2022 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 1, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Denver Broncos
24
Kansas City ChiefsWinner
27
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:21, DEN +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 1:21DEN +12% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
- Q3 · 6:41KC +11% win prob(6:41) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 15:00KC +11% win prob(15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 81-B.Bell for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 14:50DEN +11% win prob(14:50) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed [8-C.Dunlap] at DEN 42. 38-L.Sneed to DEN 17 for 25 yards (14-C.Sutton). KC-38-L.Sneed was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:42KC Touchdown
(7:42) 10-I.Pacheco right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — KC 6 - Q2 · 10:51DEN Field goal
(10:51) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — KC 6 - Q2 · 4:45DEN Touchdown
(4:45) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — KC 6 - Q2 · 1:08KC Touchdown
(1:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — KC 13 - Q3 · 6:41DEN Touchdown
(6:41) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 85-A.Okwuegbunam for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — KC 13 - Q4 · 15:00KC Touchdown
(15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 81-B.Bell for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — KC 20 - Q4 · 12:40KC Touchdown
(12:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — KC 27 - Q4 · 6:21DEN Touchdown
(6:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 24 — KC 27
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 66 | 58 |
| Total yards | 307 | 375 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.16 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Success rate | 36% | 52% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 78% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | 0.18 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.20 |
| Third downs | 3/12 (edge) | 2/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · KC
29/42, 328 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
10.6 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
26/38, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-12.5 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 17 | 5 | 5 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 35 | 11 | 65 | 5:42 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 16 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 4 | KC | KC 9 | 6 | 21 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 21 | 14 | 44 | 6:46 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | KC | KC 25 | 8 | 65 | 2:55 | Interception | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 20 | 7 | 21 | 3:06 | Punt | |
| 8 | DEN | KC 16 | 2 | 16 | 0:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | KC | KC 25 | 9 | 80 | 3:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 35 | 0:51 | Fumble | |
| 11 | KC | KC 40 | 2 | 27 | 0:11 | Missed field goal | |
| 12 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 2 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 24 | 6 | 29 | 2:43 | Punt | |
| 14 | KC | KC 20 | 4 | 4 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 37 | 7 | 59 | 3:48 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 2 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 17 | 4 | 9 | 2:38 | Punt | |
| 18 | KC | KC 35 | 7 | 65 | 3:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:19 | Interception | |
| 20 | KC | DEN 17 | 5 | 17 | 1:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 25 | 14 | 63 | 6:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 22 | KC | KC 25 | 7 | 16 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 23 | DEN | DEN 26 | 5 | 10 | 2:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | KC | DEN 36 | 4 | 11 | 1:19 | End of game |
8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Denver Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 26/38 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -12.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 2 | 5.3 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 17% | 1.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 17% | 1.1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 8% | 3.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 22% | -4.5 |
| Eric Saubert | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 8% | 1.5 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 17% | -2.6 |
| Andrew Beck | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Kendall Hinton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kareem Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/42 | 328 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 10% | 4.1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 6 | 52 | 2 | 15% | 6.1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 24% | -0.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 10% | 1.4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 17% | -3.3 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | -3.0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7% | 1.5 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | 1.7 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 2% | 2.1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2% | 0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | 0.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Clark | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalen Saunders | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Jones | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- KC -13.5
- Closing total
- 46
- DEN moneyline
- +544
- KC moneyline
- -711
Chiefs closed -13.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 51 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 47°F, wind 2 mph
- Referee
- Tra Blake
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · KC 8 days
- Coaches
- Jay Rosburg vs Andy Reid
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.