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Dallas Cowboys 27, Titans 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 9:02, 3rd and 19, on Dak Prescott — 6.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:02 · 3rd and 19
Dak Prescott
Cowboys
(9:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup. PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 51 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play.
Cowboys closed -14 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Dallas Cowboys 27–13. Biggest swing: Q3 9:02, Cowboys +6.0% win probability on one snap.
6.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ezekiel ElliottTitansQ1 13:20(13:20) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 49 for 3 yards (99-R.Weaver, 93-T.Tart).
4.6pts
Dalton SchultzCowboysQ1 9:24(9:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 42 for 13 yards (47-A.Adams).
4.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 47 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Cowboys174 of 182 plays carry both curves
(9:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup. PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 51 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play.
Swing −6.0 for TitansExpected points −5.35 for TitansThe model had Titans 25 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:02TEN +6% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup. PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 51 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play.
1st · 13:20DAL +5% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 49 for 3 yards (99-R.Weaver, 93-T.Tart).
1st · 9:24TEN +4% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 42 for 13 yards (47-A.Adams).
1st · 14:25TEN +4% win prob(14:25) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 42 for 13 yards (30-T.Avery).
2nd · 0:13TEN +4% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short right to 16-T.Burks to DAL 11 for 30 yards (27-J.Kearse).
3rd · 2:10TEN +4% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-R.Woods for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ezekiel Elliott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 4:41 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:41Ezekiel Elliott·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd15:00Brett Maher·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.Overton+310–0
2nd1:08Randy Bullock·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+310–3
2nd0:02Randy Bullock·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+310–6
3rd8:52Dalton Schultz·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+717–6
4th12:03Dalton Schultz·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+724–13
4th6:28Brett Maher·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.Overton+327–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryTitans
Cowboys7–2Titans
361Total yards317
4.9Yards per play4.9
43%Success rate29%
62%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays8
21First downs17
1Sacks taken2
3Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Cowboys: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.16Titans: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Cowboys: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Cowboys: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.11Titans: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 74 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Titans’s 65 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Titans 3.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's blitz rate sent, 11.4%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 23.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Titans6.8%
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 0.8 pts, 7.1 points above their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.4 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup. PENALTY on TEN-30-T.Avery, Defensive Pass Interference, 51 yards, enforced at DAL 43 - No Play.
Q3 9:02 · Cowboys · 3rd & 19 at DAL 43 · gained nothing · +5.35 EP · +17.6% win probability
172 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 89 yards from the DAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0971%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0464%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.2535%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2450%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.4114%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.6660%
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 49
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 29
Cowboys6Titans0
Cowboys7Titans0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Titans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 27
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Titans 15
2nd quarter52 plays
Cowboys10Titans0
Field goal1 play
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Cowboys 21
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Titans 46
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Cowboys 47
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Cowboys 48
Cowboys10Titans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Cowboys 19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Titans 39
Cowboys10Titans6
Field goal3 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Cowboys 11
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Cowboys16Titans6
Cowboys17Titans6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Titans 6
Cowboys17Titans12
Cowboys17Titans13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Cowboys 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Titans 47
4th quarter48 plays
Cowboys23Titans13
Cowboys24Titans13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Titans 10
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Cowboys 40
Cowboys27Titans13
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Titans 27
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Titans 44
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Cowboys 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Titans 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -14
Closing total
41
Cowboys moneyline
-741
Titans moneyline
+563
Cowboys closed -14 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 41; the game landed 40 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; 0.03 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Cowboys 5 days · Titans 5 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Mike Vrabel
DAL +4% win prob
(:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 31. 31-K.Byard pushed ob at DAL 41 for 28 yards (73-Ty.Smith).
4th · 15:00TEN +3% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to TEN 41 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard; 28-J.Kalu). PENALTY on TEN-56-M.Rice, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.
