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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
Swing +11.5 for ChiefsExpected points +3.55 for ChiefsThe model had Broncos 10 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:21DEN +12% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
3rd · 6:41KC +11% win prob(6:41) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00KC +11% win prob(15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 81-B.Bell for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:50DEN +11% win prob(14:50) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed [8-C.Dunlap] at DEN 42. 38-L.Sneed to DEN 17 for 25 yards (14-C.Sutton). KC-38-L.Sneed was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2nd · 4:59KC +9% win prob(4:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to KC 6, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-K.Toney to KC 13 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton). FUMBLES (49-A.Singleton), RECOVERED by DEN-82-E.Saubert at KC 16.
2nd · 0:16DEN +8% win prob(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 36 for -8 yards (21-T.McDuffie). FUMBLES (21-T.McDuffie) [21-T.McDuffie], RECOVERED by KC-56-G.Karlaftis at KC 40. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Blake Bell's 17-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:42Isiah Pacheco·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+60–6
2nd10:51Brandon McManus·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–6
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Broncos: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.09Chiefs: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Broncos: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.18Chiefs: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Broncos: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.20Chiefs: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 58 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +24.4 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 16.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +20.1 pts in week 9.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 16.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 76.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 17 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 16.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 4.8% in week 16 against 30.2% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs18.6%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 24.4 pts, 13.7 points above their season mean of 10.7 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
73Cameron FlemingT · Every snap100%70 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%70 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
57Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time89%62 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
19Chase EdmondsRB · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
85Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson sacked−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
Q4 1:21 · Broncos · 4th & 2 at DEN 45 · lost 9 · -3.55 EP · −19.8% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
681
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2577%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1477%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.3173%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2165%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.1331%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Broncos0Chiefs6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Broncos 5
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 41
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 35
2nd quarter50 plays
Broncos3Chiefs6
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Chiefs 30
Intercepted8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 10
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 41
Broncos9Chiefs6
Broncos10Chiefs6
Touchdown2 plays
Broncos10Chiefs12
Broncos10Chiefs13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 6
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 28
No good2 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Broncos 33
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 48
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 24
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Broncos16Chiefs13
Broncos17Chiefs13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Chiefs 25
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Broncos 39
4th quarter45 plays
Broncos17Chiefs19
Broncos17Chiefs20
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Broncos17Chiefs26
Broncos17Chiefs27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 3
Broncos23Chiefs27
Broncos24Chiefs27
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 4
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
