Williams left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 31
  8. Q3 · 6:44DET Touchdown

    (6:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 32-D.Swift for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 38
  9. Q4 · 2:45DET Field goal

    (2:45) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — DET 41

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsLions
Offensive plays5067
Total yards230507 (edge)
Yards per play4.67.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.340.19 (edge)
Success rate36%52% (edge)
Dropback rate64%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.650.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)0.21
Third downs3/134/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)49 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps725 (edge)
Sacks taken72 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

21/29, 255 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

7/21, 75 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-27.0 expected points added · -28.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

22 att, 144 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

10 att, 132 yds, 0 TD

9.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · DET

D.J. CharkWR

2/4 for 56 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 2511704:06Touchdown +7
2DETDET 2511514:09Touchdown +7
3CHICHI 258704:19Field goal +3
4DETDET 258753:02Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 257212:06Punt
6DETDET 13471:04Punt
7CHICHI 304-41:54Punt
8DETDET 3710635:04Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 254231:26Fumble
10DET508462:33Field goal +3
11CHIDET 45200:17Interception
12DETDET 258753:22Touchdown +7
13CHICHI 25541:06Punt
14DETDET 88923:56Touchdown +7
15CHICHI 25551:35Punt
16DETDET 19481:33Punt
17CHICHI 27452:01Punt
18DETDET 3110304:40Punt
19CHICHI 5441:34Punt
20DETCHI 47482:13Turnover on downs
21CHICHI 408262:49Turnover on downs
22DETDET 305522:31Field goal +3
23CHICHI 25561:04Punt
24DETDET 39301:36End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 92 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields7/2175117-27.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields1013213.209.2
Khalil Herbert5316.200.5
David Montgomery6244.00-0.3
Velus Jones11313.000.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cole Kmet2327117%1.6
Equanimeous St. Brown2320017%-0.1
N'Keal Harry111606%0.9
David Montgomery2312017%-0.9
Velus Jones01006%-0.8
Byron Pringle040022%-3.5
Dante Pettis01006%-1.4
Chase Claypool01006%-0.5
Ryan Griffin01006%-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Joe Thomas550.000
Kyler Gordon610.000
Jaquan Brisker520.000
DeAndre Houston-Carson320.000
Matthew Adams140.000
Justin Jones231.000
Josh Blackwell320.000
Nicholas Morrow220.000
Harrison Hand030.001
Jaylon Jones300.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff21/292553015.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams221446.511.4
D'Andre Swift11787.112.8
Jameson Williams14040.002.4
Kalif Raymond144.000.6
Jared Goff122.000.5
Nate Sudfeld3-3-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown4562017%4.5
D.J. Chark2456014%1.4
Kalif Raymond3340010%2.4
D'Andre Swift4439114%2.6
James Mitchell111503%1.1
Jamaal Williams111303%0.8
Brock Wright3413214%-1.1
Shane Zylstra12707%-2.5
Josh Reynolds11503%-0.1
Jason Cabinda11503%0.4
Jameson Williams030010%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone330.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu220.502
Kerby Joseph400.001
Josh Paschal402.000
Jerry Jacobs120.000
Aidan Hutchinson120.511
Malcolm Rodriguez300.000
James Houston303.000
Alim McNeill110.000
John Cominsky201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -4.5
Closing total
52.5
CHI moneyline
+194
DET moneyline
-219

Lions closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 51 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
CHI 8 days · DET 8 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.