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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q3 10:12, 3rd and 5, on Amari Cooper — 18.5 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:12, Browns +18.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:12 · 3rd and 5
Amari Cooper
Browns
(10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Amari Cooper's 46-yard touchdown catch with 10:12 left in the 3rd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Amari Cooper46-yd TD catch46-yard touchdown catchfrom Deshaun WatsonLead never changed again+710–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryCommanders
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 50 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 68 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Commanders 1.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 17 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.1 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
WAS's pass rate over expected, −20.5 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 15.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −23.4 pts in week 16 against −3.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-3.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 50 snaps
Commanders-20.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.9 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Browns44.7%right on their number · −5.4 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 38 early downs
Commanders37.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.6 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 51%
Tendencies room →Browns12.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Commanders3.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −17.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Browns66.7%right on their number · +9.3 vs their 57.4%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders100.0%off script — went for it · +64.7 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (+2.31× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 54%
Tendencies room →Browns21.9%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Commanders36.0%leaned — sent pressure · +15.0 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 44%
Tendencies room →Browns15.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Commanders28.0%inside their normal wobble · +9.2 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 64.7 points above their season mean of 35.3% and 2.3 times their own 28.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
9/18, 169 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
7.9 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
16/28, 143 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-8.1 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Amari Cooper banked 18.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.5 | +18.6 | 61% | 84% | 25% | 68% | 3/4, 105 yd, 2 TD |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 21.9 | +11.2 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 9/18, 169 yd, 3 TD · 8 car, 31 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +3.8 | 56% | 60% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 104 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.6 | +1.5 | 83% | 100% | 25% | 14% | 6/7, 56 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.7 | −7.8 | 52% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 24 car, 87 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | +3.2 | 86% | 92% | 19% | 15% | 1/3, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.7 | −3.5 | 77% | 91% | 25% | 48% | 3/7, 37 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 6.4 | −8.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/28, 143 yd, 3 INT · 3 car, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Jonathan WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −4.8 | 46% | 69% | 18% | 0% | 9 car, 30 yd · 3/5, 3 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −2.0 | 81% | 88% | 18% | 16% | 1 car, 12 yd · 2/5, 25 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Featured Receiver | 3.9 | −0.3 | 53% | 40% | 19% | 0% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 3.1 | −1.8 | 93% | 96% | 19% | 33% | 1/3, 21 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.1 | 17% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.4 | 64% | 84% | 7% | 17% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.9 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kareem HuntRB | 0.9 | −1.7 | 32% | 40% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 0 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mike WoodsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dax MilneWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:12 · Browns · 3rd & 5 at WAS 46 · gained 46 · +5.35 EP · +20.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 96 yards from the WAS 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Browns3
Commanders0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
Browns3Commanders6Browns3Commanders7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns9Commanders7Browns10Commanders7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Browns16Commanders7Browns17Commanders7Browns17Commanders10Browns23Commanders10Browns24Commanders10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 9/18 | 169 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +7.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Jerome Ford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 4 | 105 | 2 | 25% | +11.5 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fields | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 3 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/28 | 143 | 0 | 3 | 3 | −8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_CLE_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 9 |
| 1.8 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| +0.8 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 19% | +0.7 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 19% | +1.8 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +1.6 |
| Jack Conklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| Jermaine Carter | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Winovich | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taven Bryan | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Deion Jones | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 24 | 87 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Jonathan Williams | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 25% | +5.1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 25% | −2.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 18% | −4.9 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +3.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.8 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18% | −3.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamin Davis | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Mayo | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Ridgeway | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Efe Obada | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
