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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 41, Bears 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:38, 4th and 4, on Jared Goff — 14.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:38 · 4th and 4
Jared Goff
Lions
(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Chark [91-D.Robinson]. PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at CHI 35 - No Play.
Dome
Lions closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Detroit Lions 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:38, Lions +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin FieldsBearsQ1 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-C.Kmet. 1-J.Fields left end to DET 21 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).
9.7pts
Justin FieldsBearsQ1 5:21(5:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to DET 9 for 60 yards (31-K.Joseph).
13.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.65 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 4 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears157 of 166 plays carry both curves
(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Chark [91-D.Robinson]. PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at CHI 35 - No Play.
Swing +14.5 for LionsExpected points +4.74 for LionsThe model had Bears 11 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:38DET +15% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 4-D.Chark [91-D.Robinson]. PENALTY on CHI-6-K.Gordon, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at CHI 35 - No Play.
1st · 5:21DET +13% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to DET 9 for 60 yards (31-K.Joseph).
1st · 12:26DET +10% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-C.Kmet. 1-J.Fields left end to DET 21 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).
2nd · 14:32DET +7% win prob(14:32) 32-D.Swift left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:21DET +7% win prob(1:21) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 4-D.Chark to CHI 29 for 28 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson, 44-M.Adams).
1st · 14:13DET +7% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end to CHI 34 for 8 yards (93-J.Paschal). PENALTY on DET-39-J.Jacobs, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 34.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D'Andre Swift's 17-yard rushing touchdown with 14:32 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd6:44D'Andre Swift·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+710–38
4th2:45Michael Badgley·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+310–41
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryLions
Bears0–9Lions
230Total yards507
4.6Yards per play7.6
36%Success rate52%
23%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays9
7First downs25
7Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Bears: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.65Bears: −0.65 expected points added per play
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Bears: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.21Lions: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Lions’s 67 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Lions 7.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's play-action rate, 48.4%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 16.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 40.0% in week 10.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 16.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 31.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.0% in week 15.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 16.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.7% in week 16 against 40.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
DET's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 16 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions31.3%
leaned — got home · +16.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteDET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.4%, 20.7 points above their season mean of 27.7% and 2.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Sam MustipherC · Every snap100%52 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%52 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%52 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%52 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time88%46 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation75%39 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%32 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields scrambles+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle to DET 9 for 60 yards (31-K.Joseph).
Q1 5:21 · Bears · 3rd & 4 at CHI 31 · gained 60 · +4.88 EP · +18.3% win probability
155 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 92 yards from the DET 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1551%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.4069%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2545%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.2333%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.6150%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0557%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2817%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Bears6Lions0
Bears7Lions0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 13
Bears7Lions6
Bears7Lions7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Bears10Lions7
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 29
2nd quarter47 plays
Bears10Lions13
Bears10Lions14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Bears 17
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 46
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 20
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 34
Bears10Lions20
Bears10Lions21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Bears 9
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 48
Bears10Lions24
Field goal12 plays, from midfield to the Bears 4
Intercepted2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Bears10Lions30
Bears10Lions31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 29
Bears10Lions37
Bears10Lions38
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 8 to the Bears 21
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 39
4th quarter44 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Bears 44
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 9
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Bears 39
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Lions 29
Bears10Lions41
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 9
Punt7 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -4.5
Closing total
52.5
Bears moneyline
+194
Lions moneyline
-219
Lions closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 51 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bears 8 days · Lions 8 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Dan Campbell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 3:02
CHI +6% win prob
(3:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 48 for 0 yards (59-J.Houston). FUMBLES (59-J.Houston) [59-J.Houston], RECOVERED by DET-97-A.Hutchinson at 50.
1st · 3:06CHI +5% win prob(3:06) 71-R.Reiff reported in as eligible. 1-J.Fields sacked ob at DET 5 for -3 yards (sack split by 26-I.Melifonwu and 97-A.Hutchinson).
