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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 17
It turned at Q4 1:21, 4th and 2, on Russell Wilson — 11.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:21, Chiefs +11.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:21 · 4th and 2
Russell Wilson
Chiefs
(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Blake Bell's 17-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Blake Bell17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+717–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 58 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chiefs 5.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's pass rate over expected, +24.4 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 16.1 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
KC's early-down pass rate, 76.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 4.8% in week 16 against 30.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-0.3 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 66 snaps
Chiefs24.4 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +13.7 vs their 10.7 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+2.01× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 86%
Tendencies room →Broncos63.5%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 52 early downs
Chiefs76.6%leaned — passed early · +14.4 vs their 62.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 46%
Tendencies room →Broncos30.2%leaned — faked the run · +12.0 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chiefs26.7%leaned — faked the run · +9.0 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Broncos50.0%leaned — went for it · +23.9 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 19.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 59%
Tendencies room →Broncos26.7%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs23.3%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 25.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 33%
Tendencies room →Broncos6.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs18.6%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
KC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 24.4 pts, 13.7 points above their season mean of 10.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
29/42, 328 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
10.6 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
26/38, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-12.5 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerick McKinnon banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 25.5 | −0.6 | 100% | — | 2% | 0% | 29/42, 328 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 23.6 | +7.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 222 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 27 yd, 2 TD |
| Jerick McKinnonRB · Receiving Back | 22.6 | +7.5 | 48% | 56% | 15% | 6% | 2 car, 4 yd · 5/6, 52 yd, 2 TD |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.5 | +4.3 | 53% | 60% | 17% | 30% | 3/6, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 12.9 | +4.2 | 45% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 9 car, 31 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 18 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | −4.4 | 87% | 91% | 24% | 20% | 7/10, 43 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | −2.6 | 60% | 53% | 17% | 0% | 12 car, 56 yd · 4/6, 16 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +3.3 | 32% | 33% | 10% | 15% | 4/4, 71 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | +0.3 | 89% | 95% | 22% | 10% | 7/8, 38 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 10.3 | +2.4 | 59% | 56% | 8% | 7% | 7 car, 34 yd · 3/3, 39 yd |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.7 | +5.8 | 13% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 1/1, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | −1.0 | 81% | 88% | 17% | 42% | 4/6, 44 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +0.1 | 25% | 24% | 10% | 3% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.5 | 34% | 33% | 8% | 9% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −7.4 | 83% | 87% | 17% | 37% | 2/7, 28 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.6 | 65% | 73% | 7% | 5% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.1 | 37% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 1/2, 27 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 3.0 | +0.1 | 19% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 55% | 47% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Ronald JonesRB | 0.3 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marlon MackRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 47% | 51% | 6% | 9% | 1 car, 0 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
Q4 1:21 · Broncos · 4th & 2 at DEN 45 · lost 9 · -3.55 EP · −19.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos0
Chiefs6Broncos3Chiefs6Broncos9Chiefs6Broncos10Chiefs6Broncos10Chiefs12Broncos10Chiefs13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos16Chiefs13Broncos17Chiefs13Broncos17Chiefs19Broncos17Chiefs20How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos17Chiefs26Broncos17Chiefs27Broncos23Chiefs27Broncos24Chiefs27How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/38 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −12.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Russell Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 17% | +1.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kareem Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/42 | 328 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_17_DEN_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -13.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 51 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 27 |
| 6.8 |
| 2 |
| +5.3 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| 17% |
| +1.1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 8% | +3.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 22% | −4.5 |
| Eric Saubert | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 17% | −2.6 |
| Andrew Beck | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Kendall Hinton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 10% | +4.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 6 | 52 | 2 | 15% | +6.1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 24% | −0.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 17% | −3.3 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | −3.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 2% | +2.1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2% | +0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Jones | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
