2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · FedExField

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -1 upsetU 41.5 ✓Commanders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:12, WAS +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:12CLE 9 — WAS 7CLE ball · 3rd & 5WAS 61%

(10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:12WAS +18% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:55WAS +12% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at WAS 26 for 26 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Q2 · 0:23WAS +11% win prob(:23) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:56CLE +10% win prob(3:56) 41-J.Williams left end to CLE 41 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney, 95-M.Garrett).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:26CLE Field goal
(9:26) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 3 — WAS 0
Q2 · 0:23WAS Touchdown
(:23) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 3 — WAS 7
Q3 · 10:12CLE Touchdown
(10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 10 — WAS 7
Q3 · 0:43CLE Touchdown
(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 17 — WAS 7
Q4 · 10:29WAS Field goal
(10:29) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: CLE 17 — WAS 10
Q4 · 5:29CLE Touchdown
(5:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Sweat]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 24 — WAS 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Commanders
Offensive plays	50	68
Total yards	304 (edge)	260
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	40% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	50%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	4/10	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

9/18, 169 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

7.9 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Carson WentzQB

16/28, 143 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-8.1 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

14 att, 104 yds, 0 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

24 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

3/4 for 105 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

6/7 for 56 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	8	11	3:22	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 20	3	4	0:50	Interception
3	CLE	WAS 36	5	17	1:26	Field goal +3
4	WAS	WAS 22	10	37	5:31	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 42	6	52	3:33	Turnover on downs
6	WAS	WAS 2	5	5	2:04	Interception
7	CLE	CLE 47	4	2	1:26	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 4	22	96	11:27	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 23	2	0	0:21	End of half
10	WAS	WAS 27	5	-2	2:07	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 37	7	63	2:50	Touchdown +7
12	WAS	WAS 22	8	20	3:07	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 16	13	89	6:20	Touchdown +7
14	WAS	WAS 25	10	50	5:10	Field goal +3
15	CLE	CLE 25	11	70	5:05	Touchdown +7
16	WAS	WAS 25	9	35	2:10	Interception
17	CLE	CLE 20	4	-1	0:26	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 36	4	10	0:42	Turnover on downs
19	CLE	WAS 35	4	1	1:39	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 5	1	5	0:24	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 96 scrimmage yards over 22 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	9/18	169	3	0	5	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	14	104	7.4	3.0
Deshaun Watson	8	31	3.9	-2.1
Jerome Ford	5	9	1.8	-1.3
Jacoby Brissett	1	2	2.0	2.1
Kareem Hunt	2	0	0.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	3	4	105	2	25%	11.5
David Njoku	1	3	21	0	19%	0.8
Harrison Bryant	2	3	19	0	19%	0.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	3	13	1	19%	1.8
Nick Chubb	1	1	12	0	6%	1.6
Jack Conklin	0	1	0	0	6%	-1.5
Kareem Hunt	1	1	-1	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tony Fields	5	4	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	3	4	1.5	0	0
Grant Delpit	3	3	0.0	2	2
Jermaine Carter	1	5	0.0	0	0
Chase Winovich	4	1	1.0	0	0
John Johnson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Taven Bryan	1	3	0.5	0	0
Martin Emerson	4	0	0.0	0	2
Deion Jones	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	2	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	16/28	143	0	3	3	-8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	24	87	3.6	0	-3.5
Jonathan Williams	9	30	3.3	0	-5.3
Terry McLaurin	1	12	12.0	0	1.1
Carson Wentz	3	7	2.3	1	3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	6	7	56	25%	5.1
Jahan Dotson	3	7	37	25%	-2.2
Terry McLaurin	2	5	25	18%	-4.9
Cam Sims	1	1	16	4%	3.3
Curtis Samuel	1	2	6	7%	-0.8
Jonathan Williams	3	5	3	18%	-3.4
Brian Robinson	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jamin Davis	4	4	0.0
David Mayo	4	4	1.0
Daron Payne	2	2	2.0
Jeremy Reaves	2	2	0.0
Montez Sweat	3	1	1.0
Darrick Forrest	1	3	0.0
Casey Toohill	2	1	1.0
Kendall Fuller	2	1	0.0
John Ridgeway	1	1	0.0
Efe Obada	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1
Closing total: 41.5
CLE moneyline: +106
WAS moneyline: -117

Commanders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CLE 8 days · WAS 8 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Ron Rivera